EVERY poll pundit agrees that the forthcoming mid term poll, the third in three years, will be a tussle bet ween Atal Behari Vajpayee and Sonia Gandhi. This time around, unlike in 1998 when she was merely the Congress’ star campaigner, Sonia is not only the Congress president but is also seen to be projected as its prime ministerial candidate, though it’s not official as yet. And as the battlelines are drawn, it is becoming increasingly evident that the BJP and its allies would like to pitch this battle as one between Vajpayee the Indian and Sonia the "Italian". The "swadeshi" versus "videshi" debate is already hotting up among the urban middle class and is likely to be a key poll issue. But how effective this plan will be as a vote- catcher is yet uncertain.
Very clearly, Sonia Gandhi seems to have an equal share of supporters as well as detractors. There are others who feel that they may not support her not because of her foreign origins but because of the question marks over her ability to govern. An opinion poll commissioned by Outlook shows that the nation is divided over Sonia.
The Congress is aware that its president’s foreign origin is sure to be not only raised but whipped up in the campaign against it. Already, the Akalis have stated that the "Italian aspect" will be one of their planks. In Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu has vowed to fight against any "foreigner" heading the country. ‘Italian is not Indian’ is going to be the TDP ’s battle- cry.
As for the BJP , its strategy— despite Vajpayee’s preference for a more sober approach ( See interview, page 18 )— is that it will exploit the issue to the hilt. Says party vice- president J. P. Mathur: "Sonia as PM is a security risk to the nation. Her loyalty will be split between Italy, the country of her birth, and India, her adopted home. Are not the N R Is in the US and UK loyal to India? There is no objection to her acceptability as a foreign - born citizen if she was aspiring for any other job. But the prime minister is a person to whom the nation’s most crucial secrets are revealed; Sonia in that position will be susceptible to pre s s u re from other countries."
On cue, the VHP has got into the act. At an informal meeting in Delhi last week, it decided that it would "take the issue to the people". Their message will be that while Rahul and Priyanka, if they so choose, can be "tolerated" because they were born in India, there is no question of accepting Sonia as PM. Sangh sympathisers in the BJP like Uma Bharati put the issue beyond doubt: "I will personally go from door to door to prevent Sonia becoming PM." It is left to Sangh ideologue and BJP general secretary K.N. Govind-acharya to try and rationalise what seems to be developing into anoholds - barred anti-Sonia campaign: "The point is that there is a genuine groundswell of revulsion that the Congress can’t find an ‘Indian’ leader. In fact, I would draw a parallel between the very unfortunate feeling in the country against scheduled castes in the late ’70s when Jagjivan Ram was sought to be projected by the Janata Party as PM and the attempt to foist Sonia as PM."
The hate campaign has made its way to the Net, with sites showing computer-morphed pornographic pictures of Sonia. And in urban middle-class circles, there is a conscious effort to run her down and blame the Congress for attempting to impose a foreigner as the nation’s leader.Says former Test cricketer E.A.S. Prasanna, "Congressmen should have a thoroughbred Indian politician as their leader. Sonia wasn’t interested in politics, so why have her to lead the party?" Adds Shivshankar Bhat, a retired judge of the Delhi High Court: "Instinctively, I would say she cannot be the prime minister. My personal opinion is that she is immature, going by the way she has taken other parties for granted."
Hindi litterateur Nirmal Verma believes that Sonia is unsuited for the top job. Says he: "Her behaviour in recent months speaks of sheer opportunism and lust for power. I don’t think Sonia has any understanding of India as a country or the traditions of the Congress. It would be a great pity and misfortune if she becomes prime minister. The tragedy of the Congress is that it has lost its sense of dignity." Playwright Mahesh Dattani does not think the ethnic question is an issue. However, he has doubts about Sonia’s ability to govern. "She has lived in India for two decades as a housewife and not as a politician. It would be like Rabri Devi who was a housewife and now heads a proxy government . "
SO far so good for the BJP. But opinions can have surprising breadth as you travel beyond the city. A cursory survey of a handful of villages in Haryana and Rajasthan can’t by any stretch be re g a rded as a national barometer. But the response to questions on Sonia put to village folk by an Outlook team elicited a response contrary to what one would expect from a similar exercise among the urban middle class. Here are some of the reasons they cited for approving / disapproving of Sonia as prime minister:
Surprisingly, there were next to no takers for the ‘Italian and so unfit to be prime minister’ thesis, although it is still early days to conclude that the same will not become an issue once the campaigning hots up.
And many reject the "foreigner" tag outright. "She showed forthrightness and honesty in the whole post-confidence motion scenario by not bending to the forces of coalition which has been the country’s bane for the past three years. I don’t care what the BJP says about her being a foreigner," is the unequivocal response of the grand old man of Indian theatre, Habib Tanvir. And there is a chorus of support for this sentiment.
