Pakistan Blames India's Fireworks, But Lahore's Own Pollution Sources Tell Another Story

Pakistan has blamed fireworks during India's Diwali celebrations for worsening air pollution in Lahore, which ranked as the world's most polluted major city for a second consecutive day on Tuesday. However, an assessment by the Pakistan Air Quality Initiative (PAQI) has questioned the specific attribution, saying available evidence does not establish that fireworks across the border caused the city's deteriorating air quality.

Punjab Senior Minister Marriyum Aurangzeb said on November 9 that pollutants from India had travelled towards Pakistan with light and easterly winds following Diwali celebrations on November 8. In a post on X, she cited pollution readings from Indian Punjab locations, including Amritsar, Jalandhar, Ludhiana and Bathinda, and warned Lahore residents about the health risks.

Lahore topped Swiss air-quality monitoring group IQAir's ranking of the world's most polluted major cities on Tuesday, with an Air Quality Index (AQI) reading of 263, categorised as "very unhealthy". Its concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was 37.2 times higher than the World Health Organization's annual guideline, according to IQAir.

What Does The Data Show?

A Sunday assessment by Pakistan's Punjab Environment Protection and Climate Change Department had warned that Diwali fireworks and crop-residue burning in Indian Punjab could worsen air quality in Lahore and adjoining districts. It estimated that fireworks smoke could reach Lahore within five to 13 hours, depending on wind conditions. The assessment also cited 2,347 crop-burning incidents in Indian Punjab up to November 4.

However, PAQI's assessment, released on November 10, found that while air trajectories did travel from India towards Pakistan, the available evidence did not establish fireworks as the cause of Lahore's pollution spike.

Of 48 air-mass back trajectories arriving in Lahore, Kasur and Sialkot between Sunday and Tuesday, 45 had passed over Indian territory in the preceding 12 hours. But Lahore's average PM2.5 concentration during the period rose by 10% compared with the same hours over the previous seven days. The increase was 40% in both Faisalabad and Multan, further inland, a pattern that did not support the explanation of pollution being transported primarily across the border.

PAQI also said distinguishing fireworks emissions from agricultural smoke would require chemical analysis of particulate matter, including potassium, strontium and barium, which Pakistani monitoring stations did not measure.

Pollution On Both Sides

India's Punjab recorded 4,657 stubble-burning incidents up to Monday, according to data released by the Punjab Pollution Control Board. The state registered 1,442 FIRs and imposed environmental compensation of ₹7.28 crore, reflecting the continuing challenge of controlling crop-residue fires.

Pollution sources also exist within Pakistan. PAQI detected 16,714 likely crop-residue fires in Punjab between October 1 and Monday. It said stagnant weather and reduced atmospheric dispersion contributed to the accumulation of pollutants in Lahore.

The findings indicate that air pollution can cross the India-Pakistan border, but identifying the contribution of individual sources requires more than tracking wind direction. The available assessment does not establish that Diwali fireworks were responsible for Lahore's pollution spike.