Outlook Explains | Why Yemen's Fragile Peace Is Unravelling Again?

The latest escalation in Yemen is about far more than an airport as its internationally recognised government has declared the Cabinet in permanent session after accusing the Houthis of violating Yemen's sovereignty, while President Rashad Al-Alimi and senior military leaders have vowed to confront what they describe as growing threats to the country's airspace and territorial integrity.

The developments follow renewed tensions over Sana'a International Airport, where the Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of carrying out airstrikes after damage was reported at the facility, an allegation denied by Riyadh.

Coming days after the Presidential Leadership Council pledged to take "all necessary measures" to protect Yemen's sovereignty, the government's latest response shows growing concern that the conflict is entering another period of heightened confrontation rather than moving closer to a negotiated settlement.

The renewed tensions have also drawn international attention. During a recent UN Security Council meeting on Yemen, member states condemned unauthorised Iranian flights into Sana'a and Hudaydah while UN officials urged all parties to exercise restraint and return to dialogue, warning that further escalation could jeopardise an already fragile political process.

More than a decade after civil war engulfed Yemen, the conflict has evolved from a conventional battlefield into a complex struggle involving political legitimacy, regional rivalries, economic collapse and competing claims over state authority.

Although large-scale fighting has eased since the truce of 2022, the UN says the peace process remains stalled, with sporadic clashes, maritime attacks and deepening humanitarian challenges continuing to threaten stability.

Against that backdrop, the latest dispute over Sana'a Airport has become the newest flashpoint in a conflict where military developments, diplomatic negotiations and humanitarian conditions remain closely intertwined.

Why Has The Conflict Escalated Again?

After the Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of carrying out airstrikes on the airport, Yemen's internationally recognised government shifted attention to what it describes as repeated violations of the country's sovereignty through unauthorised operations at Sana'a Airport and other Houthi-controlled infrastructure.

In response, the Cabinet announced it would remain in permanent session to coordinate political, military and diplomatic measures, saying the government would continue working to restore state institutions and safeguard Yemen's sovereignty.

President Rashad Al-Alimi, who also serves as Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, described the current phase as one requiring national unity and institutional resilience, while Defence Minister Mohsen Mohammed Al-Daeri said the armed forces were prepared to confront violations of Yemen's airspace and defend the country's territorial integrity.

The government's position builds on a statement issued by the Presidential Leadership Council on Saturday, in which it pledged to take all necessary measures to prevent violations of Yemeni sovereignty and reaffirmed support for state institutions.

The issue has also taken on an international dimension. Addressing the Security Council, UN Assistant Secretary-General Khaled Khiari called on all parties to de-escalate and avoid actions that could undermine regional stability, while Council members condemned unauthorised Iranian flights into Sana'a and Hudaydah, arguing that they violated Security Council resolutions and complicated efforts to advance the peace process.

For Yemen's government, the airport dispute is therefore not simply about control of airspace. It has become part of a broader contest over legitimacy, sovereignty and who exercises authority over the country's internationally recognised institutions.

How Did Yemen Get Here?

The latest escalation is unfolding against the backdrop of a conflict that has transformed significantly since civil war erupted in 2014 after the Houthis seized Sana'a and forced the internationally recognised government from the capital.

Years of fighting involving the Houthis, the Yemeni government, a Saudi-led coalition and, more recently, military operations by the United States and Israel have fragmented the country politically, militarily and economically. Although the UN-brokered truce in 2022 helped reduce large-scale hostilities, it did not produce a comprehensive political settlement, leaving Yemen divided between rival centres of authority.

According to the UN Panel of Experts on Yemen, direct military confrontations between the Houthis and government forces declined during the latest reporting period, but the peace process failed to make a meaningful breakthrough despite mediation efforts led by the United Nations, Oman and Saudi Arabia.

The panel also points to a widening governance crisis. While the internationally recognised government continues to struggle with a deepening economic downturn, the Houthis have further consolidated control over institutions in areas under their authority. The report says the group has continued to tighten restrictions on civil society organisations, detain United Nations personnel, humanitarian workers and members of non-governmental organisations, and use detentions as leverage in the broader political process.

How Strong Are The Houthis Today?

The UN assessment suggests that the Houthis remain the dominant military and political force in much of northern Yemen despite months of sustained military pressure.

According to the experts, the group has continued to recruit and train fighters under its "Aqsa Flood" mobilisation campaign, expanding military preparedness through regular training programmes involving tribal communities, students and public-sector employees. The report also describes an extensive propaganda and recruitment network, alongside tighter surveillance and security measures aimed at suppressing dissent in Houthi-controlled areas.

