Of Perception and Exit Polls in Bengal

In politics, perception often eclipses objective reality. It is the process by which individuals internalise political stimuli to construct their own reality, and it has become a powerful instrument for managing behaviour and shaping media narratives. In India, parties have increasingly relied on perception to influence voter behaviour, controlling the narrative and building emotional branding to secure support. The ongoing Bengal elections provide a telling example: the Left- particularly those who are still nursing the old wounds of their electoral loss in 2011 and are desperate for a political survival in the state, has used perception strategically, shaping its campaigns to resonate with public sentiment and frame the contest in terms that strengthen its appeal. The Left’s apparently astute handling of the heinous R.G. Kar rape-murder incident in August 2024 illustrates how perception can be remoulded into political capital.

Besides upholding the movements against the crime as a broader struggle for justice, protection against sexual violence and a valid form of collective action against government inefficiency in stalling crimes against women, the Left also tapped into the growing disillusionment and fatigue after fifteen years of TMC rule. This approach not only resonated with the public mood but also sharpened the anti-incumbency narrative. This framing allowed them to transform a localised grievance into a wider narrative of resistance, positioning themselves as defenders of civic rights while simultaneously undermining the ruling party’s credibility. By casting the episode as evidence of a broader crisis in women’s safety, the Left constructed a narrative that inflicted lasting damage on the image of a city long regarded as one of the safest for women in India (For the fourth consecutive year the NCRB report of 2023 ranked Kolkata as one of the safest cities), especially when compared to many northern cities. The irony is striking: Bengal has traditionally been a state where women enjoy a level of freedom and security that allows them to participate in public life even late at night. Yet, instead of channelling the tragedy into a constructive debate on strengthening protections and demanding justice for the victim, the Left intellectuals and their networks politicised the issue to its maximum potential. In effect, the Left set the stage for a shift in discourse that the BJP was quick to seize, gaining the narrative momentum it had long been searching for ahead of the 2026 assembly elections. If the exit polls predicting a BJP victory or significant gains in West Bengal prove accurate, much of the onus will rest with the Left.

The rhetoric surrounding the Bengal elections bears striking resemblance to the political playbook once deployed by the Aam Aadmi Party, which emerged out of the India Against Corruption movement in 2011-12. Later, in 2013, AAP rode the wave of the anti- corruption’ movement, defeating three-time Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit and dismantling the Congress government. The party weaponised anti-corruption sentiment, which resonated strongly with a weary middle class in the wake of the CAG’s report on the “notional loss” of ₹1.76 lakh crore during the 2G spectrum allocation. Yet the symbolism of the ‘broom’ ultimately failed to sweep away corruption or usher in an Ombudsman, and the ambiguity around the “notional loss” left many unconvinced. Over time, AAP itself became mired in charges of inefficiency and corruption, giving the BJP the opening for a clean sweep in the 2025 Delhi elections.

The Left in West Bengal appears to be following a similar trajectory. By constructing a flawed perception around women’s safety and politicising incidents to remain relevant, as is expected from most political parties in any democracy, it risks repeating AAP’s missteps. In seeking to challenge the ruling party and position itself as an alternative force in the state, the Left may unwittingly be paving the way for the BJP’s rise, a reminder of how perception politics sway electoral outcomes.

The prospect of the BJP coming to power in Bengal carries implications that extend beyond state politics. It raises concerns about a fundamental shift in the very idea of India as a union of states. The RSS, with its own vision of the nation, has long promoted a model that leaves little room for diversity and multicultural identity, particularly linguistic diversity, which has been one of India’s defining strengths. Over the past twelve years of BJP rule at the Centre, these centralising and homogenising tendencies have become increasingly visible in both political and cultural agenda. The mode of governance in BJP-ruled states, where chief ministers often function as extensions of the central command in Delhi, signals a move toward uniformity and collapse of the federal structure of India. Such a path leaves little space for the pluralism and syncretism that underpin Bengali asmita, the cultural pride and identity that thrives on diversity. For Bengal, this raises the question of whether its unique ethos can withstand the pressures of a homogenising national vision.

The intensity with which the Left in Bengal has pursued its anti-TMC campaign reveals a striking contradiction between its stated principles and its political practice. In fact, the last party congress of the CPI (M) had passed a resolution calling for Left unity and underscored the significance of forging alliances with democratic and secular forces against the communal forces. Yet, rather than taking the lead in consolidating progressive forces, it has focused on constructing “mental maps” in the public imagination that vilify the TMC for all its wrongdoings, instead of recognising the ‘greater enemy’ in the context of an unprecedented state election. In doing so, it neglected presenting a realistic picture of what a BJP-led Bengal might entail. This approach suggests complicity, whether deliberate or inadvertent, in advancing the interests of the BJP. By politicising discontent without offering a constructive alternative, the Left enabled the very centralising tendencies and constitutional violations associated with the BJP-led government at the Centre. The result is a campaign that compromises its own credibility while dangerously close to reshaping Bengal’s political landscape in ways that run counter to the pluralist values it claims to defend.

At several points in Bengal’s political history, it has been the ‘naysayer’ posture and smugness of the Left that has arguably hurt the state more than the openly communal forces. If the exit poll predictions prove correct, the consequences will be instructive. Left-oriented students, faculty, and intellectuals who ‘hyphenated’ TMC with BJP will be confronted with the reality of what that equivalence truly means. Spaces like Jadavpur University, long considered bastions of Left thought, may find themselves “educated” in a different sense, as will others who dismissed the distinction. While the BJP’s rise is undoubtedly aided by its use of power, money, and organizational machinery, the so-called Left must also share responsibility for this historic miscalculation. Official records may not reflect it, but their role in shaping distorted perceptions and weakening progressive unity will be central to such an outcome.

Bengal’s elections are not just about party fortunes. They are about the politics of perception, how narratives are constructed, how they resonate, and how they can reshape the destiny of a state. It is also a wake-up call for the Left to rise above short-term vision and learn to walk the talk. With national ramifications which has the potential to hasten the changing political, social and economic contexts for one-sixth of the humanity, the Left’s mistakes in Bengal may well serve as a cautionary tale of how perception, when miscalculated, can boomerang and alter the course of history.

Devjani teaches at the Department of English, Miranda House, University of Delhi.

(views expressed are personal)