US-Israel War On Iran: Why Gulf Rulers Are Bearing The Brunt Of Retaliation

Gulf rulers are in a dilemma. Caught between a hostile Iran and an emboldened US–Israel axis, the Gulf monarchies are navigating a dangerous new reality. Questions naturally arise whether they were wise to have put all their eggs in the US-Israeli basket? Yet despite the current heartburn over attacks on their infrastructure, the Gulf rulers have little choice but to continue their support and reliance on the US.

Long wary of Iran’s Shia revolutionary government, they are now acutely vulnerable to retaliation on their energy infrastructure and shipping lanes. They are threatening to take retaliatory action if this continues. The Gulf area, long -projected as a secure haven for business and industry, is now being daily exposed to Iranian drone and missile  attacks.

The region’s rulers find themselves exposed in a war they neither sought nor can escape. Yet their position is far from straightforward. Even as they publicly call for de-escalation, several Gulf States have quietly pressed Washington to ensure that Iran emerges from the conflict decisively weakened, unable to threaten them again. Reports suggesting that some, particularly Saudi Arabia, may have encouraged President Donald Trump to press ahead, remain unverified. But they underscore the region’s deep anxieties and strategic hedging.

For now, there is also unease that the United States remains more committed to safeguarding Israel than the security of its Gulf partners.

And looming over the conflict is a larger, unresolved question: when the guns fall silent, will a militarily strengthened Israel redraw the balance of power in ways that leave the Gulf States confronting a new, and potentially more complex, threat? For now there is no public discussion on the issue.

Not that they were not forewarned of the consequences. Tehran had said many times that in case of a US strike on Iran, American bases in the region would be under attack. Soon after the February 28 coordinated US and Israeli strikes, Iran took aim at US military installations all across the Gulf region. With the Strait of Hormuz now becoming the focal point of the war, exports are also being affected.

Since then, for every attack by the US and Israel, Iran replied in kind. It targeted airports, seaports, hotels and oil refineries. The debris from missile interceptions has produced several casualties. As the war intensified, and a drone hit Qatar’s energy site, it has suspended LNG production, Saudi Arabia closed the Ras Tanura refinery as a precaution; Iraq and Kuwait have reduced their oil production as exports options through the Strait of Hormuz became more dangerous.

The region's ruling class is concerned about the long-term economic fall out of the war. Gulf equity markets are already volatile. Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth flows, Saudi Arabia’s vision 2030, a pet project of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, all depend on predictability and market confidence. With no early end to the war in sight, fear of capital flight from the region is of concern to the Gulf rulers.

There is public anger at being drawn into a conflict not of their choosing. "Who gave you [Trump] the authority to drag our region into a war with #Iran? Who gave you permission to turn our region into a battlefield?" asks Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, President of the Emirates Policy Center.

 Despite the desire to stay out of the war, Gulf analysts argue that Iran's actions have destroyed trust and increased the need for a long-term solution. “The US decapitating the Iranian regime for good is definitely the only option we have now. Otherwise, any time Iran is under pressure, they know they can hit the Gulf, they know they can blockade the strait of Hormuz," says Muhanad Seloom, Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.

Yet the Gulf Cooperation Council members are unlikely to change their stand on the US and Israel, despite concerns that after the war ends, Israel is likely to be the dominant military and political force in the region. There is little unity among the Gulf-Arab leaders with the growing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Two of the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, the UAE and Bahrain, have signed the Abraham accords and have full diplomatic relations with Israel.  Saudi Arabia was close to   normalising ties with Israel, before the Hamas attack in 2023 threw these plans out of the window.  Kuwait and Qatar have kept their distance and Oman hovers between informal ties and what is termed as ``positive neutrality."

``In practice, GCC states have already demonstrated that they are firmly aligned with U.S. strategy through concrete operational coordination, even though Washington’s actions placed the Gulf directly in the crosshairs of retaliation,’’ says Dania Thafer, executive director of the Washington -based  Gulf International Forum. `` Whatever private reservations the Gulf states may have, the reality is stark: a war initiated in Washington has reshaped their security environment, narrowed their room for manoeuvre, and left them with little choice but to stand alongside the United States,’’ she adds.

The Gulf rulers will for the near future cannot afford to jettison their ties with the US, as they are yet to build a security framework to suit the region.