Militarily, the panel says the Houthis have continued to develop their missile and drone capabilities, including systems capable of striking targets between 800 km and 2,000 km away. It notes that the group has improved the accuracy of its weapons while publicly showcasing advances in missile and drone technology as part of its military strategy.

Those capabilities have enabled the Houthis to sustain attacks beyond Yemen's borders. The panel documents continued missile and drone strikes targeting Israel, alongside attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden that have disrupted international shipping.

Although military operations conducted by the US, the UK and Israel damaged weapons depots, command centres and military infrastructure, the panel concludes that the strikes had only a limited long-term impact on the Houthis' overall capabilities. It notes that while production facilities and personnel suffered losses, the group's technical knowledge, manufacturing capacity and access to financial resources remain largely intact.

The report therefore concludes that the Houthis continue to pose a significant military challenge despite repeated external strikes, reinforcing why the conflict remains difficult to resolve through military means alone.

Why Has Peace Stalled?

Despite a sharp decline in large-scale fighting since the UN-brokered truce of 2022, Yemen's political process has struggled to translate reduced violence into a lasting settlement.

According to the UN experts, repeated mediation efforts led by the United Nations, Oman and Saudi Arabia have yet to produce a breakthrough between the Houthis and the internationally recognised government. The report says mistrust continues to define relations between the two sides, with negotiations over conflict-related detainees making little progress since the prisoner exchanges of 2020 and 2023.

A meeting in Oman in July 2024 ended without an agreement, although the Houthis later renewed calls for a comprehensive prisoner swap.

There have been isolated signs of progress. In May 2025, the two sides agreed to reopen the main highway linking Sana'a and Aden through Dali' Governorate after nearly seven years, followed by another agreement to reopen the Aqabat Thirah road connecting Bayda' and Abyan.

The panel describes the agreements as an example of the constructive role played by local mediation and civil society, even though implementation has remained uneven.

At the same time, Yemen's economic crisis has deepened. The UN panel says crude oil exports, which once accounted for at least 70% of state revenue, remain severely disrupted, limiting the government's ability to restore public services and infrastructure.

The report also notes that the Yemeni rial has continued to depreciate in government-controlled areas, inflation has made essential goods increasingly unaffordable, salaries remain unpaid or delayed, and prolonged electricity outages have fuelled public frustration and protests.

Taken together, the report suggests that Yemen's biggest obstacle is no longer simply the absence of a ceasefire, but the lack of trust and functioning institutions needed to sustain a political settlement.

The Human Cost

The political and military stalemate continues to have profound consequences for civilians.

According to the UN Yemen Country Results Report 2025, millions of Yemenis remain dependent on humanitarian assistance as conflict, economic decline and climate-related challenges continue to strain access to food, healthcare, education and other essential services.

The report highlights continued UN efforts to support livelihoods, strengthen health services, expand education, improve water and sanitation infrastructure, and protect vulnerable communities despite persistent operational challenges.

The humanitarian situation is compounded by the country's economic crisis. The UN Panel of Experts notes that gross domestic product per capita has more than halved since the conflict began in 2015, while worsening inflation, prolonged electricity shortages and disruptions to government salaries have left millions struggling to meet basic needs.

For the United Nations, preserving humanitarian access remains closely linked to sustaining political dialogue. Without progress on both fronts, the country's economic and social conditions are likely to deteriorate further.

What Happens Next?

The latest escalation around Sana'a Airport illustrates how fragile Yemen's relative calm remains.

The internationally recognised government has framed the dispute as a challenge to Yemen's sovereignty and says it will continue coordinating political, diplomatic and military measures through the Cabinet's permanent session. The Houthis, meanwhile, maintain their own narrative surrounding the airport and continue to exercise control over large parts of northern Yemen.

At the UN, officials have continued to urge restraint. Addressing the Security Council, Assistant Secretary-General Khaled Khiari called on all parties to avoid further escalation and return to dialogue, warning that recent developments risk undermining an already fragile peace process. Council members also voiced concern over unauthorised Iranian flights into Sana'a and Hudaydah, arguing that respect for Security Council resolutions remains essential to regional stability.

For now, Yemen remains caught between two competing realities. Large-scale battlefield confrontations have become less frequent than in previous years, yet the underlying drivers of the conflict, political divisions, competing centres of authority, economic collapse and regional rivalries, remain unresolved. The Cabinet's decision to enter permanent session is therefore not simply a response to the latest dispute over Sana'a Airport; it is a reminder that, despite years of diplomacy, Yemen's fragile peace remains vulnerable to renewed escalation.