Netanyahu’s Old Vote Bank Is Showing Signs Of Cracking Ahead Of Israel Election

Some of Benjamin Netanyahu’s longtime supporters are now campaigning against him in Dimona, a southern Israeli town where his Likud party won around half the vote in 2022. Their shift towards rival Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party highlights a challenge for the prime minister as he seeks to retain power amid criticism of his handling of the security failures surrounding the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack and the wars that followed.

Israel’s October 27 election is its first since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, which exposed major security failures and was followed by wars in Gaza and with Iran, as well as fighting in Lebanon. Opinion polls have indicated that Netanyahu’s coalition of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties could lose its parliamentary majority. But dissatisfaction with the prime minister does not necessarily translate into support for Eisenkot, whose path to power remains uncertain.

Polls Reveal Uncertainty Among Likud’s Former Voters

The challenge for Netanyahu is reflected in voting intentions among people who backed Likud in the previous election. Data collected by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute shows that only 55% of Likud voters from 2022 now intend to vote for the party again.

Another 15% plan to support parties opposed to Netanyahu, including 8% who favour Yashar. A further 14% intend to vote for alternative right-wing parties, while 9% remain undecided. Separately, around 13% of Israeli voters overall have yet to decide how they will vote.

The figures suggest that Likud faces competition from both the opposition and other parties on the right. They also show why voters who have not settled on a party could matter in a close contest.

Reuters reported that Dimona has become a battleground for these competing efforts. The town, in the Negev Desert, was struck by an Iranian missile in March, leaving dozens of people wounded.

Yossi Assayag, 74, who supported Likud for most of his life, is among residents going door to door to persuade others to vote for Eisenkot.

“We must have change. Bibi has to go,” Assayag said. “Bibi has brought disaster to Israel.”

Not all longtime supporters agree. Ruti Ohana, a pensioner who has voted for Likud since immigrating to Israel from North Africa more than 60 years ago, remains loyal to the party.

“I will never betray Likud,” she said. Ohana believes Netanyahu is better suited to lead the country than his rivals and considers the criticism he faces over the October 7 attack unfair.

A Battle Over Likud’s Traditional Constituency

The divide in Dimona is rooted partly in the history of Israel’s electoral politics. Likud has long attracted support from Mizrahi Jews, whose families originate in the Middle East and North Africa. Many in the community felt neglected by the centre-left Labor Party, influenced by European Jewish political traditions, which dominated Israeli politics for generations.

Labor has since declined as Israeli politics have moved to the right. Around half a dozen parties, from the political centre to the far right, are now seeking to win over voters who have traditionally backed Likud. But longstanding party loyalties remain difficult to break.

Oria Asaf, 25, who previously voted for Likud but now supports Yashar, believes that changing these loyalties requires voters to reconsider what they want for the next generation.

“Most people here vote for Likud just because that's how they were raised,” Asaf said. “The change will come when people start to think about their children's future rather than their parents' past.”

Michal Elmalem Abu, who was elected to Dimona’s city council as a Likud member and now leads Eisenkot’s local campaign, is focusing on voters who are open to changing sides rather than those who remain firmly behind Netanyahu.

She said the campaign was targeting people who “understand that we are in a state of crisis”.

Political scientist Amotz Asa-El of the Hartman Institute said places such as Dimona offered Eisenkot an opportunity to win over part of Likud’s traditional electorate.

Eisenkot and Netanyahu Make Their Cases

Eisenkot, 66, is the son of Moroccan immigrants and rose through the military ranks to become Israel’s chief of staff. His background has helped him appeal to voters from the Mizrahi community, Asa-El said, describing his story as one that “appeals to a big swath of the Israeli electorate, particularly Likud's traditional electorate”.

His military credentials are another asset in a political field crowded with former soldiers. The death of his son, who was killed in combat in Gaza in December 2023, has also resonated with voters.

During a town hall meeting in Dimona in July, residents expressed enthusiasm about the possibility of a leader of Mizrahi descent. Others approached Eisenkot with hugs and tearful condolences over his son’s death.

Netanyahu has countered such appeals by emphasising his government’s record of investment in the Negev, where Likud administrations have long highlighted development funding.

A week after Eisenkot’s visit, Netanyahu held an event in the area and asked residents to consider the changes made under successive governments.

“Look around you, look at your community, look at what was here then and what is here now, and ask yourselves which governments invested in this monumental effort. And I do this out of immense love,” he said.

Lior Katzav, a former Likud mayor of Kiryat Malachi, another small-town stronghold, said party surveys showed that some voters who had abandoned Likud were returning as the election approached.

Dissatisfaction Does Not Guarantee a Likud Defeat

First elected prime minister in 1996, Netanyahu is Israel’s longest-serving leader, having held office across multiple terms. At 77, he is also facing voters who believe it is time for a different leader.

David Iskali, a software engineer from Dimona, said he recognised Netanyahu’s past achievements but no longer intended to vote for him.

“It's time for him to go,” Iskali said. “He's done a lot for Israel but it can't go on. I won't give my vote to someone almost 80-years-old.”

In Dimona, Eisenkot’s campaign faces a difficult calculation: winning over voters who have lost faith in Netanyahu without assuming that dissatisfaction with the prime minister will translate into votes for Yashar.