Are Australia Favorites To Win the World Test Championship Again? How the India Tour Will Decide Their Fate

Australia’s opening-Test victory in Durban carried more weight than the points alone. They posted 421 on a pitch that helped bowlers, then their quicks had South Africa 102 for 4 when play ended on day four. South Africa hold the title and a win on their own turf sends a clear signal. Results in South Africa are hard to get and Australia last played a Test there in 2018.

The result also reinforces Australia’s position at the top. Before the series began, Australia led the WTC 2025-27 standings with South Africa second. A 1-0 lead with two Tests to play gives them breathing space in a race where percentage points matter more than raw wins, ICC standings showed.

This commanding victory in hostile territory makes Australia look firmly like the team to beat in the current cycle. Winning away against the defending champions on a tough pitch showcases the kind of ruthless consistency that defines true frontrunners.

Why Are Australia Favourites?

The core is familiar. Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon form a bowling group that rarely has an off-day. Steve Smith, Travis Head and Marnus Labuschagne still anchor the batting. Newer names like Matt Renshaw and Nic Maddinson are adding depth. Australia also tend to win the matches they should, which is how WTC tables are built.

What Could Go Wrong?

The schedule is brutal. Australia are slated to play 10 Tests in a 14-week window between December and March and the ageing core will feel it. Injuries or fatigue in that stretch could undo good work quickly.

Why Does India Matter?

The five-Test tour of India is the swing series of the cycle. It begins January 21 at Nagpur, where Australia lost by an innings and 132 runs on their last tour. The tour is scheduled to run until March 3, Australia’s longest in nearly five decades. Even more telling, Australia have decided to skip a warm-up match and rely on a specialised training camp instead.

India, meanwhile, are not the fortress they once were. For years they were nearly unbeatable at home, but they were swept 0-3 by New Zealand in 2024 and then lost to South Africa in 2025. That included a 408-run defeat in Guwahati, one of the heaviest in their Test history. Visiting teams have learned that India’s spin-heavy approach can be exposed and the batting no longer carries the aura it once did.

That creates a real opening. Australia haven’t won a Test series in India since 2004-05 and Cummins, Smith, Starc, Hazlewood and Lyon have never won one there. It is the last frontier for this generation.

What Happens Next?

If Australia come out of India with even a drawn series, the WTC final is very likely theirs. A series win would make them overwhelming favourites. A heavy loss would drag them into a three-way scramble with South Africa and India.

So Are They Favourites?

Yes, narrowly. Australia lead the table, they have momentum and India are more beatable at home than at any point in a decade. But this is a team in the final stretch of its golden era, carrying a punishing schedule into the toughest conditions in Test cricket. Durban showed what Australia can do. India will show whether they can finish the job.