Israel-Iran Conflict: Drink From The Poisoned Chalice

Missiles no longer streak the night sky, and the thunderous explosions of falling bombs have faded. The 12-day war, initiated by Israel on Iran, came to an abrupt halt with a ceasefire imposed by US President Donald Trump, leaving behind damaged buildings, mountains of debris as well as shifting power dynamics, and the unfinished business of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions hanging in the air. Where do Israel, Iran and the US go from here? Will there be permanent peace or is this just a lull before a storm?

Iran’s much vaunted air power lies exposed. Its bark is worse than its bite as it grasps at the ceasefire as a chance to rebuild its shattered image. Israel’s military reputation continues to overwhelm, but carrying the campaign much longer would have come at a cost. A drawn-out war of attrition would have drained both nations, Iran far more than Israel. As the dust settles, a new battle is emerging over the narrative, perception, and regional dominance.

For Trump, the US action was a high-stakes gamble to secure a quick foreign policy win. Speculation around whether America’s B-2 bombers succeeded in destroying Iran’s nuclear enrichment facility at Fordow seems to have dimmed the initial euphoria. The president and his team are pushing back against these accusations by lashing out at the “fake” media, and insist that Iran’s nuclear facilities were “obliterated” by the heavy bunker buster bombs. It is, however, too early to come to any definite conclusion. If true, it would be a dramatic victory for Trump. Meanwhile, Tehran, despite the setbacks, claims symbolic bragging rights, framing its resistance as proof of defiance and survival. In a show of bravado, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared victory over Israel in his first message after the war, warning that the US “will definitely pay a heavy price” if it dares to attack Iran again. This is, of course, for domestic consumption.

The ceasefire is holding. Khamenei’s regime, though weakened, has survived. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s popularity has skyrocketed for taking on Iran that no other Israeli leader had dared. Trump’s doctrine of peace through strength is being played out. At the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in the Netherlands, Trump hinted at talks with Iran, but also proclaimed that nuclear talks were of no importance as the US had already destroyed that country’s nuclear facilities.

“We are going to talk to them next week, with Iran. We may sign an agreement. I don’t know… I don’t care if I have an agreement or not,” he told reporters at The Hague. “The only thing we would be asking for is what we were asking for before… we want no nuclear, but we destroyed the nuclear… it’s blown up to kingdom come. I don’t care very strongly about it. If we got a document, it wouldn’t be bad.” Make what you may of this.

Steve Witkoff, US special envoy for the region, was in constant touch with Iran all through the air war. He was in the middle of indirect talks facilitated by Oman with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and a team of Iranian negotiators and was to meet for the sixth round on June 15, but Israel’s strikes on June 13 put an end to the discussions. The negotiations appear to have been substantive—a new report from CNN has said that the Trump administration had discussed helping Iran access as much as $30 billion for a civilian nuclear programme. It would involve easing sanctions and freeing billions of dollars of frozen funds. “Those discussions have continued this week after a ceasefire deal was struck,” CNN quoted sources as saying.

But the US position is unaltered when it comes to nuclear weapons, the red lines remain. Trump has said zero enrichment, and a complete rollback of Iran’s nuclear programme. That would be a bitter pill for the Iranian regime to swallow.

Iran has, so far, not indicated whether talks will resume as Trump had suggested. Tehran knows it will have to engage with the US to secure the regime’s goals. But it needs to do some stocktaking at home and get its act together. The crackdown on people has already begun. Immediately after the ceasefire, hundreds of Iranians were arrested on charges of spying—at least four got the death sentence. The rhetoric will continue fast and loud for the domestic audience, but an easing of tension with the US and Europe is on the cards. The timeline could be now or after a few weeks.

Will Iran agree to stop uranium enrichment and give up its nuclear ambitions? “Today, Iran needs some breathing room and if that means a deal with the US, it will then accept it. How it deals with the zero enrichment demand remains to be seen, but this time when it gains some breathing room, it is unlikely to be content with ‘threshold status’, but will ensure that it crosses the finish line,” says Rakesh Sood, retired Indian diplomat and an expert on nuclear issues.

Khamenei’s first priority will be to rebuild his shattered country and ensure that the gains of the Iranian Revolution are intact. Iran’s military capacity is considerably weakened with the top leadership decapitated. The regime has little choice but to make compromises on the nuclear question, at least for now, and “drink from the poisoned chalice”. This phrase was first used by the first Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the Islamic revolution, when he had to make peace with Iraq’s Saddam Hussein—then supported by the US and the West in 1988. A similar moment in history is now confronting his successor, the 86-year-old Ali Khamenei.

