Laloo’s Waterloo?

Political observers claim that the emergence of Janata Dal (United), with the merger of the Samata Party and the Sharad Yadav-Ram Vilas Paswan faction of the Janata Dal in Bihar, has introduced a new element into the political chemistry of the state. And for the first time an alternative to Laloo, who was hitherto considered invincible, seems a possibility.

The NDA optimism, therefore, is not misplaced. For instance, in the last Lok Sabha polls the BJP-Samata combine had won 30 seats and the Janata Dal one, but it’s the percentage of votes which is more significant. The BJP had polled 24.03 per cent votes, the Samata Party 15.74, whereas the Janata Dal had received about eight per cent of the total votes polled. So this time, the extra eight per cent votes, which is likely to accrue to the BJP-Samata combine, may spring the surprise result.

While talking to Outlook in Hajipur, where he is pitted against Ramai Ram, rJD candidate, Dalit leader and former colleague, Paswan predicts a split in the rJD after the Lok Sabha polls and fall of the Rabri-led rJD government in Bihar before the assembly elections next March. Says he: "The writing is on the wall. These Lok Sabha polls will be the beginning of the end of jungle raj in Bihar." Paswan is fighting once again from the reserved Hajipur constituency. Last year, he received more than 60 per cent of the votes polled in Hajipur, enabling him to claim that he has a substantial Dalit following in the state.

The transition of the Sharad Yadav-Ram Vilas Paswan faction of the Janata Dal, from a virulently anti-BJP formation to a constituent of the NDA, has, however, been far from smooth. After weeks of bickering and conflicting statements and a series of meetings, it finally reached a seat-sharing arrangement with the BJP to consolidate the anti-Laloo votes in the state. The party, under the agreement, is fighting on 25 seats, having left the rest of the 29 constituencies to the BJP. Significantly, it has not fielded any candidate in south Bihar. All its 25 seats fall in the north-central part of the state. "Of the 25 seats, the party would get not less than 20," claims Nitish Kumar, former railway minister. This, according to him, will be due to the combined impact of the anti-incumbency factor and the backward and Dalit votes.

The voters of Barh are, however, not very impressed with their MP Nitish. "This election will prove costly for Nitish. He has not done anything for the constituency even after being a Union railway minister. In fact, he hasn’t even visited Barh to meet his voters," says local resident Ramesh Sharma. Much to Nitish’s embarrassment, a local leader of the constituency shouted before everyone: "Nitishji sirf image-building se kaam nahin chalta hai."

Nitish, however, clarifies that his voters are in the taal (gangetic land) areas where the media seldom treads. Fumes he, "My voters are poor backward people who live in the interior areas, you go there and ask them about me." But the fact of the matter is that realising the situation Nitish Kumar preferred to give the party ticket from Begusarai to an influential new entrant from the Congress, Bhumihar leader ShyamsuNDAr Singh Dheeraj, while neglecting his party president Ram Jivan Singh’s claim, just to consolidate Bhumihar support, a caste with a sizeable presence in Barh. Ram Jivan Singh predictably resigned in protest.

The situation for the new formation is different in two other constituencies where veteran JD(u) leaders are in the fray: Madhepura and NalaNDA. Observers say that Laloo’s ride in Madhepura, from where he had defeated Sharad Yadav by a margin of 55,000 votes in the last Lok Sabha polls, may not be easy. Things are not going entirely in his favour this time.

Though Laloo still commands a lot of support in his constituency, the chemistry this time is not as favourable compared to what he has seen in the past. During the last elections, Samata candidate N.K. Singh had garnered 61,000 votes—which facilitated Laloo’s hefty margin against Sharad. This time, however, the fight is head on between the two Yadav chieftains. There is another Yadav in the fray though—Suraj Yadav, grandson of late B.P. MaNDAl, author of the MaNDAl Commission—but the two Yadav bosses are not taking him very seriously.

But it is defence minister George Fernandes, who, by far, has the cosiest scenario. He is pitted against cpi candidate Gaya Singh. Interestingly, the latter is being supported by the rJD, despite the fact that their seat-sharing agreement fell through. Even though Singh has a clean image, the caste equation does not suit him. Supported by Kurmis (around 3.7 lakh out of a total 11 lakh votes), Fernandes had won in ’96 and later in ’98 from this constituency. This time also, the Kurmi voters, represented by their leader Nitish Kumar, seem to be in Fernandes’ favour and the Muslim (around 85,000) votes, which have also decided the fate of the elections here, seem to be divided.

Laloo is not rattled by this adverse situation confronting him. Says he: "BJP-JD(u) will not able to cross the mark of 10 in my state and we’re going to sweep the poll this time in the wake of Vajpayee’s Kargil fiasco." Commenting on the formation and future of the JD(u) he says: "Their future is bleak as they have more leaders than voters. After the election, you will see how they will again be disunited." But he is definitely anxious. Addressing his party functionaries in Patna before starting his election campaign, Laloo declared: "If you lose this election there would be no second chance for us." But will the JD(u)’s gain, in that case, mean victory for Bihar? It will be a while before this question is answered.