Asia Cup 2025, Super Four Qualification: Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka Still In Race - Who Will Advance?

It's a three-way battle for the two available Super Four spots in the Asia Cup 2025. Arch-rivals India and Pakistan have confirmed their berths as the two top teams in Group A, but Group B final standings will only be confirmed after the Sri Lanka vs Afghanistan match in Abu Dhabi on Thursday (September 18).

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Despite Hong Kong's early elimination from the Super Four race, Group B is in a tangled web with three teams -- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka -- still in the hunt for a top-two finish.

As things stand, six-time champions Sri Lanka lead the race with four points and a healthy net run rate (NRR). They had defeated Bangladesh and Hong Kong by six and four wickets, respectively. But a heavy defeat tonight against Afghanistan would compromise their standing.

Bangladesh have completed their group assignments with two wins and one defeat, and now wait for the Sri Lanka vs Afghanistan result, a favourable one is what they need.

For Afghanistan, who enter the match as the third-placed team in the group, it's a must-win fixture. Considering their far superior NRR, even a victory by the smallest margin would suffice. However, a defeat, and it's the end of the road.

Asia Cup 2025, Group B Super Four Qualification Scenarios Explained

- If Sri Lanka win, they'll finish with six points and top the group. Bangladesh, despite their inferior NRR, will qualify as the second team because Afghanistan would remain on two points.

In this scenario, the standings are straightforward: Sri Lanka first, Bangladesh second, Afghanistan third, and Hong Kong fourth.

- If Afghanistan win, however, all three teams -- Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan -- will be locked on four points each. And it would require the dreaded net run rate to break the three-way tie.

Asia Cup 2025, Group B Super Four Net Run Rate

Afghanistan's current NRR (+2.150) gives them an advantage, and a win tonight would only strengthen that position.

Meaning, Sri Lanka's fate would then hinge on the margin of defeat. A narrow loss could still keep their NRR above Bangladesh, whose tally has now been frozen at -0.270.

Sri Lanka enter the match with an NNR of +1.546. But a heavy defeat could push them below Bangladesh, knocking them out despite having started the day as group leaders.

For Bangladesh, as previously indicated, the path to qualification is a Sri Lanka win or a no result. Margin of win doesn't matter. They only need to avoid the NNR play, as they currently trail both rivals.

Here's how Bangladesh can qualify, depending on the result of the SL vs AFG match, explained using a hypothetical score/target:

- If Sri Lanka bat first and score 150, Afghanistan would need to chase the target (151 runs) under 11.4 overs to eliminate the Asia Cup ODI holders.

Result: Afghanistan and Bangladesh qualify.

- If Afghanistan post 150, Sri Lanka must be restricted to 84 or fewer runs.

Result: Afghanistan and Bangladesh qualify.

Asia Cup 2025: Super Four Format And Schedule

The Super Four stage of the Asia Cup 2025, meant for the top two teams from each group, is the second round of the tournament. These four teams are placed into a single group, and each team play three matches, one against each of the others.

There are no semi-finals in this format. Instead, the two teams with the most points qualify directly for the final. If teams are tied on points, their net run rate will be used to decide the final standings.

The Super Four matches, six in total, will be played between September 20 and 26 at two venues -- the Dubai International Cricket Stadium in Dubai and the Sheikh Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi.

Yes, India and Pakistan are scheduled to clash in the Super Four stage on September 21 in Dubai.

The bitter rivals, who were engaged in the "no handshake" controversy, could also potentially face off in the final, on September 28, also in Dubai.