But it soon became clear why the celebration of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s survival of the July 22 confidence motion in Parliament was so euphoric. After months of uncertainty, a string of electoral defeats, rising inflation and spiralling prices, the party finally had something to rejoice about. Also, it had a theme for the next elections—something that married the assurances it had long offered the aam aadmi to its own desire for a place in the sun. "This augurs well for the country’s development and for India’s efforts to take its rightful place in the comity of nations," a beaming Manmohan Singh told journalists as he emerged from the Lok Sabha after winning the trust vote.
First, the high: Third Front leaders Prakash Karat, Mayawati, A.B. Bardhan and Chandrababu Naidu before the trust vote
The next morning there was a graphic representation of that theme at the party HQ—giant balloons in the saffron, white and green of the party and the national flag, rigged up to look like an atom. Emblazoned across them was the slogan: ‘Sasti bijli, sabko bijli, parmanu bijli karar (Cheap electricity, electricity for all, nuclear deal)’. It was a message that sought to marry the domestic and the global, promising both power for the people, as well as a passport to a world in which India could join the ranks of the superpowers.
Overnight it seemed that party managers and workers—who had earlier seen the controversial Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement as an unlikely vote-winner—had decided that the deal could be sold as the dream of an India that would shine not only in its metros but also in its villages. An official who works closely with the prime minister told Outlook: "Frankly, many of us were sceptical about the political message of this deal. But I think we were simply wrong. This is something that has no religious or social connotations of the sort that could boomerang on the government. I think the PM is really quite a political person— he has his finger on the pulse of modern India."
Speaker Somnath Chatterjee arriving for the July 22 session
Indeed, the prime minister has clearly acquired a brand new image in the party, with young party activists calling him "King Cong" and stressing that, having gambled on jettisoning the Left and winning a decisive vote in Parliament, he has won his political spurs. Government sources also indicated that the vitriolic attack on Leader of Opposition L.K. Advani (including a suggestion that he change his astrologers) in the speech the PM was not allowed to deliver was written by Manmohan Singh himself, while the parts on the government’s achievements were written by his speech writers.
Similarly, the deployment of three young Muslim MPs who supported the deal—the MIM’s Asaduddin Owaisi, the PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti, and the NC’s Omar Abdullah—was part of a last-minute strategy to deflect attention from the noisy cash-for-vote allegations. Government sources say that when the Union cabinet and Sonia Gandhi held an emergency meeting in the PM’s room in Parliament to discuss what to do next, the first suggestion was that the Speaker should be asked to curtail the other speeches and conduct the voting after the PM’s speech. It was then decided that the Muslim MPs would be allowed to speak. Typically, government sources attribute the idea to Manmohan Singh, and Congress sources to Sonia Gandhi, but clearly both agreed to it. And it worked to negate the Opposition campaign that the Muslims of the country opposed the deal.
Of course, the Congress is aware that even as top government functionaries wing their way around the globe to lobby with the 45 nations that are members of the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group, and its party workers fan across the country to spread the message of the parmanu karar, it has first to do some serious damage control. Familiar as it is with the BJP’s talent for a Bofors-style campaign, the Congress also knows that, to distance itself decisively from taunts of a "tainted vote", it must swiftly investigate the BJP’s allegations that there was an attempt to bribe some of its MPs for cross-votes. A key minister told Outlook: "The PM wants the matter to be swiftly dealt with—otherwise he is well aware that the gains of our victory in Parliament could be undermined totally." Simultaneously, Samajwadi Party leader Mohan Singh has said that he will move a privilege notice against the BJP MPs for tarnishing the image of Parliament.
Enter, RJD Laloo Prasad Yadav arrives with his MPs on Jul 22
Indeed, Congress managers know that if this new "power" theme is to be translated into electoral success, the party must first prove that the sordid drama enacted in Parliament was a "conspiracy" to discredit the government. It may not be that difficult to prove—even though the repeated airing of the visuals is damaging—with Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan going on record, virtually admitting to "entrapment". He told The Hindu that Ashok Argal, unhappy that his name had started appearing in some newspapers in the list of MPs wavering on obeying the party whip, got in touch with a friend working with a reputed television channel and asked him whether the channel would be interested in covering the episode [of bribe giving]. "Hidden cameras were then fixed in the MP’s home," the chief minister said, claiming that "video footage of Mr Argal going to and leaving the house of Amar Singh (the Samajwadi Party general secretary) are there as well as records of telephonic contact between Mr Argal and Ahmed Patel (political secretary to Sonia Gandhi)." Of course, the channel in question, CNN-IBN, has since officially denied that it has any conclusive proof of Amar Singh or Ahmed Patel being involved in giving or offering a bribe.
There is, of course a sense that in the closing months of this government, it will not at the official level do much more than pursue the nuclear deal to its logical conclusion. "The UPA government now has the mandate of Parliament to go ahead with the nuclear deal," party general secretary Digvijay Singh said. "Simultaneously, the Congress will gear up for the polls. It will get into campaign mode to explain the reasons for the confidence vote and the importance of the nuclear agreement to the people."
And though the government is now liberated from the Left parties, it might be difficult to pursue any of the economic reforms that require legislative backing, relating to banking or labour, for instance. This is because, government officials point out, the pro-reforms BJP will be in an aggressive mood, determined to obstruct the government. Indeed, the fear is that the upcoming monsoon session, slated to start on August 11, will see the Opposition—the BJP, the Left, the UNPA and the BSP—uniting to prevent any government business.
Marked man: Congress leader Ahmed Patel outside Parliament after his name came up in the cash-for-vote sting operation
There are also some bills relating to the social sector that, pmo officials say, the government is keen to see through. The major ones are: the Rehabilitation Bill, the Right to Education Bill, the Central Universities Bill, and the Foreign Service Providers’ Bill. The Left opposes the last one, saying that letting foreign universities operate in India could endanger our sovereignty. "Right now, only second-rate foreign universities that don’t mind their autonomy being breached are opening campuses in India. But the PM is keen to open India to institutions like MIT. The Foreign Services Providers’ Bill would make that possible," says an official.
Indeed, government sources say that one area the PM is keen to move forward in is education—right from universal education to high-end education. So while the Central Universities Bill’s objective is to increase the geographical spread of universities, the aim of setting up 14 world-class universities as well Indian campuses of prestigious foreign universities is meant to augment quality education. This is being seen as the second big thrust in hig-her education since Independence—the first goes back to the days of Nehru.
The Samajwadis: Mulayam Singh and Amar Singh arrive for Manmohan’s dinner on the eve of the trust vote
Sources add that another area the PM is keen to focus on is "creating both employment opportunities as well as employability". So if the NREGA and the high growth rate have created employment opportunities across the spectrum, they say the operationalisation of a slew of measures to enhance skill development will achieve the second objective. Governance is bound to take a backseat now. The focus, willy-nilly, will be on accommodating some of the Congress’s old friends, such as the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, in the Union council of ministers, while dealing with the "demands" of its new friend, the Samajwadi Party. One minister says: "We are free of the Left, and we won’t have to deal with the whimsicalities of Deve Gowda, Ajit Singh or Chandrashekhar Rao, but the SP is likely to compensate for all that."
The last word was from a government official: "The Congress now has wind under its wings—it is up to it to leverage that, especially as it is very likely that the Left Parties-UNPA combination and the BJP will be battling it out for Opposition space." Does the Congress have the political skills to divide and rule?
