Strait Talk: Is Trump’s Ambiguous Speech A Ploy To Lull Iran Into Lowering Its Guard At Hormuz?

U.S. President Donald Trump’s national address from the White House was keenly watched for hints of a timeline and an endgame to America’s war of choice in Iran. None of that was clear. What was apparent was a striking shift on Trump’s views on the Hormuz Strait.

After declaring that the US would take control and ensure uninterrupted passage of ships and tankers through the choke point, Trump walked back from his previous position. In his latest address Trump declared that the United States “does not need the oil,” suggesting that countries dependent on Gulf energy in Asia and Europe, should shoulder the burden of keeping the Strait working.

``The United States imports almost no oil through the Hormuz Strait, and won't be taking any in the future. We don't need it. We haven't needed it, and we don't need it. And the countries of the world that do receive oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage. They must cherish it. They must grab it and cherish it," Trump said.

The Hormuz Strait has become the X factor in the current war with 20 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil trade passing through the narrow waterways controlled by Iran. Before the war, around 20 million barrels of oil moved through it daily. Oil prices have shot up thanks to restrictions placed by Iran in an effort to disrupt global oil flow. has the US given up the idea of securing the waterway as too risky a mission?

So, Or is this an attempt to make other countries in Asia and Europe that are dependent on Gulf oil take responsibility? Trump has long tried to gather an international coalition comprising NATO members as well as China and Japan to help de-choke the Hormuz Strait. European allies were not enthusiastic about sending their forces on a dangerous assignment for a war that was initiated by the US without consulting or informing them.

Yet America has been beefing up its war preparations by sending additional troops to the region. Will they be used for a quick operation on the Kharg Island, through which Iran exports over 90 per cent of its oil?  There was talk at one time of securing Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. But Trump ruled this out by saying that Iran’s nuclear sites have been hit so hard that “it would take months to get near the nuclear dust.” He said the United States has satellites monitoring the sites and would attack if Iran made a move to retrieve the material. The nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran were primarily focused on handing over this stockpile to either the IAEA or removing them to another country.

Not just this, Trump warned of a dangerous escalation of the war. “Over the next two to three weeks, we’re going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong,” he said. He threatened to hit Iranian electric power plants and target  oil facilities if Tehran didn’t submit to his demands for a peace deal. He also said that “We are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly, very shortly.”

While intensifying the current bombing campaign to destroy Iran’s infrastructure is very much on the cards and Trump is placing the facts before the American public, what he said about the Strait of Hormuz cannot be taken at face value.

Will the US not secure the Strait of Hormuz, which is leading to a spike in oil prices and affecting the global economy. For a President sensitive to every move in the stock and bond market and price of oil, is it possible?

 Or is this a mere bluff to mislead Iran. This could be a ploy to lull Iran into lowering its guard on the Strait of Hormuz? Nobody is sure what the aim is.

It could be that Trump is sending out mixed signals in what experts term as strategic ambiguity to keep the enemy guessing and complicate Iran’s response calculations. If the Strait is no longer an immediate flashpoint, Iran could be lulled into complacency. If Trump’s remarks are indeed a bluff, any misreading by Iran could prove costly. Iran's military capacity has already been severely damaged, but its strategic calculations have remained intact. The global economy has been hit hard by restrictions on the waterways. Trump’s  latest speech suggests that uncertainty itself may be the most potent weapon in play.