According to Supriy Ranjan, “Broadly speaking, there are two kinds of Muslims in Seemanchal. The first are those whose roots go back anywhere from two years to a hundred years, and the second are those who migrated after Partition, whose language and culture carry a distinct Bengali touch. The latter are generally poorer, and it is among them that Owaisi’s support base is strongest. However, it’s difficult to predict how many seats he will actually win this time.”
Ranjan further explains, “In my view, Owaisi is laying the groundwork for a long-term political expansion in Seemanchal. He has already changed the region’s political economy — his candidates have begun to intervene even in local elections. Owaisi has also established several educational institutions, including ITIs and new madrasas. I would say that what the RSS does to expand its cadre base, Owaisi is doing something similar in Seemanchal. His aim seems to be to emerge as the region’s most powerful political force in the coming years — a development that, in the long run, could pose a serious challenge to the area’s communal harmony.”
The Bigger Picture
Tanzeel Asif, founder of Main Media and a keen observer of Seemanchal’s politics, also acknowledges that the Owaisi factor remains significant in the region. He notes that AIMIM remains a strong contender in the five seats it won in the previous election. However, he also believes that the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) could be in a stronger position this time compared to the last election.
Responding to a question about how many seats each party might win, Tanzeel says, “In Seemanchal’s 24 constituencies, some contests are straight fights, while others are triangular — involving AIMIM, the NDA, and the Mahagathbandhan. A few even appear to be four-cornered battles. While it’s hard to predict exact numbers, it’s quite possible that the Mahagathbandhan’s tally will increase beyond the seven seats it won last time.”
In this election, Congress is contesting 12 seats, RJD—nine, VIP—two, and CPI(ML)—one in Seemanchal. AIMIM has fielded 15 candidates in the region (25 across Bihar). The NDA, meanwhile, has BJP on 11, JD(U) on 10, and LJP (Ram Vilas) on three seats.