Confusion In BJP Over Bihar CM Face Raises Questions On Samrat Choudhary’s Chances

Bihar’s politics is passing through a phase of uncertainty where everything seems stuck on possibilities rather than decisions. Over the past month, so many speculations have been made about the next chief minister that it has become difficult to clearly say who will eventually take the position.

Nitish Kumar’s resignation from his MLC post has increased political pressure on the BJP to announce its chief ministerial face. The names that were earlier being discussed as possible contenders are now caught in a fresh round of debate shaped largely by caste equations.

There have been several changes of power in Bihar’s politics over the years, but a change in leadership after nearly two decades would be happening for the first time. In simple terms, this could also mark the end of the BJP’s long political wait to lead the state government. If that happens, it would be the first time in nearly five decades since the BJP’s formation that the party would have its own chief minister in Bihar, the second most politically significant state in the Hindi belt. As this picture begins to take shape, attention has now shifted to identifying which face from the BJP will actually lead the state.

Among the names being discussed as possible contenders are Samrat Choudhary, Vijay Kumar Sinha, Nityanand Rai, Mangal Pandey, Dilip Jaiswal and Giriraj Singh. At the same time, there is growing discussion around caste representation, whether the chief minister could come from the Extremely Backward Classes (EBC), the state’s largest social group, or whether the BJP might opt for a Dalit face to create a new political shift.

If one looks at Bihar’s political history, the early decades were largely dominated by upper-caste chief ministers. From 1950 to 1990—nearly 40 years—the state remained mostly under the leadership of Bhumihars, Rajputs, Brahmins and Kayasths. Although socialist politics during this period did open some space for leaders from backward communities, their tenure was brief. The most prominent among them was Karpoori Thakur, widely regarded as the tallest leader of the Extremely Backward Classes in Bihar. Even he could not remain chief minister for long. He served twice, first for about six months in 1970, and then from 1977 to 1979 for roughly one year and four months, making a total of about 22 months. Similarly, Dalit leaders such as Bhola Paswan Shastri, Ram Sundar Das and Jitan Ram Manjhi did become chief minister, but their combined tenure was only around two to three years.

In contrast, after 1990, the politics of Other Backward Classes (OBCs) became dominant in Bihar. Under leaders like Lalu Prasad Yadav, Rabri Devi and Nitish Kumar, this influence continued for more than three decades. Yet even within OBC politics, power largely remained concentrated among a few communities such as Yadavs and Kurmis.

According to Bihar’s caste survey, the Extremely Backward Classes make up more than 36 per cent of the population, the largest share in the state. OBCs account for around 27 per cent, while Scheduled Castes make up about 19 per cent. Despite this, political representation has not reflected this social composition. Since 1990, OBC politics has dominated, but the EBC community, despite being the largest, has not produced a chief minister after Karpoori Thakur. Nitish Kumar did organize EBC politics and introduced several welfare measures for them, but in terms of leadership positions, the community continues to remain underrepresented. No EBC leader has become chief minister so far, nor have they consistently received strong representation as deputy chief minister or in major ministries.

Nitish Kumar’s long hold on power has also depended on the “Lav-Kush” social combination—Kurmi, Kushwaha and Dhanuk communities—which together make up roughly 10 per cent of the population. Among them, Kushwahas (Koeris) form the largest share. Samrat Choudhary belongs to this community and, until recently, was considered the BJP’s strongest chief ministerial face.

As deputy chief minister and a leader active both in the government and the organization, Samrat Choudhary was widely seen as the leading contender. Nityanand Rai, the Union Minister of State for Home Affairs, was considered another strong possibility. But now there is talk that none of the earlier names may finally be chosen, and that the BJP could instead pick someone from the EBC or Dalit communities.

Reports suggest that Nitish Kumar is expected to take the oath as a Rajya Sabha member on April 10. Before that, however, the JD(U) wants the BJP to announce its chief ministerial candidate. It is also being said that in return, JD(U) is seeking acceptance of four conditions from the BJP, including the deputy chief minister’s post, the Home Department, and the Speaker’s position remaining within its quota.

JD(U) leaders have repeatedly said that whoever becomes chief minister after Nitish Kumar will be someone he approves of. According to political discussions, Nitish’s preference is believed to be Samrat Choudhary. However, the BJP, which until recently seemed ready to back him, is now appearing uncertain. One reason being discussed is that the RSS does not favour him, reportedly viewing him as an outsider.

