Why Is China’s Ballistic Missile Test Raising Concerns Across Asia And The Pacific?

China’s navy has test-launched a long-range ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine into the Pacific Ocean, drawing protests from the United States and countries across Asia and the Pacific over the lack of advance notice and concerns about Beijing’s expanding nuclear and military capabilities.

The launch, carried out on Monday, was described by China as part of routine annual training and was not directed at any country or target. However, military experts said the test showed Beijing’s growing ability as part of its nuclear deterrence strategy, while the limited information released by China has increased uncertainty over its military intentions and added to tensions surrounding growing militarisation in Asia.

What missile did China launch, and what do we know about the test?

China announced the missile launch publicly only after it had taken place, saying the weapon was fired into the Pacific Ocean and that the exercise complied with international law and practice. The official Xinhua News Agency said the test was not aimed at any country or target but did not identify the missile involved.

The missile carried a dummy warhead rather than a nuclear one. The launch into international waters was rare, although the United States has also carried out similar missile tests.

It was the second time in recent years that China had fired a ballistic missile into international waters. While Beijing provided advance notice to some countries in the region, some governments said the warning was not sufficient.

Xinhua later released a photograph of the missile without providing further details. Experts said the image was not clear enough to confirm the missile type, but they assessed that it could be either the JL-2 or JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile.

The state-owned Global Times said the missile was “most likely” a JL-3, which has a range exceeding 10,000 kilometres (6,200 miles). The JL-2 has a shorter range.

The launch also raised concerns because of where the missile travelled. The New Zealand government said the missile was launched into treaty waters covered by the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, established under the 1986 Treaty of Rarotonga.

The zone prohibits nuclear weapons throughout the region. China ratified the treaty protocols in 1987, pledging not to test nuclear weapons within the zone or threaten to use nuclear weapons against signatories with territories in the region.

Why did countries in the region protest the launch?

The United States, Australia, Japan, New Zealand and other countries in the region raised concerns over the test, with criticism focused on the limited advance warning and the broader impact of China’s military expansion.

The Associated Press reported that experts said the lack of clear information around China’s military modernisation had contributed to uncertainty about Beijing’s intentions.

Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said China’s military development had taken place without greater openness.

“China’s military modernization and buildup have occurred without concurrent increases in openness and transparency, resulting in uncertainty about China’s intentions.”

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said China did not provide enough notice to the Australian government.

“There is no doubt that this is a provocative act by China which does destabilize the region,” he told reporters Tuesday while in Honiara, in the Solomon Islands.

“This was a test of a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile fired from a nuclear-powered submarine. That is of real concern because what we need is less nuclear weapons, certainly not more. And the fact that this test took place yesterday with very little notice is of real concern,” Albanese added.

New Zealand had expressed similar concerns on Monday, with Foreign Minister Winston Peters calling the launch “unwelcome and concerning.”

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale, speaking to reporters in Honiara on Tuesday, said China’s relationship with his country should not mean accepting actions that create security concerns in the Pacific.

“China is a good friend of Solomon Islands, but this is not something a friend does. This is not … good in our region.”

“We don’t want to see any more countries — China, America, anybody — we don’t want anybody testing their ICBMs in the Pacific Islands region. Be our friend, but don’t threaten us,” Wale added.

China has urged countries to “avoid overinterpretation” of the test, saying the launch was a routine military exercise and complied with international practice. However, experts said regional concerns reflected wider uncertainty about China’s military development.

How does the missile test fit into China’s military expansion?

The test comes as Chinese leader Xi Jinping continues to make modernisation of the People’s Liberation Army a priority.

China already has the world’s largest standing army and the world’s largest navy. While its nuclear arsenal remains smaller than those of the United States and Russia, Beijing has been expanding its stock of nuclear warheads and developing new longer-range missiles and advanced drones.

China’s defence budget is projected to reach $270 billion in 2026 and has grown by roughly 7% annually over the past four years. Official figures put defence spending below 2% of gross domestic product, but independent analysis suggests the actual figure could be much higher. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated China’s defence spending for 2024 at $313.7 billion.

Much of the security concern surrounding China’s military activities is focused on Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own and for which it has not ruled out the use of force to bring it under its control. China regularly sends warplanes and navy ships into waters around Taiwan, describing those activities as military exercises.

The Associated Press reported that countries in the region have increased defence spending in response to China’s expanding military activity. Japan is moving away from its long-held cap of limiting defence spending to around 1% of GDP and plans to raise it to 2%. The Philippines has also agreed to allow the United States to expand its military presence by adding access to four more bases.

Emma Chanlett-Avery, director of Political-Security Affairs at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said the missile launch could further strain already difficult relations between Beijing and Tokyo.

“The Chinese launch exacerbates already deeply strained relations between Beijing and Tokyo. Since (Prime Minister Sanae) Takaichi’s comments last year suggesting that Japan would engage in a conflict over Taiwan, China has tightened export controls on Japan and accused it of embracing a ‘new time of militarism,’” she said.

(With inputs from Associated Press)