To many, he's a frustrated scientist, to some others, a self-proclaimed seismologist. But
Dr Janardhan Ganpathrao Negi has accurately predicted quakes, the most recent one being Latur. The recipient of the prestigious Dr Bhatnagar Award and emeritus scientist at the National Geophysical Research Insitute is once again in the news. Negi says an earthquake measuring over 6 on the Richter scale is due soon in the Khandwa-Pandhana region of Madhya Pradesh. Speaking to Outlook, he laments the lack of a seismology institute along the lines of those in China and Japan. Excerpts:
Could you identify the fault zone in Khandwa?
The Godwani-Sutta fault has a record of seismic events. On November 8, 1863, an earthquake measuring 5.7 on the Richter scale hit Bolwani and another one south of this area on March 14, 1938. That's a gap of almost 75 years. You could say there is a written period on this fault, particularly of 65 plus-minus 10 years. On this basis, we expect fault activity further south, in the Sone-Narmada-Tapti basin. In the past two months, there have been more than 930 tremors in the area, 14 of them of over three on the Richter scale—a clear warning of an impending disaster. However, it would be difficult to determine the precise timing of the calamity.
So, you say earthquakes can be predicted?
Instead of "prediction", I prefer to say an estimate based on history and activities in the Indian shield. But the Maharashtra government has not taken our studies seriously, though the issue was raised in the winter session of the state assembly in 1993. In Madhya Pradesh, though, the government and NGOs have swung into action.
Is there any seismologist or agency close to predicting an earthquake?
The Chinese and the Japanese have often got it right. Similarly, Japan is taking several precautionary measures as part of a damage control exercise.
What should India do?
We should take similar steps as most parts of India are prone to seismic activity. But the Department of Science and Technology
hasn't taken any initiative to set up a panel of scientists for earthquake prediction and seismic disaster management. An institute to deal with seismic studies would be an appropriate step to ensure safety.
