Laloo's Last Stand

Laloo didn't have an inkling of Kidwai's move. Around 6 pm on June 17, when Bihar's DGP S.K. Saxena whispered into the chief minister's ears, he could not hide his disbelief. Kidwai had appended his signature to the car demand to prosecute him and three others-Vidhya Sagar Nishad and Bhola Ram Toofani (his Cabinet colleagues) and Chandradeo Prasad Verma (Union minister of state for urban employment)--39 days after the CBI petitioned the governor.

To pre-empt possible violence, Kidwai instructed Saxena and state chief secretary B.P. Verma to despatch additional paramilitary forces. This was enough for Laloo to smell a conspiracy. Kidwai's go-ahead had come at a difficult time--Laloo couldn't get through to prime minister I.K. Gujral who was away in Jabalpur in the company of Laloo's friend-turned-bete noire Sharad Yadav, and the Budget session of the state assembly was just six days away.

Laloo now fights a three-pronged battle: with the United Front (including Gujral) which wants him to quit; with the Opposition which wants him out of power and in jail; and with the CBI which Laloo says has acted as a political tool in the hands of his detractors. On June 19, Laloo's lawyers got into the act and sought anticipatory bail on his behalf.

If Laloo's rural folk are standing by him, his detractors are showing their fangs. A 15-party front, that includes the BJP and the ultra-left CPI(ML), is baying for his ouster. "Laloo either quits or faces public wrath," says Samata Party leader Shivanand Tiwari.

But the chief minister is in a combative mood. He wooed 100 of his 167 JD MLAs and a majority of the 61 district JD chiefs to descend on Patna to demand the resignation of MP Sharad Yadav, who faces Laloo in the election for the party president's post, before July 3. "Laloo cannot be held guilty purely on the basis of the CBI's baseless findings. He should be allowed to continue till the court pronounces him guilty," the resolution said. And that Sharad, a "political refugee", should quit his Lok Sabha membership in Bihar and try his luck elsewhere. Laloo loyalists, including MLAs, launched a diatribe against most dissident leaders, drawing mainly on their 'corrupt' ways and 'extra-marital affairs'.

With neither side willing to budge an inch, the JD split is a formality. Which also spells the end of Sharad and Laloo's symbiotic relationship: Sharad was instrumental in Laloo becoming chief minister for the first time in March 1990; Laloo paid him back by gifting him a safe Lok Sabha seat in '96 after he had lost in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

Laloo has made every attempt to convince the Bihari masses that Sharad is not as committed to social justice and secularism as him. "I told them to implement the Mandal Commission report when Devi Lal was creating problems for the VP Singh government. Only then did VP accept the report." Laloo also accuses Sharad of opposing L.K. Advani's arrest in October 1990 during his rath yatra, on the plea that the JD would lose power "I will not allow Sharad to take over as the party president at any cost. Is he fit to be my leader?" asks an incredulous Laloo.

At the Centre, Gujral, himself from the JD, is in a bind. He knows he cannot shield Laloo once the prosecution has been sanctioned; but he also won't lift a finger against Laloo unless the Congress--to which the UF looks for survival--calls for it like UF constituents, the Left and some UF leaders, did. Yet, within the limitations of his powers, he sent quite an oblique but assertive message against Laloo. On June 20, Gujral sent a fax to Verma, currently in Patna, to put in his papers in view of the governor's move. Verma complied six hours later, faring his resignation to the prime minister. "I am innocent. But I resigned in deference to the prime minister's wishes," said Verma.

Gujral also put pressure on Laloo through senior UF leaders, including three chief ministers--M. Karunanidhi (Tamil Nadu), Chandrababu Naidu (Andhra Pradesh) and Jyoti Basu (West Bengal). But Laloo told the prime minister that he was not going to oblige anyone and that he would welcome dismissal of the government as well as the state assembly at his own risk.

Laloo supporters go one step forward. "What if the CBI probes Gujral's declaration that he was a resident of Patna to get into the Rajya Sabha? Can the CBI be given a free hand to subvert a democratically elected government? Bihar will burn, and blood will flow on the streets of Patna if the Centre dislodges Laloo," they threaten ominously Laloo is wily enough to that if his men create a law and order problem, it will give an adequate handle to the Centre to dismiss his government and impose Central rule under Article 356. So, he has urged them to be calm and keep the protests peaceful.

