Reasons Why BJP Doesn’t Leave Nitish Kumar, The 'Master Of Social Engineering'

Bihar’s political history is a story of shifting social coalitions, where caste arithmetic has often determined the rise and fall of leaders. While Lalu Prasad Yadav forged a powerful M-Y (Muslim–Yadav) alliance that embodied the ideals of social justice in the 1990s, Nitish Kumar outmaneuvered Lalu’s dominant coalition through deft social engineering—a process that included strategic caste reclassification and targeted welfare-driven inclusion.

By mobilizing the Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs), Mahadalits, Pasmanda Muslims, and women, Nitish built a new social base that not only fractured Lalu’s traditional support but also sustained his own two-decade-long hold on power.

Dr. D.M. Diwakar, former director of the A.N. Sinha Institute, Patna, attests to Nitish Kumar’s nuanced and tactful understanding of Bihar’s social fabric:  “When a politician from a caste (Kurmi) that constitutes less than three percent of Bihar’s population can hold power for two decades, it is no ordinary feat.”

Mandal Shaped Bihar Politics

The roots of caste politics in Bihar deepened after independence, when upper castes ruled the state for about twenty years. Between 1980 and 1990 alone, Bihar had five chief ministers—all from upper castes. The political awakening of Dalits and backward classes gradually displaced this dominance.

The Mandal movement of the 1990s changed both the direction and the nature of Bihar’s politics, bringing forth regional parties and leaders from marginalized backgrounds such as Karpoori Thakur, Lalu Prasad Yadav, and Nitish Kumar. For the last four decades, Bihar’s power has revolved around two men—Lalu and Nitish—both products of the JP Movement of the 1970s.

After the 1974 student movement, Lalu emerged as the only student leader to reach the Lok Sabha in 1977. In 1990, after serving as the leader of the opposition, he became chief minister of Bihar, with Nitish Kumar as one of his MLAs. Fifteen years later, Nitish would use Lalu’s own strategy of social engineering to defeat his brand of social justice politics and replace him as Bihar’s dominant political figure for the next two decades.

Prem Kumar Mani, who has worked closely with both leaders, says: “There is no doubt that Lalu was the biggest leader of the backward castes, with a deep understanding of politics. Had he not succumbed to family obsession, he could have become prime minister.”

Focus on M-Y Became Lalu's Weakness

During the early 1990s, when L.K. Advani’s Rath Yatra threatened communal harmony, it was said that then Prime Minister V.P. Singh asked Lalu Prasad to stop it. Lalu had Advani arrested in Samastipur, preventing communal unrest in Bihar. This made Muslims rally behind him, strengthening his M-Y (Muslim–Yadav) equation.

However, in 1994, Nitish Kumar and George Fernandes broke away from the Janata Dal to form the Samata Party, opposing Lalu. In the 1995 elections, despite their efforts, Lalu’s RJD won 167 seats with 29% of the vote, while Nitish’s new party secured only seven seats with 7%.

During Lalu’s era, the Yadavs became politically dominant and alienated other backward groups. Analysts note that the biggest damage to Lalu wasn’t the “Jungle Raj” image, but being branded as the leader of only Yadavs and Muslims. That’s why Tejashwi Yadav later changed this rhetoric and began calling the RJD an “A-to-Z party,” trying to broaden its social base once again. 

As Lalu faced the fodder scam and imprisonment, his focus shifted to family politics, alienating sections of the backward castes.

The 2005 Bihar Assembly elections gave the NDA—led by Nitish (JD(U)) and the BJP—a sweeping majority of 143 out of 243 seats. In 2010, this alliance grew even stronger with 206 seats, while the RJD shrank to 22.

Targeted Welfare of EBCs, Backward Muslims

According to Dr. Diwakar, Nitish understood Bihar’s caste realities better than anyone else. Like Karpoori Thakur, who created Annexure-I to classify OBCs, Nitish expanded the system by introducing Annexure-II based on the Mungeri Lal Commission. He divided OBCs into EBCs (Extremely Backward Castes) and Dalits into Mahadalits, thereby weakening the bases of both Lalu and Ram Vilas Paswan.

Nitish attracted upper-caste votes through his alliance with the BJP and later solidified EBC loyalty through Panchayati Raj reservations. 

By 2005, a substantial segment of Muslims also began supporting Nitish.  Nitish also worked with Ali Anwar, a prominent leader of Pasmanda (backward) Muslims, to highlight their issues—thus fragmenting the Muslim vote. He made several members of the pasmanda politics like Anwar Member of Parliament.

Under his rule, the EBC Commission was formed in 2006, followed by Annexure-II in 2008. EBCs were given 20% reservation in Panchayat elections. In 2007, the Mahadalit Commission was established, and in 2008, 20 Dalit castes were classified as Mahadalits.

As per the 2023 caste survey, backward classes constitute 63% of Bihar’s population—36% being EBCs. Dalits form 19.65%, Muslims 18%, and upper castes 15.5%.

Journalist Manikant Thakur says:  “When EBCs moved towards Nitish, Lalu lost power. Since then, EBCs have been the single most decisive factor keeping the RJD out of government.”

The early EBC coalition which supported Nitish was called Pachpania (a group of 55 castes), which has now grown to over 112, as per the latest caste survey. 

Analysts often summarize Nitish’s approach thus: he split both Dalits and OBCs—making Lalu the leader of Yadavs and Muslims, and Paswan the leader of Paswans alone.

Dr. Diwakar explains: “Initially, Nitish consolidated his Koeri–Kurmi base with upper-caste support through the BJP, and later drew in Bhumihars by offering power and positions. That’s why the saying emerged—Koeri-Kurmi ka taaj, aur Bhumihar ka raaj (Koeris and Kurmis hold the crown, Bhumihars the ruler).”

This meticulous caste engineering earned Nitish the title of “master of social engineering.” Manikant Thakur believes that the enduring support from EBCs is the main reason the BJP has never abandoned him.