US Midterms: Rising Prices And Economic Anxiety Put Trump’s Republicans Under Pressure

With Americans heading to the polls on Tuesday, economic anxiety is emerging as a major challenge for President Donald Trump’s Republican Party, despite signs of resilience in the US economy. High prices, rising fuel costs and concerns over affordability have left many voters dissatisfied, with some blaming Trump’s tariffs and the ongoing war with Iran for keeping inflation elevated. The economic mood presents a difficult backdrop for Republicans as they seek to retain control of Congress in elections that will shape the final two years of Trump’s presidency.

The disconnect between economic indicators and public sentiment has become increasingly pronounced. The US economy expanded at an annualised rate of 3.4 per cent in the previous quarter, while unemployment stood at 4.2 per cent in September. However, consumer sentiment remains close to a record low, reflecting persistent concerns about household expenses and purchasing power. Inflation has slowed from its peak in 2022 but remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent target.

Inflation And Cost Of Living Dominate Voter Concerns

The cost of living has remained a central issue in the run-up to the midterms, with voters particularly concerned about everyday expenses such as fuel, food, utilities and housing. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in August found that 47 per cent of registered voters considered the cost of living the single most important factor in deciding their midterm vote. The same survey found that 71 per cent of US adults disapproved of Trump’s handling of the issue, compared with 22 per cent who approved.

The impact of rising prices has been compounded by higher energy costs following the US and Israeli military strikes on Iran in February, which escalated into a prolonged conflict. According to Reuters, consumer prices and average hourly earnings have each increased by about 5.5 per cent since Trump took office in January 2025. This has left workers with little improvement in purchasing power despite nominal wage growth. Higher borrowing costs and mortgage rates exceeding 7 per cent have further complicated household finances, putting home ownership beyond the reach of many prospective buyers.

A separate Pew Research Center survey conducted between September 28 and October 4 found that 84 per cent of registered voters considered the economy very important to their midterm vote. The issue ranked ahead of the future of democracy, healthcare, education and immigration. The survey also found that 77 per cent of Americans were dissatisfied with the state of the country, while Trump’s approval rating stood at 30 per cent.

Strong Economic Indicators Fail To Ease Public Discontent

Despite the concerns, several indicators suggest that the US economy has not entered a downturn. Unemployment remains relatively low, weekly unemployment insurance claims are near a 57-year low, and consumer spending has continued to support economic growth. Investment linked to artificial intelligence has also contributed to business expansion and stock-market gains, benefiting households with significant investments.

However, economists have warned that the growth outlook could weaken if companies reduce spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure. Higher oil prices, tariffs and tighter immigration restrictions could also keep inflation elevated even as economic growth slows. Such a combination could increase the risk of stagflation, in which persistent price pressures coincide with weakening economic activity.

The election will determine whether Republicans retain their narrow majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate or Democrats gain control of either chamber. While Trump himself is not on the ballot, voters’ assessment of his economic record could influence the outcome. For Republicans, the challenge is to convince voters that economic growth is translating into improved living standards; for Democrats, affordability offers a central argument against the administration.