From the time nation-building began in earnest in the subcontinent, the avowed position of South Asian leaders have been to keep safe distance from India-Pakistan slugfests that frequently add tension in the region. Irrespective of the nature of confrontation, these nations have tried to duck away, out of range from all the sabre-rattling. This pattern was especially visible during the four wars India and Pakistan fought against each other since 1947.
On occasions though, some countries have broken that neutrality to take a pro-Pakistan position. In 1971, Sri Lanka had offered transit facilities to Pakistanis when war was declared against India. The offer was withdrawn only after India threatened to use force to stop the ongoing Pakistan-Lanka cooperation.
Pakistan has also taken liberal advantage of anti-India feelings in the neighbourhood to use territories of other countries to foment trouble in India—as it did in Bangladesh to aid Northeast insurgents, or Nepalese territory to arm terrorists during the Kandahar hijacking of IC 814 in 1999.
But all of a sudden, the table seems to be turning against Pakistan. Breaking away from tradition, some South Asian nations are now willing to make common cause with India to highlight blatant human rights abuse in Balochistan, clearly to put Pakistan in a spot.
“Despite the ongoing unrest in Kashmir, PM Modi and his advisors must have made an assessment that more than the Valley, it is Balochistan that is now under the international scanner,” says former Indian ambassador to Myanmar, Gautam Mukhopadhyay, who also served a stint in Afghanistan. “With this restive region of Pakistan playing a crucial role in China’s one-road-one-belt network, the US and other western countries have become interested in the Baloch cause,” he adds.
Bangladesh’s information minister, Hasnul Haque Inu, during a visit to Delhi last week, said Balochistan was facing the brunt of Pakistan’s military establishment, much like Bengalis of East Pakistan had faced in 1971. Inu, a veteran of Bangladesh’s freedom struggle and now a key member in the Sheikh Hasina government, said his government would soon make a policy declaration on Pakistan’s human rights abuses in Balochistan.
Within days, he was joined by former Afghanistan president Hamid Karzai, who too decided to use the Indian media to highlight the human rights situation in Balochistan and the plight of the Baloch people under Pakistan’s military might.
The remarks from Bangladesh and Afghanistan came soon after PM Narendra Modi’s Independence Day speech, when he referred to the struggle of the Baloch people against the Pakistani army.
“It is the ground situation in Balochistan and also what is happening both in Bangladesh and Afghanistan that may be the reason for the neighbours’ reaction,” points out Veena Sikri, India’s former high commissioner to Dhaka.
True, Bangladesh-Pakistan relations have been under growing strain since Sheikh Hasina’s government came to power some years back. They have worsened after several pro-Pakistani Jamaat-e-Islami leaders were tried and handed death penalties for alleged war crimes during the country’s 1971 liberation struggle.
On the other hand, India-Bangladesh relations have grown stronger since Hasina took charge. With many long-pending issues resolved, bilateral ties have been on the upswing, and the trend has continued after Modi came to power.
However, reports from Bangladesh suggest that Hasina is fast losing support among many sections of Bangladeshis. Allegations of rampant corruption and ruthless bashing of opponents has led to a fast shrinkage of space for dissenters and democratic activities in the country.
To add to Hasina’s discomfiture, the country’s main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party—perceived by India as pro-Pakistan—has now started reaching out to New Delhi. If the next general elections in Bangladesh, due to be held by January 19 next year, throws up a surprise and brings a non-Awami League coalition to power, India may have to rework its equations. It is, therefore, in Hasina’s interest to convince India’s leadership that she continues to be India’s best bet in Dhaka.
While these may be the reasons for Bangladesh’s reaction on Balochistan, how does one see the remarks coming out of Afghanistan?
Though Karzai is no longer in power, his views are shared by the Afghan government. Pakistan-sponsored terrorism has bled the country for long, and is a stumbling block for restoring normalcy. The Indian PM’s remarks on Balochistan, therefore, gave Karzai and the Afghan leadership the much-needed opportunity to put pressure on Pakistan—on a troubled region that has been largely ignored by the outside world.
Some observers feel that these fast-paced developments raise a serious question on whether the SAARC summit, scheduled for November in Islamabad, could now be held. The Pakistani media has been quoting senior government officials raising doubts whether, amidst growing Indo-Pakistan tensions, it was feasible to hold it at all. There are also indications that Modi could face hostile, black-flag demonstrations in Pakistan if he decides to attend the summit (read Hamid Mir’s column). But Modi, who has publicly committed himself to attend the SAARC summit, couldn’t necessarily be held responsible if the summit gets cancelled. If any head of government of the eight member-nations stays away, the meet would have to be called off.
Last month, Bangladesh decided not to send its minister to the interior ministers’ meeting in Islamabad. Given the strains in Pakistan-Bangladesh relations, Sheikh Hasina could decide not to attend the SAARC summit too, thus calling for its cancellation. If that happens, it will be a setback for Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif and his government, which is under severe pressure. It will be a missed opportunity for the region as a whole, particularly Modi, as he would then have to wait for another opening to normalise ties with Pakistan and clear up the poisonous fumes clouding bilateral relations.
