Timing of PM Modi's Trip  To Israel Raises Pertinent Questions

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two-day visit to Israel, beginning Wednesday comes at a time when the Global South has turned decisively against Israel over the Gaza war that has in many ways reshaped global alliances. Those opposed to Modi's trip say a visit to Israel by no less a person than India’s Prime Minister would be an indirect endorsement of Israeli action in Gaza.

This will be PM Modi’s first visit to Israel since the Hamas attack of  October 2023.  Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is delighted, as Modi’s visit breaks the narrative of  Israel’s isolation from the Global South. His presence provides Israel with strategic legitimacy beyond its traditional allies in Washington and Europe. Many in India will question the timing of the Prime Minister visit, more so as New Delhi has since independence supported the Palestinian cause. Officially India continues to articulate the two-state solution with Israel and Palestine living side by side in peace.

Netanyahu’s government has been accused of war crimes by the International Criminal Court in a case filed by South Africa, a country with a long history of fighting apartheid. A  UN-established Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory reported that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.

The importance of PM Modi’s visit to Israel cannot be overstated. He will receive a red-carpet welcome in Israel. “On Wednesday, the PM of India, my friend Narendra Modi, will arrive in Israel. In the vision I see before my eyes, we will create a complete system of alliances around or within the Middle East," Netanyahu said in remarks on Sunday, obviously thrilled to welcome Modi. The Indian leader will address Israel’s Parliament or Knesset, a rare honour reserved for close friends.

Just after the Hamas attack the international community's sympathies were with Israel. But since then much of the sympathy has disappeared as images of the killings in Gaza have brought the horror of Israeli action to the rest of the world.

Apart from Americans, including both president Biden and Trump and a host of US-leaders, few world leaders have visited Israel. Argentina’s President Javier Milei, a close ally of the US, travelled to Israel twice and shifted the country’s embassy to Jerusalem. Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited in 2024. Paraguay’s President Santiago Peña was there in 2024 to reaffirm his country’s solidarity with Israel, King Abdulla of Jordan and Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni both visited in early 2024.All through last year except for Donald Trump and US officials and lawmakers no important world leaders especially from the Global South visited Israel.

Yet despite the  alliance between India and Israel, Prime Minister Modi is performing a  balancing act by also signing on a statement issued by over 100 countries to condemn Israel’s expansion of West Bank settlements and saying it was against international law.  Initially New Delhi refused to do so, but had a change of heart. By doing so New Delhi remains on the right side of Global South opinion, but knows very well that such statements have little significance on the ground.

What is of significance is hard power and military might. Israel at the moment is on top of its game, having proved its military dominance in the region, something that the rest of the Arab world has watched with growing concern. Things came to a head with Israel’s failed targeting of the remaining Hamas political leadership in Doha last September on the 9th. The air strike on Qatar sent shock waves across the Gulf Arab states. The Hamas negotiating team was in Doha to discuss the ceasefire proposal. Qatar condemned the Israeli attack, calling it "cowardly" and a "flagrant violation of international law".

Weeks later a nervous  Saudi Arabia wrapped up a  bilateral defence agreement with Pakistan to enhance  security against regional threats with an eye on Israel’s growing military dominance in West Asia. The agreement focused on intelligence sharing and joint defence, with reports indicating that Turkey would   be joining this pact.

``Modi’s visit this week signals the reaffirmation of the Israel –UAE-India strategic alignment  at a time when, in the background of the Gaza war, various  new affiliations are being shaped in the region, with Pakistan emerging as an important player in them,’’ says Talmiz Ahmad, a former ambassador to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. ``PM Modi’s visit is aimed at safeguarding India’s diverse interests in West Asia as Israel, India and the UAE are consolidating their security partnership and looking at greater defence, AI and  technological collaboration in future.’’

Netanyahu in his comments on Modi’s visit mentioned a hexagon of alliances. He said: “In the vision I see before me, we will create an entire system, essentially a 'hexagon' of alliances around or within the Middle East. This includes India, Arab nations, African nations, Mediterranean nations (Greece and Cyprus), and nations in Asia that I won't detail at the moment. I will present this in an organised manner.’’

Netanyahu’s ideas of a hexagon of nations to fight radical  Sunnis and Shias  is an idea that has so far not been conceptualised in detail.

`` The ties between India and Israel and the UAE are at the heart of this new nexus. Other partners that come to mind are Ethiopia and Somaliland, the breakaway province of Somalia, but beyond that no other country is in sight at the moment,’’ says Talmiz Ahmad. “Again, Netanyahu is possibly referring to the emerging alignment between Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan, but this is hardly a "radical" Sunni grouping. Perhaps, the references to radical Islam are aimed at alluring India more robustly to the Israel--UAE affiliation,’’ explains Ahmad.

Last December, Israel became the first country to formally recognise Somaliland, a breakaway province of Somalia. It is aiming to establish a strategic foothold in the Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Aden to counter Houthi threats in the Red Sea and expand its regional influence alongside the UAE. The UAE has invested heavily in the development of Somaliland’s Berbera port and is backing connectivity projects to link Ethiopia with Somaliland. Israel's presence in Somaliland will make it a significant presence in the Western Indian Ocean and the Red Sea.

Much of what Netanyahu hopes to achieve in the region may become clearer during Modi’s visit. While India’s friendship with Israel is now well established, whether this is the right time for an official visit to Israel remains a question mark.