US Midterms 2026: Modi’s Trump Bet Faces A Reality Check

Narendra Modi openly backed Donald Trump ahead of the 2020 US presidential election, reflecting the Indian government’s preference for a Republican administration and the two leaders’ personal rapport. Seven years later, Trump’s second presidency has strained ties with New Delhi through punitive tariffs, pressure over Russian oil purchases and disagreements over Pakistan.

The November 3 US midterm elections could further complicate the relationship. If Democrats win control of either chamber of Congress, they could intensify scrutiny of Trump’s policies and constrain parts of his agenda. For India, the question is whether a weakened Trump would ease tensions or whether the disagreements reflect a broader shift in Washington.

Why Modi backed Trump and preferred Republicans

India has long enjoyed bipartisan support in Washington, but its strategic establishment has often felt more comfortable with Republican presidents. Relations improved under Ronald Reagan towards the Cold War’s end and advanced under George W Bush, whose administration helped secure the 2008 civil nuclear agreement.

Defence ties expanded under Bush through the 2002 General Security of Military Information Agreement and a 10-year framework in 2005. Under Barack Obama, the countries signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) in 2016 for reciprocal logistical support; it did not establish bases.

Democratic administrations, by contrast, have often been viewed in New Delhi as more critical of India’s human rights record. Trump’s return therefore offered Modi an opportunity to revive a personal relationship cultivated during his first presidency.

At the September 2019 “Howdy, Modi!” rally in Houston, attended by more than 50,000 Indian Americans, Modi praised Trump and declared “Abki baar, Trump sarkaar!” He described Trump as “warm, friendly, accessible, energetic, and full of wit”, Al Jazeera reported.

Trump’s first term also saw the signing of the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in 2018, which enabled India to access secure US communications equipment. The two countries also strengthened cooperation through the Quad, alongside Japan and Australia.

How Trump’s second term changed the equation

Trade has become a major point of friction since Trump returned in January 2025. In February 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not authorise his sweeping tariffs. A temporary 10 per cent global duty imposed under Section 122 expired on July 24 after 150 days; the administration also used other powers, including Sections 301 and 232.

A September law authorised duties of up to 100 per cent on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian crude oil and natural gas, but Trump waived the duties in an October 16 executive order before they took effect. Washington has also pressed New Delhi to reduce Russian oil purchases.

Trump’s repeated claims that he mediated the May 2025 India-Pakistan ceasefire have been rejected by New Delhi, which says the understanding to cease military action was reached directly between the two countries through existing military communication channels, at Pakistan’s request. India is also concerned about Washington’s closer engagement with Pakistan, deportations of undocumented Indian migrants and H-1B restrictions. The White House extended the $100,000 payment requirement for certain new H-1B petitions involving applicants outside the US through September 2027, but court rulings have blocked its collection.

The tensions have prompted New Delhi to depart from its usual preference for handling disagreements with friendly governments privately. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar criticised Washington’s increasingly self-centred approach, saying: “Countries should not be so self-centred that you’re in your own world and take your decision, and say, ‘Well, it was not my intention to make your life difficult’.”

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said trade negotiations had reached a “plateau beyond which giving or taking might be very difficult”. The two countries announced a framework for an interim trade agreement in February, including an 18 per cent reciprocal tariff on specified Indian goods, but the deal remained unsigned. Rubio told The Indian Express on October 21 that it was “99%” complete and could be finalised in weeks, not months. He also said, “None of these tariffs are done to punish or to harm India.”

Milan Vaishnav of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace told Al Jazeera that India could tolerate genuine policy differences with Washington, but “the attacks on India and Indian Americans coming from this administration, and many of their allies in the media and on social media, have struck a nerve”.

What a Democratic victory could mean for India

The November 3 elections will determine control of the House and Senate. A Democratic majority could increase oversight of Trump, but would not automatically reverse his trade or foreign policy decisions.

Reuters reported on October 29 that Democrats were promising to check Trump’s power and reduce living costs. Strong Democratic results, if they match some polls’ forecasts, could “mark the beginning of Trump’s lame-duck presidency”. Trump would nevertheless retain substantial authority over diplomacy and executive action.

Would a weakened Trump benefit India?

Vaishnav told Al Jazeera that “a chastened Trump would be in India’s interests”, arguing that a Democrat-dominated Congress could have a “moderating impact” on Washington’s foreign policy. He said lawmakers from both parties remained committed to a strong US-India partnership.

Michael Kugelman, a Washington-based South Asia analyst, was less optimistic. He doubted the election results would significantly affect Trump’s policy towards India, saying the president would continue pursuing what he considered US economic interests. “If he thinks that could entail threatening additional tariffs on India, then he would do that,” Kugelman said.

International Crisis Group analyst Praveen Donthi said the weakening of bipartisan consensus on India in Washington reflected a shift broader than Trump alone. He also cautioned that a weakened Trump might not bring relief, given a “broader consensus [among Trump-aligned Republicans] on the need to pressure India”. The administration’s measures, he said, had “brought back distrust of the US among the Indian strategic establishment”.

For Modi, the challenge is to protect India’s defence, trade and diplomatic interests while retaining the freedom to pursue an independent foreign policy, including ties with Russia. The midterms could constrain Trump politically, but they are unlikely on their own to resolve the underlying disagreements.