The latest bout of belligerence from the aiadmk is seen in the backdrop of Jayalalitha's seven-minute meeting with Sonia Gandhi at Subramanian Swamy's tea party in Delhi early last week. Many believe that Jayalalitha's added stridency stems from the fact that a deal has been brokered with the Congress. This is denied by the aicc. But an April 2 statement from the aiadmk plays on just this point:
"Please be assured that the aiadmk is not worried about alternative alliances or fresh elections. There are tested friends from the past, who have in 1996 been cleansed of undesirable elements, who can be our allies," it said, in a none-too-oblique reference to G.K. Moopanar's rebellion.
Vajpayee's calculation, of course, is that Jayalalitha is only "using" the meeting with Sonia to up her ante; sabre rattling, if you will, and that the "mature thing to do is ride out the storm". But the fact is a large section of the bjp, led by L.K. Advani and including nearly the entire party hierarchy, is furious that they are being taunted at each turn by the aiadmk supremo. Their discomfort at the public perception of their party as one willing to suffer all forms of humiliation to stay in power is growing ever stronger. Says a relatively younger bjp leader: "It is we who will suffer. We have to fight elections and practise politics for the next 20 years."
Like in the past, Vajpayee sought to cool tempers even at the cost of self-embarrassment. Jayalalitha had taken umbrage over Union power minister P.R. Kumaramangalam's remarks to the electronic media which amounted to asking her to quit the government if she did not agree with its decisions. Vajpayee was quick to bow to the aiadmk's express demand that he dissociate himself from the statement and call it a "personal view". The PM's placatory statement was issued in less than an hour after the aiadmk headquarters released a stinging statement signed by eight senior functionaries on April 1.
But tempers have not quite cooled in Chennai. Senior aiadmk leaders held a meeting with Jayalalitha on April 2 at which, according to sources, it was informally decided that the party should demand a public apology from Kumaramangalam "for trespassing his limits". Says a senior party leader: "We know that Ranga (Kumaramangalam) made those statements at the behest of Advani. It was Jayalalitha who helped him win the Trichy seat and not Advani.We won't permit this go on."
The issue is far from resolved. Senior aiadmk leaders say the party will also start demanding apologies from bjp allies over the next few weeks. The Lok Shakti and Samata will be the first in the firing line. "We'll make it clear that we are the victims in this uneven coalition. Despite being the second largest party, we have only one cabinet minister and one minister of state. We haven't got our due because our leader is the most transparent...and refuses to be confined to state issues, raising national concerns," says a former aiadmk minister.
It was also made clear that the party would pursue the case of former navy chief Vishnu Bhagwat's sacking. The idea is to make the going tough for the bjp when Parliament's budget session resumes on April 15—that is, if they are not provided enough reason to call a truce. "We'll take up the issues Jayalalitha raised in Delhi. There'll be no change in our stand," a senior party leader told Outlook.
To understand Vajpayee's cup of woes, one only has to look at the list of demands Jayalalitha brought to Delhi. Chief among these:
Tough call, this. Giving in will mean Vajpayee has to go against the mood of his party and allies. Even his aides concede that the break will have to come sooner or later, unless the Congress lets Jayalalitha down with a thud. In fact, Vajpayee is known to be sceptical of the glib way in which sundry leaders of his party and coalition are insisting that the government will survive "even if Jayalalitha withdraws support".
Says an aide to the PM: "This talk of breaking the aiadmk, Janata Dal and bsp, and getting the dmk-tmc to support us is all very well, but the Bihar vote did send the alarm bells ringing" (see chart). The other factor that seems to weigh with an image-conscious pmo is that even if they do manage to survive, it will have to be a result of "tod-phod" (breaking parties). Harking back as it does to the Narasimha Rao days, this is something the PM may not agree to. He may even consider recommending dissolution of the Lok Sabha and a mid-term poll.
This is the reason, say sources, that Vajpayee is confident of reigning in allies such as Samata, Trinamul and Hegde, none of whom particularly want an election at the moment. The aiadmk, the logic goes, may be willing to risk an early election if it can manage an alliance with the Congress.
That this a central calculation of the aiadmk as well is quite clear. Though, as a senior aiadmk strategist in Chennai says, "if Sonia refuses to align with us in a coalition or even for an election, there's no way we can file a case against her, you see". A section of the Congress is wary of having the situation spinning out of control—this is the school of thought that says "we only wanted to destabilise a government which was acquiring a degree of coherence". Others cite the fact that the high command has directed state units to organise rallies against alleged corruption in the defence ministry and the Bhagwat sacking as an indication that Sonia is serious.
But to get back to the bjp, Vajpayee is also being put on the defensive by his own partymen. Says a leader who has been one of the most vociferous against the aiadmk over the past week: "Our main ally hobnobs with the principal opposition, speaks of political earthquakes and changing equations being in the offing, threatens to withdraw support within one hour if the PM doesn't come to heel and nearly mentions the Congress by name as a prospective partner. And we do nothing!" This, some fear, may become a habit.
The refrain seemed to be that the interests of the party—and, in the long run, of the coalition—are being sacrificed. The riposte from Vajpayee's admirers is predictable: that the bjp is a political party which aims for power, and if it is not in power, it can't implement its promises. This thin line between tactical compromise and abject surrender reflects the divide within—one that seemed to have subsided lately, but sharpened all over again by Jayalalitha's antics.
As for Jayalalitha, aiadmk leaders says her Delhi trip was a calculated move to chart out a future course. "In our assessment, the bjp is on the downslide and the Congress is slowly but steadily moving centrestage," says an aiadmk cabinet minister. According to him, the Bhagwat issue has given Jayalalitha a "national" as opposed to a "personal" issue. Plus, the ultra-nationalist credentials of the bjp have been dented somewhat with talk of shady defence deals and the shabby treatment meted out to the ex-navy chief.
All this puts Jaya in an enviable position where both major parties, Congress and bjp, are perceived to be wooing her and, as a result, both will find it difficult to raise corruption allegations against her. The bonus is that in Tamil Nadu, the Delhi visit has helped drive a wedge between the dmk and Congress, who were showing signs of coming close after nearly 20 years, and has put another aiadmk rival, the tmc, in the dock. The fringe benefit is that attention has been deflected from Jayalalitha's alleged attack on her auditor and the scandalous behavior of an aiadmk legislator who assaulted a minister inside the assembly.
The turn of events over the next few days will hinge on three main factors: whether Jayalalitha decides it's time to leave the bjp coalition; whether a Congress-aiadmk deal either for an alternative government or a poll fructifies; and whether the pressure on Vajpayee from within his party to part ways with the aiadmk abates. Of course, with the protagonists being a Vajpayee very interested in saving his government and an unpredictable Jaya, an all's-well-for-now scenario could well be scripted.
With Ishan Joshi in New Delhi and A.S. Panneerselvan in Chennai
