Kashmir is a class by itself. Pakistan’s role there is direct and therefore we are proactively dealing with the militant groups. In Assam, a ceasefire has no relevance."
—Union home minister L.K. Advani in Guwahati on February 5, 2001
Less than a month after this statement, the home minister is now aggressively pushing for a unilateral ceasefire with all militant groups in the northeast. Senior home ministry sources say that if all goes well, Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee should be announcing the ceasefire in Parliament.
What has made the Centre change its stand? Two factors are being cited here. One, elections to the Assam assembly are around the corner and therefore it is being seen as opportune to score some brownie points in the state by appearing magnanimous to the rebels. The other reason is that the ceasefire the government is observing since August 1997 with the dominant Naga rebel group, the Issac-Muivah faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (nscn), has not yielded results mainly because other groups have objected to only this faction being given importance. By extending the ceasefire to the other groups, the Centre hopes to overcome this objection.
But army officials point out that a unilateral ceasefire is difficult to implement since the northeast has a multiplicity of insurgent groups, each fighting for turf, often overlapping in influence and reach. Take the demand made by the nscn(im) that the ceasefire be extended to all areas inhabited by Naga tribes living in neighbouring states like Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh. By asking for a truce in these areas, the nscn(im) is seeking indirect endorsement of its goal for a ‘greater Nagaland’, an objective the other states are naturally opposed to.
As of now, the ceasefire with the nscn(im) covers only the geographical area of the state of Nagaland but the outfit wants it expanded so as to reflect the fuller ethnic spread. This was one of the preconditions put forward by the outfit while reframing the ground rules of the ceasefire late last year.
Not unexpectedly, the chief ministers of Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh had strongly objected to this during a special meet with the PM last December. Assam CM Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, who was again in New Delhi in early March, told the Centre: "Agreeing to extend the ceasefire to all the areas demanded by the nscn(im) will be giving credence to its aim for greater Nagaland. This we can’t agree to." Radha Binod Koijam, the new Manipur chief minister, and his Arunachal counterpart Mukut Mithi also had similar views. With such strong objections from the region, the easy way out for the Centre was to offer a unilateral ceasefire to all groups, irrespective of the states they are active in.
How the militant groups respond to this gesture is yet to be seen but by announcing the decision, the home ministry hopes to make some progress at least with the Naga groups. Besides the nscn(im), the Centre is likely to open talks with the other nscn faction led by S.S. Khaplang and the Naga Federal Group, in keeping with the view in Nagaland that all tribes and people must be included in any resolution of the five-decade-old problem. Says Nagaland chief minister S.C. Jamir: "The nscn(im) cannot be the sole arbiter of the Naga cause. All groups and opinions must be included in the negotiations." That’s a view the Centre has now, tentatively, come to accept.
In Assam, the response to the ceasefire offer from the two main outfits, the United Liberation Front of Asom and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland, is difficult to predict. In Manipur, the state government is already observing a month-long Holi ceasefire with the militants.
With at least 20-odd prominent groups operating here, the Centre’s decision may only yield a temporary respite from the violence that is part of the region’s day-to-day life. But in the home ministry’s view, the ceasefire offer will at least take care of the standard charge in the northeast that New Delhi gives too much importance to Kashmir and ignores the realities in the region. As one home ministry official put it: "Now, no one in the northeast can say that we do not treat the region seriously."
