Trump’s Iran Gamble: Is Washington Ready to Strike And What Lies Ahead?

Diplomacy is still on the table. But the signs are ominous, a strike on Iran by the US, and perhaps Israel, is very much on the cards. Both sides are playing for time and extending negotiations that have actually gone nowhere, despite reassuring public statements by the negotiators. America’s maximalist position that Iran stop uranium enrichment and put a lid on its nuclear  programme, is a tough ask for the regime. They are, however, dragging on the charade of negotiations as Iran prepares as best it can for the final assault.

Washington is now ready. All its forces are  in place, a second aircraft carrier is inching closer to the region leading to reports in some American networks that action can be expected as soon as this weekend. The White House has warned that Iran would be "very wise" to make a deal. But the final call is yet to be taken.

Last year’s 12-day war between Iran and Israel (with the US joining for one lethal blow on Iran’s nuclear site)  exposed Iran’s weakness. Despite losing top commanders and military infrastructure which were targeted by Israel, Tehran still has the capability to target American troops stationed in the region. Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq all host US military personnel, numbering from 40,000 to 50,000  shifting personnel at a given time.

US bases can be easily targeted by Iran. Tehran has already warned that American military bases, facilities and assets in West Asia would become legitimate targets if the US attacked Iran. Earlier the Supreme Leader had warned that a war in Iran would not be confined to the country but would engulf the entire region.

In case of war, Iran will also try to block the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes. Around a fifth of the world's oil and gas flows through the Strait and a blockade here will send oil prices surging.

President Trump is unlikely to put American troops on the ground. What is America's objective in the region?

Taking another shot at Iran’s nuclear facility, destroying it completely this time so that there is no way that Iran can rebuild again? Regime change, to throw out the Islamic revolutionary government?  Or, both? 

During the protests, Trump had told the people of Iran that ``help was on the way.’’ and to continue demonstrations against the regime. However nothing much happened then and talks began while Washington got its military arsenal in position.

Trump and his team know that the regime in Iran is at its weakest and a military strike now could give Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s suppressive regime a final push. Analysts say that Iran does not have the capacity to threaten the US but can harm its regional interests.

 For Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iran is a major threat. It is the only country that stands in the way of Israel's overall dominance of the region.   He has already established Israeli military superiority by destroying Iran’s surrogates from Hamas, to Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and the Iraq militia groups.  Bashar-el Asad is no longer ruling Damascus and Israel can strike wherever it wants inside Syria. Israel wants to ensure that there is no one to challenge the Jewish state. Regime change in Iran with a pro-Israeli government installed in Tehran has long been a Zionist dream. The late Shah of Iran was both pro Western powers and close to Israel.

But the bigger question for Trump is, if the regime actually collapses, what are the consequences? Who takes over is the question. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are deeply embedded in the system and are protectors of the theocratic state. The inflection point in Iran will come when parts of this elite force turn against the Supreme Leader. There are no signs yet of that happening.

In Iran there is no opposition waiting in the wings.  The son of the Shah of Iran is hoping to mobilise public support. He is very popular among the expatriate Iranians, but whether he has a base inside the country is a question mark. Having lived in exile for several decades, his connection with an Iran that has changed dramatically is difficult to foresee at the moment. Like his father, he is a friend of Israel. Young Iranians may not be familiar with the Shah and have little idea of his rule. But among the older generation there is a visceral dislike for the Shah. The memory of American attempts at regime change in Iraq and Afghanistan will also have to be weighed in before launching another war in West Asia. The Trump administration has given no hint on what it has in mind.

As tension continues to escalate in West Asia, the real gamble is not whether the US can strike Iran, it certainly can, but if it can control the chaos that follows a crushing military defeat. Is regime change the answer?