Nine Lives Of The Cat?

It’s a much depleted alliance, but holding on tenuously for as long as it’s allowed to continue

Nine Lives Of The Cat?
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Standing By The PM

  • Manmohan had offered to resign in the wake of the Ashwani Kumar and Pawan Bansal episodes, but Sonia Gandhi persuaded him not to take any drastic step
  • Rahul wanted the ministers to resign in the wake of the scam, but didn’t want Manmohan to go 
  • The PM is ultimately a family loyalist, though he might differ with them on economic issues
  • The TINA factor works in Manmohan’s favour
  • Decision to carry on for as long as possible, not to be defensive, take on the Opposition
  • Push food security legislation

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When the prime minister of a country starts reciting poetry to journalists, at a bare minimum it generates a sense of a retrospective leisure, a moment of repose in the midst of crisis. On the occasion of the United Progressive Alliance’s ninth anniversary dinner, Manmohan Singh waxed lyrical like a man who had managed to negotiate a stormy journey on a choppy river. Iqbal, as always, was top of the menu. Manmohan’s choice fell on a significant line: “Sitaron se aage jahan aur bhi hai (there is a world beyond the dazzle of the stars).” Taken in the context of the tornado of scandals he has survived, he seemed to signal a readiness for ano­ther phase of his life, away from the hurly burly of power. If one were to reflect on the occasion through the prism of Hindustani poetry, other well-worn tropes would swim to mind. Majhi, sahil...or boatman/shore. UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi had been both to Man­mohan that evening. After the speeches, when the PM was headed to his dinner table, a scribe asked him if he was happy with the ringing endorsement from Sonia. Smiling, he replied he had expected nothing else.

All in all, a feeling of temporary  equilibrium was in the air. Indeed, sources reveal that during the most recent troubled phase of his reign, around the time he was left with no choice but to accept the resignations of his ministers Ashwani Kumar and Pawan Bansal, the PM did offer to resign but was persuaded not to by Sonia Gandhi. So, although a spate of stories persisted in sections of the media about the “great differences” between the two power centres, both Sonia Gandhi and Rahul were just looking for the opportunity to reaffirm faith in Manmohan.

Another well-placed source shares this revealing backstory to the sequence of events that followed. At the time, some weeks ago, when it appeared that the two ministers would not resign, Rahul was asked at a meeting with Congress veterans—should the ministers quit? His response was, yes, they should. So why don’t you tell the PM? he was asked next. “I have told the party president,” he said. A few days later, Sonia drove to the PM’s reside­nce, and the resignations were secured. One can only deduce that mem­bers of the first family made up their minds and then shared it with the PM.

Yet, to misconstrue the authority of the family as an assault on Race Course Road would be to misunderstand the nature of their relationship with Man­mohan Singh. As an insider explains, “When the media carry on about differences, they should not lose sight of the fact that this is actually a very smooth arrangement. There are natural differences in orientation on economic matters but it’s also a deliberate division of positions.” But the bottomline, as a veteran Congressman says, is that currently there is no alternative to Manmohan Singh. Which is why Sonia Gandhi said categorically: “The prime minister is carrying out his responsibilities with great dignity in the face of unrelenting hostility and abuse from the Opposition. We respect him, and we all stand by him.” She also said that stories of a rift between the party and the government were “made up by the media”.

Sonia’s words seemed to be directed not only at the BJP, but also at sections in the Congress that have been pushing for a change in leadership. Just that morning, parliamentary affairs minister Kamal Nath had said it was time for the party to project Rahul Gandhi as its candidate for PM in the next general elections. Well-placed sources, however, reveal that Rahul will not be projected as a PM candidate before the general election. He will remain the face of the campaign. Only after the results are out, and if the Congress has performed reasonably well, will Rahul be projected for an office. “It is a step by step plan that Madam will oversee, but Rahul will not be pushed into a situation that he may not be able to control,” says a senior leader.

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Mentor-pupil Rahul with Antony

Therefore, the TINA factor will work for Manmohan for as long as the current regime can pull on. The words Sonia used in her speech also suggested that the Food Security Bill is critical to the UPA and there will be another attempt to have it passed during the monsoon session. Kamal Nath would just say this: “We will get a bill and a law. It will be done.”

Currently, the thinking is that these are the slog overs and the government should stay for as long as is possible. Says a minister, “We will collapse only when the two Uttar Pradesh parties, the SP and the BSP, decide. Till then we will use this position to counter-attack the Opposi­tion as Madam did tonight.” Sonia’s speech certainly pleased the Congress leaders there. General secretary B.K. Hariprasad said with a big grin: “Counter-attack is the best form of def­ence. We have a lot of life left in us yet.”

Still, the depleting number of allies was all too visible at the dinner on the rcr lawns. Over the years, the evening has started with speeches by the PM and Sonia, moved on to the release of the UPA report card, followed by the ministers, allies, politicians and invited journalists moving to the several round tables scattered across the lawns, the heat under control with the help of powerful coolers. Sonia always sits on a table flanked by the allies. This year, with troublesome allies such as the Trinamool Congress and DMK having left at one point or the other, the table looked quite empty. There were Farooq Abdullah, Sharad Pawar and Laloo Prasad Yadav, but all the seats were not filled till the others decided to take the seats. The PM occupied another table. Inciden­tally, former railway minister Bansal too was present but not ex-law minister Ashwani Kumar.

As always, it was Laloo Prasad Yadav who was the most enthusiastic about the Congress, never mind that a section of the party is sending feelers to his great rival, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar. “We will still support the Congress as our fight is for secularism,” said Laloo. Asked by this correspondent if he would project his sons as Mulayam Singh Yadav has successfully done in Uttar Pradesh, Laloo, without a pause, shot back: “Abhi to hum jawan hain (I am still young).”

On a more serious note, however, parties like his know that they have no choice but to be on the side of the Congress. For the same reason perhaps, Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah had flown down from Srinagar for the dinner. He says he has several issues with the Delhi regime such as the execution of Afzal Guru, and a general insensitivity to Kashmiri sentiment. Although his father did work with the Atal Behari Vajpayee-led NDA, it’s hard to see the National Conference going with the current BJP.

It is because of the bankruptcy on the other side that the Congress still believes there is something to be fought for. The PM is tired, but he will not be retired in the immediate future.

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