US Midterm Elections 2026: Keeping The House Is Easy, Keeping The Senate Is Another Story

With Republicans defending narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress, the November 3 US midterm elections will determine whether President Donald Trump's party retains control of the House and Senate or Democrats regain ground in Washington. Voters will also decide 36 gubernatorial races, elections to state legislatures and 145 statewide ballot measures covering abortion rights, voter identification, taxes, transgender rights and electoral rules.

Republicans face a difficult political climate marked by persistent inflation, an unpopular war with Iran and declining approval ratings for Trump. The president's party has also historically lost congressional seats in midterm elections. Trump has urged voters to retain Republican control, warning: "If you elect a Republican House and a Republican Senate on Nov. 3, we will continue to put America first every single day." He also said that if Democrats take control, "this country will go to hell." Fox News' final Power Rankings rate the Senate race a toss-up and favour Democrats to regain the House.

US Senate: Republicans Defend 53-47 Majority

Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, while Democrats have 45. Two independent senators caucus with Democrats, giving the Democratic-aligned side 47 seats. Fox News' updated final Power Rankings rate the contest for control of the Senate as a toss-up. Democrats are favoured in 48 seats, while Republicans are ahead in 45, with seven battleground states likely to decide the majority. The GOP needs to retain at least 50 seats to maintain control, as Republican Vice President JD Vance would hold the tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 Senate.

The seven battleground states identified by Fox News are Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas. The latest rankings moved Kansas and South Carolina to Toss-up, Nebraska to Lean Republican and Ohio to Lean Democrat. Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire could also become important in the contest. Democrats are ahead in Minnesota and New Hampshire, while Maine remains competitive.

House Of Representatives: Democrats Favoured To Regain Control

According to Fox News' updated forecast, Democrats are projected to win at least 223 seats in the 435-member House. A good election night could see them secure as many as 240 seats, while a particularly strong performance could take their tally to 252. Republicans, meanwhile, have 195 seats in their column and could end up with around 212 if they have a good night. That would leave the GOP six seats short of a majority, but could give the party enough numbers to make legislative decisions difficult for the next Democratic House Speaker, who would have to balance the demands of the moderate and far-left wings of the party.

Fox News contributor Remy Numa identified Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, which includes Lexington, as one to watch. Trump won the district by 15 points in 2024, but college voters and farmers facing higher costs have made the race more competitive, he said.

Governor Races: 36 States Go To The Polls

Voters will also elect governors in 36 states, as well as in Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and the US Virgin Islands.

Republicans currently hold 26 governorships, compared with 24 held by Democrats.

Fox News reported that three Republican-controlled states — Alaska, Nevada and Georgia — have competitive gubernatorial races rated toss-ups. Wisconsin, where Democrats currently hold the governorship but the seat is open, is also rated a toss-up.

The gubernatorial contests in Florida, Kansas and Texas are rated Lean Republican, according to the Power Rankings.

Five other races are rated Lean Democrat. Democrats are defending the governorships in Arizona, Michigan and Oregon, while Republicans are defending open governor's offices in Iowa and Ohio.

Apart from the gubernatorial contests, all but four states are also holding legislative elections.

Ballot Measures: Abortion, Voter ID, Taxes And Transgender Rights

Voter ID And Citizenship Requirements

Ballot measures concerning voter identification requirements and citizenship rules for voting are on the ballot in 11 states: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Kansas, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, South Dakota and West Virginia.

Alaska voters will also decide whether to repeal ranked-choice voting, open primaries and a campaign finance disclosure rule, a system narrowly retained in a 2024 referendum after being adopted in 2020. The system has come under renewed scrutiny amid controversy over a potential spoiler candidate in the state's Senate race.

In Virginia, voters will decide whether to amend the state constitution to automatically restore voting rights to people convicted of felonies upon their release from incarceration.

Taxes and wealth redistribution

California's Proposition 40, described as the first state wealth tax of its kind, proposes a one-time tax of up to 5% on the covered assets of billionaires who were California residents on January 1, 2026. Ninety per cent of the revenue would go towards healthcare, while the remaining 10% would fund food assistance or education-related programmes.

Also in the spotlight is a millionaires' tax initiative in Washington state. Initiative 26-645 seeks to repeal a newly enacted 9.9% tax on annual individual income exceeding $1 million, scheduled to take effect in January 2028. It would also prohibit state and local governments from imposing taxes on individual income. Washington state currently does not have an individual income tax.

Congressional redistricting

Voters in Maryland, Missouri and Colorado will decide redistricting measures, amid a wider partisan battle over congressional boundaries ahead of the 2028 elections.

Transgender rights and healthcare

Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska and Washington state have measures concerning transgender students in sports, while Colorado voters will also decide whether to prohibit gender-transition surgeries for minors and the use of public funding for such procedures.

In Missouri, voters will decide on Amendment 3, which would repeal the 2024 constitutional amendment protecting reproductive healthcare rights, including abortion through fetal viability. The proposal would allow abortions in cases of rape and incest under 12 weeks' gestation, medical emergencies and fetal anomalies. It would also prohibit gender transition procedures for minors, including surgery, cross-sex hormones and puberty-blocking drugs, subject to specified medical exceptions.

Abortion rights

Idaho voters will decide on a measure establishing statutory reproductive healthcare rights, including abortion before fetal viability and in medical emergencies after viability. Virginia and Nevada voters will consider constitutional protections for abortion rights.

US Midterm Elections 2026: When Do Polls Close?

Polls in the states will close in stages on November 3, beginning at 6 pm Eastern Time (ET) and ending in Alaska's Aleutian Islands at 1 am ET on November 4.

6 pm ET: Polls close in parts of Kentucky and Indiana.

7 pm ET: Polls close in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. The remaining polling stations in Kentucky and Indiana also close, along with most polls in Florida and New Hampshire.

7.30 pm ET: Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.

8 pm ET: Polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee and Washington, DC. The remaining polling stations in Florida and New Hampshire also close. Most polls close in Texas, Michigan, Kansas, North Dakota and South Dakota.

8.30 pm ET: Polls close in Arkansas.

9 pm ET: Polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin and Wyoming. The remaining polling stations in Texas, Michigan, Kansas, North Dakota and South Dakota also close.

10 pm ET: Polls close in Montana, Nevada and Utah. Most polling stations in Idaho close, along with ballot drop sites and county election offices in most of Malheur County, Oregon.

11 pm ET: Polls close in California. Ballot drop sites and county election offices in most of Oregon also close, along with the remaining polling stations in Idaho. Washington state's ballot-return locations also close.

Midnight ET: Voting centres in Hawaii close, along with most polling places in Alaska.

1 am ET (November 4): The remaining polling stations in Alaska close.