"Sonia Gandhi is an Indian citizen. There ’s no bar in her becoming what she wants to be," says former Delhi police commissioner Ved Marwah. "She is as Indian as any leader in any party today, perhaps more so in my view than those who have not the courage to lead a party and country the size of the Congress and India," says Bashir Badr, the well-known Urdu poet. Adds jurist Nani Palkhivala: "There is nothing against Sonia if she is Italian-born. She has lived almost all her life in India. I won’t hold her Italian background against her." Madhu Kishwar, editor of Manushi, says: "We are not a xenophobic people.During the freedom movement, many foreigners like C. F. Andrews , Annie Besant and Miraben were welcomed. My reservations against Sonia are as a political leader and not on account of her origins."
In the main, those who do not subscribe to the BJP-VHP-RSS stand-point feel that the electorate should be allowed to make their choice on its own. Says noted Marathi playwright Vijay Tendulkar: "I know that there is a lot nationalist feeling involved but that is a matter of detail. African or Italian, I’ll decide on other grounds who should be my prime minister." Director M.S. Sathyu’s view is that her Italian birth is a non-issue: "For most voters, the geographical origin is not important. Sonia is seen by the people as the bahu of the Nehru family. The BJP will use the videshi card but it will be in bad taste. I think it will be cheap."
But how far is the ‘not-India-born’ factor going to work against the Congress? Arjun Singh, who spearheaded the failed effort to push Sonia into power after the fall of the Vajpayee government, is quick to acknowledge that the party cannot run away from the fact that Sonia was born in Italy. However, he holds that the Congress will be able to project Sonia as the rightful inheritor of the Gandhi-Nehru legacy and harp on the fact that she has spent 30 years of her life in India to counter the BJP offensive.
A view shared by senior Congress leader Madhavrao Scindia: "I thought the issue of Sonia being an Italian was settled long ago. After all, a political leader who is approved by the AICC and later by the CWC and ratified by the people in assembly elections in three states proves that all this does not matter." Other senior partymen also hope that the foreigner issue will come a cropper. Says Shivraj Patil, MP and former Lok Sabha Speaker: "Indians are broadminded and as the results of the last assembly elections indicate, this is a non-issue. In fact, I think if the issue is raised it will prove counter-productive."
The Congress’ confidence stems from the Maharashtra experience. During the last Lok Sabha polls, Bal Thackeray’s main plank was Sonia’s foreign origins. The Sena chief even lampooned her at every meeting, going to the extent of mimicking her Italian accent. The net result was quite opposite to the Sena-BJP calculations. The Congress won a landslide victory.
This is why the softliners in the BJP feel that the Italian card should be played very subtly and that it could boomerang if it were to become a vitriolic and personal attack. Indeed, there are those who hold the view that Vajpayee will not be too keen to overplay the foreigner angle. Observes former election commissioner R.K. Trivedi :
"As far as the BJP stalwarts are concerned, I doubt whether they will get down to such gimmicks. I for one am sure that Vajpayee will never resort to banking on such issues. For that matter, the BJP leader will never use arguments which have no legal backing." According to him, legally there is no bar against Sonia contesting elections.
And then there is the accompanying dilemma for liberals, mainly in urban India, who have no problem with Sonia’s foreign origins but are deeply disturbed by the sexist reasoning — on the lines of ‘a woman is like a cow; she belongs to the house into which she goes (marries)’— cited by those who say her Italian birth is not an issue.
Although Congressmen do take some comfort from what happened in Maharashtra, there is no denying that the BJP’s swadeshi-versus-videshi campaign has generated deep apprehension among party MPs, several of whom are convinced that the Sonia factor may only bring them marginal gains in the Lok Sabha poll. The incongruous sight of a few Congress MPs congratulating Samajwadi Party and RSP leaders for their intransigence, which prevented the formation of a Sonia-led government, is an index of the discomfort in the party. There are also fears that the VHP-RSS could exploit the issue and leave the Congress no better off than it was at the end of the last elections.
The party is also preparing to blunt the BJP campaign and the Youth Congress has been activated to counter any offensive at the grass roots. One issue likely to be raised through a whisper campaign is that of Vajpayee appearing as a prosecution witness in an Agra court and testifying against freedom fighters. This allegedly happened in the pre-independence era. However, senior Congressmen deny that the party would stoop so low to garner votes.
Some in her party may have their misgivings about Sonia, but whatever they say in off - the - record asides to journalists, virtually every Congressman is dependent on Sonia for she is their star campaigner. And with Priyanka and Rahul Gandhi likely to accompany her on the campaign trail, the emotive appeal of the ‘Nehru-Gandhi dynasty is back’ slogan will be the Congress USP. Its success or failure will be determined by the inclination of a harried electorate which is being asked to stamp its ballot all too frequently.
