Reading Bihar’s Election Verdict: Why Do Optics Matter in Kerala And Not in Tamil Nadu?

Bihar is separated from Tamil Nadu and Kerala not just by geography, but by the distinct social and political trajectories these states have taken. Yet, as Bihar’s verdict is parsed and its implications debated in poll-bound Tamil Nadu and Kerala, political commentators and activists are assessing whether it will have any ripple effects in the South. In both states—where anti-BJP fronts dominate—the reading of the Bihar outcome also exposes the underlying fault lines within the INDIA alliance.

Congress wears its resilience in public, despite setbacks

The Bihar results landed just as Kerala was gearing up for local body elections. In the state’s recent political history, these grassroots polls have often mirrored public sentiment and served as early indicators of the assembly elections that follow. With both Kerala and Tamil Nadu set to vote in April–May 2026, the Bihar verdict has inevitably entered political conversations in the South.

While Congress leaders in Kerala publicly minimise the impact, party workers and observers appear less convinced. "The Bihar verdict may not have a direct bearing on the local body polls or assembly elections, but it has dampened enthusiasm among workers at the grassroots," says a district-level Congress leader from central Kerala.

Congress leaders are eager to present a confident front. "The Bihar result makes us sad, not frustrated," says M. Liju, KPCC general secretary. "It highlights the importance of vigilance against the Election Commission, the state government, and CPI(M), and the need to build strong political resistance. Instead of discouraging us, the Bihar episode has increased our political enthusiasm and awareness of the larger challenge ahead," he adds.

Strategic space shrinks: Congress has few viable options in Tamil Nadu

In Tamil Nadu, the Congress finds itself in a far more constrained position. Unlike in Kerala, it is not the dominant partner in the alliance and is compelled to play second fiddle to the DMK. The Bihar verdict has only sharpened this imbalance. There were reports that the Congress was exploring an understanding with actor Vijay’s newly launched TVK, ostensibly to gain leverage within the ruling coalition. But soon after the Bihar results, TNPCC president K. Selvaperunthagai publicly denied any such negotiations, insisting that the Congress remains firmly aligned with the DMK.

Chief Minister M.K. Stalin’s response, however, was more guarded. "Election outcomes reflect welfare delivery, social and ideological coalitions, clear political messaging, and management until the last vote is polled," he said—remarks that some observers noted as signalling to Congress.

In the 2021 assembly elections, the Congress contested 25 seats as part of the DMK-led alliance and won 18. This was an improvement on 2016, when it contested 41 seats but secured only eight. Ahead of 2026, there was speculation that the party might push for a larger share of seats. But after Bihar, many within the alliance believe the Congress’s bargaining power has weakened further.

“One can’t assume that there will be a Bihar impact on Tamil Nadu politics. Here, there is actually no NDA or INDIA alliance; only the alliance partners of the DMK and AIADMK. These two parties dominate their respective fronts. No party on either front is capable of challenging the DMK and AIADMK. The Congress's chances of getting more seats in the assembly are highly unlikely, and they may have to contend with fewer seats than in the past,” notes senior journalist Tharasu Shyam. “Within the DMK front, there is no appetite to entertain any demand for more seats from any of its partners." Other analysts who spoke to Outlook agree that the Bihar setback has significantly weakened the Congress’s bargaining position ahead of the 2026 polls.

Allegations of  CPIM ‘s subterranean political messaging

In Kerala, the Left has used the Bihar outcome to score political points against the Congress, despite both being part of the Mahagathbandhan in that state. Social media handles of Left leaders and sympathisers were quick to mock the Congress and Rahul Gandhi after the results.

“That was a political reaction to the Congress’s inability to stand up to the BJP,” says CPI(M) MP and state committee member Dr Sivadasan. “The Bihar election once again proved that the Congress is neither ideologically nor organisationally equipped to halt the BJP juggernaut. This has been demonstrated many times. And in Kerala, where the BJP is desperately trying to gain a foothold, it is the Left that leads the political fight. So the criticism that surfaced on social media after the Bihar verdict is quite normal—and political.” In Bihar, the Congress contested 61 seats and won just six, while the Left parties—the CPI(ML), CPI and CPI(M)—together fought 33 seats and secured two.

But the Left’s online campaign mocking the Congress, critics say, reveals the subterranean political messaging the CPI(M) in Kerala is pushing. According to them, the party appears more invested in weakening the Congress than confronting the BJP’s growing presence.

“This is not just about social media potshots,” remarks M. Liju. “Despite the Left contesting more than 30 seats in Bihar, the only chief minister the Left has in the entire country, Pinarayi Vijayan, chose not to campaign there. In contrast, DMK leader and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin did make the effort. That difference speaks volumes, he adds.

A BJP leader, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Outlook that the NDA’s ability to capitalise on the Bihar victory has been limited by the turmoil within the AIADMK. “The organisational crisis in the AIADMK has hamstrung us. Even the Bihar win couldn’t be leveraged to its full potential,” the leader said.

But some political scientists believe the Bihar results could still leave an indirect imprint on the poll-bound southern states.

G. Gopakumar, political scientist and former vice-chancellor of the Central University of Kerala, tells Outlook that the impact may be most visible among upper-middle-class, non-committed voters. “After the thumping victory in Bihar, the BJP can now project itself—through its blitzkrieg campaign—as the party of aspirational Indians. This narrative may resonate with sections of the upper middle class, particularly in Kerala,” he says.

He adds that Kerala’s political contest cannot be viewed as bipolar anymore. The NDA secured nearly 20 per cent of the vote in the 2024 Lok Sabha election—an unmistakable signal, he argues. “If the two main blocs together cannot command at least 85 per cent of the vote, the polity is no longer bipolar,” Gopakumar says. His assessment is likely to unsettle the Congress in Kerala. “If the BJP manages to win four or five seats—or even maintains a 15–20 per cent vote share—that could pave the way for the Left’s return to power.”

In Kerala, where politics has traditionally been dominated by the CPI(M)-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF, the key question now is who stands to gain from an improved BJP performance. Past elections offer no consistent pattern. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the NDA secured 20 per cent of the vote, yet the UDF swept 18 of the 20 seats. But in the 2021 assembly election, when the NDA polled only 12 per cent, the LDF returned to power.

Meanwhile, in Tamil Nadu, the BJP’s performance has largely ridden on alliances with Dravidian parties. Analysts say that once the optics are stripped away, the Bihar results are unlikely to have much impact—if any—on the state’s political dynamics, emphasising the region’s unique political landscape.