Senior journalist Arvind Sharma believes that more than the RSS’s preference, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s choice will matter. He says, “It is true that the RSS does not like Samrat Choudhary. It is also true that the more the RSS resists someone, the more Modi may support him. But the concern before Modi is that Samrat Choudhary is a strong leader with his own network. Once you give such a leader space, he tends to stand independently, and that is not the kind of leader Modi prefers.”

In recent years, Samrat Choudhary has been steadily promoted within the BJP. When Nitish Kumar was running the government with the RJD, Choudhary was made Leader of the Opposition. Later, when Nitish returned to the BJP alliance, Choudhary became deputy chief minister. In the present government, he holds both the deputy chief minister’s position and the Home portfolio, effectively placing him second only to Nitish Kumar.

Before the Bihar elections, Union Home Minister Amit Shah even appealed for votes in his support at a rally and indicated that the party intended to give him a major responsibility. That raises the question: what changed so suddenly that the party is now exploring other options?

Arvind Sharma shares several explanations in this regard. He says the way the BJP promoted Samrat Choudhary earlier made it seem almost certain that he would be the next chief minister, and Choudhary himself appeared to believe that power was within reach. Around that time, he had begun advocating the “Yogi model” of governance in Bihar. But after becoming deputy chief minister and Home Minister, he softened his stand on the bulldozer model, possibly because Nitish Kumar does not support it. While this may have helped him stay aligned with Nitish, it did not help him gain the confidence of the RSS. According to Sharma, the RSS has reportedly conveyed that whoever becomes chief minister should not be an outsider. At the same time, although Modi and Shah do not always follow the RSS line strictly, they do take it into account in some situations.

Another factor, Sharma suggests, is that Samrat Choudhary has grown closer to Nitish Kumar. Modi and Shah would not want a situation similar to that of Sushil Kumar Modi, where their chief minister ends up politically dependent on Nitish Kumar.

In recent years, there have also been subtle but visible differences between the working style of the RSS and the political strategy of the Modi–Shah leadership, especially regarding election strategy and ticket distribution. While the RSS traditionally emphasizes organizational strength, social balance and cadre-based politics, Modi and Shah tend to prioritize centralized decision-making and “winnability.” This has been evident in states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Rajasthan and even Delhi, where relatively less-discussed faces were chosen as chief ministers over locally prominent contenders.

In this context, the BJP may be looking beyond traditional OBC faces and considering a new social base, most likely from the Extremely Backward Classes.

Political analyst and professor Dr. Rakesh Ranjan also believes that Samrat Choudhary remains the strongest contender from the BJP for now. However, if the party moves beyond him, then an EBC face may prove more politically useful than a Dalit face in the long term. He points out that the Dalit community itself is internally divided. A large section of the Paswan community supports Chirag Paswan, while another segment, particularly among the Ram community, still leans toward the Congress. Other groups such as Bhuiyan and Manjhi also show influence from Chirag Paswan, while some Mahadalit groups remain aligned with Nitish Kumar’s party. In contrast, although the EBC category includes more than a hundred sub-castes, it does not have the same level of leadership fragmentation. A large section of this group has supported Nitish Kumar because of his social engineering efforts, and with Nitish’s political influence gradually declining, the BJP would likely want to bring this community closer to itself.

It is therefore quite possible that the BJP may choose a chief minister from the EBC community as part of a broader strategy to directly challenge Nitish Kumar’s most important social base. Nitish’s politics has long revolved around mobilizing the EBC community by giving it recognition and representation. If the BJP selects a chief minister from this group, it would not just be symbolic, but it would signal a carefully planned attempt to reshape social alignments and send a message that EBC leadership is now possible within the BJP as well.

After the Lav-Kush combination, the EBC community is considered Nitish Kumar’s strongest support base. His son Nishant Kumar is now being introduced partly to preserve this social equation. However, political observers believe that while JD(U) may be able to retain the Lav-Kush vote bank through Nishant, keeping the EBC base intact will be far more challenging.

Senior journalist Manikant Thakur says the level of internal confusion within the BJP over the chief ministerial face is so high that the party may not be in a position to spring a surprise candidate this time, as it has done in other states. The fear, he suggests, is that such a move could trigger strong resistance from within the party itself, especially given Bihar’s unique caste equations and political dynamics.

For now, Bihar’s political landscape appears to be standing at several turning points at once. There is speculation about Nitish Kumar possibly moving to Delhi, uncertainty over who will become the next chief minister, and fresh questions about the future leadership of JD(U).