Laloo has ruled the state for more than seven years now. And his second tenure, which began in January 1995, gave him a clear majority as by then he had cobbled together a potent combination-the MYD (Muslim-Yadav-Dalit) factor--which won a majority in more than 250 of the 324 constituencies. Despite the fact that Laloo marginalised other Yadav leaders like Sharad and Devendra Prasad Yadav, the MYD combine still pins its hopes on Laloo. That is why the dissidents-21 legislators have so far come out openly against him-have not yet been able to penetrate Laloo's votebase.

But Laloo's toughest test lies in his ability to build up a people's movement--after the CBI has projected him as "corrupt". The people who throng Patna streets with placards and green scarves are a trifle confused with the brouhaha. Yet Laloo is their only hope--a hero who spends Rs 200 crore on saris and dhotis to distribute free among the poor. After recruiting over 6,000 Yadavs in the state police force, he also has official muscle backing him.

JD dissidents claim they cannot adopt a strident anti-Laloo stand because he uses both the police and party supporters to terrorise them. So far, seven ministers have revolted, but they have either been sacked or had to step down. And no combination seems in a position to form a government if Laloo is dismissed. The BJP, the key opposition party has 40 members in the 324-assembly followed by 29 of the Congress. Sushil Modi, leader of the Opposition, and B]P State general secretary Saryu Roy filed a public interest litigation seeking Laloo's prosecution. But the faction-ridden BJP does not seem capable of mobilising a movement. The BJP and other Opposition parties--with the exception of the CPI(ML)--have only tried to invoke a moral response from Laloo. Their protest is token; it nowhere matches the protest Laloo proposes in his support.

"It is shameful, unfortunate and unprecedented that a chief minister moves court for anticipatory bail. He should quit forthwith," says dissident JD leader Inder Singh Namdhari who resigned from the cabinet demanding Laloo's resignation. Namdhari also met the governor along with five others on June 20, pointing out that he shouldn't entertain a recommendation from Laloo for dissolution of the assembly as he had now forfeited the right to continue as chief minister with his prosecution impending. Namdhari and the rebels have aligned with Sharad. "He has taken money from the Jains in the hawala case. Why doesn't he quit politics?" quips Laloo.

The Supreme Court directive on June 18 appointing S. Jaipal Reddy and Madhu Dandavate as observers for the party presidential elections also came as a rude shock to Laloo as a delay would have helped him hang in there. Laloo had initially agreed to step down if Sharad backed out of the contest. Sharad pooh-poohed the idea: "It is totally out of the question. How can I discourage so many party workers who have reposed their faith in me?"

In fact, the Congress also came up with a half-hearted proposal: let Laloo continue as JD chief and nominate someone of his choice as chief minister. The anti-laloo faction vetoed it. Congress chief Sitaram Kesri's soft corner for Laloo is well-known. Kesri is aware that Laloo can help fulfil his prime ministerial ambitions if he continues to command the support of a chunk of Bihar MPs. There are indications that Laloo has half of the state's 32 MPs on his side. Thus the Congress' belated, feeble demand for Laloo's ouster. "We have made our position clear. The followup action has to be decided by the state unit," said Tariq Anwar, Kesri's political secretary. But Congress' Bihar unit is incapable of tackling Laloo on his turf.

Laloo does not have much love left for the JD. With the party's Orissa unit orphaned by Biju Patnaik's death, and Karnataka a divided house, its national identity is under a cloud. Laloo will stick to his chair as long as the Centre does not act-hereby hangs another tale. Gujral, to continue as DM, needs the Congress. But if Gujral takes on Laloo and the JD splits, it will give Kesri an opportunity to strike at the UF earlier than expected. And if Gujral acts, Laloo will fight back. If he doesn't he will be accused of abetting corruption. As for Laloo, his bravado notwithstanding, he is prepared for the worst--dismissal or arrest. Only, he won't give in without a fight.