While for the Ayatollah, preservation of the country’s Islamic legacy is a priority, ordinary people are angry over the regime’s inability to protect them during the Israeli attacks. Their skies were left unmanned as the country’s air defence was almost defunct, missiles downed, and people were left to fend for themselves, as no thought had been given to build bomb shelters, unlike in Israel. People are yearning for peace, yearning for a stop to constant war mongering and hope that relations with the US improve so they can live without looking over their shoulders. People want this regime to go, but at the moment—as Iranians are rallying around the flag—it seems unlikely. Another major problem is the lack of a viable opposition, as opposition political leaders have languished in jail for long.

Meanwhile, Israel has established itself as a power to reckon with in the region. “The wars between Israel and Hamas, Israel and Hezbollah and now, Israel and Iran, have confirmed Israel’s technological and strategic supremacy in the broader Middle East. Israel’s state and non-state enemies’ capabilities have been neutralised (Iran) or dismantled (Hezbollah, Hamas), in whole or in large part. The wars have also highlighted the country’s deep dependence on the US for arms and ELINT (electronic intelligence), not to speak of the permanent and one-off financial support offered by the US,” says Philip Golub, a professor at the American University of Paris.

For Netanyahu, the Iran war has come as a bonus. A recent flash poll by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) shows that about 82 per cent of Jewish Israelis support Netanyahu’s attack on Iran. They feel safer now. However, the question of Gaza and the hostages remains an issue. Unless a solution to Palestine is found, there can be no lasting peace in the region. There are early signs that Netanyahu and Trump are aware of this. Trump and Netanyahu are considering an end to the war in two weeks and getting more Arab states, presumably Saudi Arabia, to sign an agreement to normalise ties with Israel. It is well known that Saudi Arabia cannot sign a version of the Abraham Accord—which normalised ties between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan—while the Gaza carnage goes on unabated. There is chatter of a dramatic expansion of the normalisation agreements.

“We fought valiantly against Iran—and achieved a great victory,” Netanyahu is reported by the Israeli press as saying. “This victory opens up an opportunity for a dramatic expansion of the peace agreements. We are working hard on this, along with the release of our hostages and the defeat of Hamas.” “There is a window of opportunity here that must not be missed. Not even a single day can be wasted,” said Netanyahu. Which way the narrative unfolds is not clear. Is it a ploy to escape the corruption case that has dogged Netanyahu’s political career in the last few years, forcing him to build a coalition with religious extremists? In an unusual move, Trump has called for the cancellation of Netanyahu’s corruption case.

The US president has done what no one else had dared before. Trump—who promised peace and said that American lives and funds are not wasted on foreign wars—ordered the B2 Stealth bombers to drop 30,000-pound bunker busters on Fordow, the nuclear facility hidden deep inside the mountains. But his claim, to have “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme, is being questioned. Experts agree that there has been substantial damage, but the extent needs to be verified, which will be clear in a couple of weeks or more. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is pushing back big-time on the naysayers and claiming victory. The president’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) supporters, some of whom were angry with USA’s involvement, are now satisfied that Trump will not be dragged into a long-term war. The fact that he called for a ceasefire soon after attacking Iran has cooled tempers. The question now is whether Trump can force Netanyahu to stop the war in Gaza and work on a two-state solution and bring peace to the region.

“Iran will come out better. All sides will get a face-saver—Iran for shooting missiles at the US base in Qatar, which was already emptied out; Israel for being seen as having forced Iran’s hand to agree to a ceasefire after their nuclear reactors were attacked; and, the US for having attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities, even though their own initial intelligence report points to damage that can be rebuilt easily. Iran will now be able to sell their oil, probably get over the sanctions, and the Europeans will be more amenable to do business with Iran,” says Anil Wadhwa, a former ambassador and retired diplomat of the Union ministry of external affairs, summing up the situation after the 12-day war.

“Iran is an ancient civilisation, It remains to be seen how the US, Israel and the West in general can keep the Iranian nuclear programme in check if they pull out of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT),” adds Wadhwa. But Iran now needs to mend fences with the US and is unlikely to pull out of the NPT.

Seema Guha is a senior journalist covering foreign affairs

This article is part of Outlook Magazine's July 11, 2025 issue, Making Bombing Great Again, which explores India’s fragile borderlands and the human cost of conflict. It appeared in print as 'Drink From The Poisoned Chalice'.