By ZAFAR MERAJ in Srinagar
WITH Delhi having formally announced assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir starting the first week of September, confusion prevails in the rank and file as well as the leadership of the National Conference (NC) over whether it should participate in the polls. The party had earlier boycotted the Lok Sabha elections on the ground that conditions were not conducive for free and fair polls. But now a section in the NC believes that the party cannot continue to ignore elections and remain out of power. A final decision on whether the party will take part in the poll process will be taken by the NC working committee which is meeting in Srinagar this week.
For the moment, no NC leader is willing to comment on what the working committee decision is likely to be. Prior to the announcement of elections, party chief Farooq Abdullah was categoric that at least the broad parameters of the autonomy package for Kashmir, promised by the United Front Government in its common minimum programme, would have to be defined before his party takes the plunge. Abdullah is not spelling out anything clearly just now. Says he: "Anything can happen. It is up to the working committee to decide." He says he cannot categorically state at this juncture whether his party will boycott the polls or not.
But, according to sources, senior NC leaders have been meeting the Left parties in Delhi to put pressure on the Deve Gowda Government to yield to some of its demands. The Left is keen that the NC participates in the polls and the grapevine has it that the Centre is likely to make some concessions, including the NC demand that Gen. K.V. Krishna Rao be replaced as the governor of Jammu and Kashmir and an assurance be given that elections will be free and fair.
The NC has been dismissive of the Lok Sabha elections in the Valley. The party's line is that the polls were rigged. No wonder then that Abdullah reacted sharply to statements by Prime Minister Deve Gowda and Minister of State for Home Mohammed Maqbool Dar who have been citing the smooth conduct of the Lok Sabha polls to justify the immediate conduct of assembly elections. Points out Abdullah: "The parliamentary election was a total fraud and there was no participation of the people. God only knows what will happen if the same thing is repeated in the assembly elections."
Although Abdullah has now chosen to adopt a cautious approach on elections and the autonomy issue—leaving all options open—his close associates fear that the assembly elections could be rigged. As a senior party leader and a former minister puts it: "We know what the Centre is up to. I was told by a very senior intelligence official that even if we take part in the elections it will be seen to it that we win no more than 18 seats. He even named the specific constituencies from where our candidates would win. What is the fun of participating in any election in which the results have been decided much in advance?"
Such apprehensions have been described in Delhi as baseless. Indeed, the Delhi stand as articulated by Dar, who seems to be advising the Prime Minister on Kashmir, is that not only would elections be held in a conducive manner but that after the polls, the autonomy package could be worked out with the government which comes to power.
Not everyone is happy with the new Government's stand on Kashmir. Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, former Union home minister and senior Janata Dal leader, expressed his displeasure by refusing to accompany Deve Gowda on his maiden visit to Kashmir. The former minister is among those who are of the view that a dialogue with Kashmiri leaders should necessarily precede elections. Says he: "New Delhi should try to win the hearts of Kashmiris rather than demonstrate its might." Sayeed also advocates a dialogue with the All-Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC) before the elections.
This is the same line taken by former prime minister V.P. Singh. His contention is that New Delhi should try to win back those people who have been advocating secession. Singh took the initiative by having a discussion with prominent APHC leader Shabir Shah this May, against the advice of the authorities in Srinagar. However, according to sources, V.P. Singh's writ on Kashmir does not hold good with Deve Gowda.
SENIOR state Janata Dal leaders, including its chief, Abdul Qayoom, are also learnt to be agitated over the confusing stand taken by the party's central leadership on the Kashmir autonomy issue. Qayoom is said to have threatened to quit the party in case the Centre does not spell out its plans about autonomy before going ahead with the polls. The Left parties have already made their stand clear on the issue and have made no bones about their total support to Farooq Abdullah. Yusuf Tarigami, CPI(M) leader, and CPI State Secretary Abdul Rehman have even suggested forming a united front of all like-minded parties in Kashmir.
The NC with the APHC are the two major political groupings still doubtful about participating in the elections. The two had earlier boycotted the Lok Sabha polls. This time round, the APHC has been very categorical in saying no to elections despite speculation that it may change its stance. Points out senior Hurriyat leader Abdul Ghani Lone: "If New Delhi think selections will solve the Kashmir problem, it is mistaken. The people of Kashmir will never join any political process which will give legitimacy to India's stand on Kashmir."
The hardened view of the APHC does not find an echo among other political parties in the state. All of them are agreed that elections must be held although some, like the NC, would like certain assurances from the Centre before the electoral process is carried out. It is not clear as to what assurances New Delhi can give to Abdullah. But one thing is certain that the Centre is going ahead with the polls with or without the National Conference.
