How Does SIR Impact Bengal’s Muslim-Majority Constituencies?

The demographic composition of Jangipur constituency in Murshidabad district has changed overnight. This Muslim-majority constituency has now become Hindu-majority, according to local politicians tracking the demographic nature of changes in the voter list. 

Jangipur is one of the 152 assembly constituencies going to the polls in the first phase of the 2026 assembly election, in which Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is seeking her fourth straight term. 

Her principal challenger is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is seemingly enthused by the high rate of deletion of Muslim voters from the state’s electorate.  

During the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voter roll, as many as 36,581 voters were struck off Jangipur’s roll for having what the Election Commission of India (ECI) called ‘logical discrepancies’. About 32,500 of them are Muslims. 

Prior to the SIR process, the Hindu-Muslim demographic ratio in Jangipur’s electorate stood at 46:54. The electorate comprised approximately 138,000 Muslim voters and around 117,000 Hindus. Following the heavy deletions, the Hindu-Muslim ratio in the voter list has nearly inverted; it now stands at 52% Hindu and 48% Musllim.

In the 2021 elections, Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) secured a nearly undivided share of the Muslim votes. They won this seat by a margin of 92,000 votes. 

However, during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Muslims remained sharply split between the TMC and the Congress, while the Hindu vote consolidated firmly behind the BJP. The BJP is estimated to have got the support of two-thirds of the Hindus’ votes. Consequently, the BJP surged ahead in this constituency by a margin of 3,300 votes. 

Now, following these deletions, BJP stands at a more advantageous situation. Local leaders say they are “highly hopeful” of wresting this seat from the TMC.  

Official data regarding the religious demographic profile of individual Assembly constituencies is not publicly available. However, it is possible to derive estimates of their demographic composition by utilising data from the specific blocks, towns, or panchayats that comprise these constituencies. Besides, nearly all political parties compile such data by analyzing booth-level voter lists.

Muslims make up 27% of the state’s population, as per the census 2011. They form the majority in the districts of Murshidabad (67%), Malda (51%) and Uttar Dinajpur (50%).  Of the 27.16 lakh names excluded during the adjudication phase due to ‘logical discrepancies’, about 17 lakh are Muslims. 

Of the 294 Legislative Assembly seats in Bengal, Muslims constitute the majority in 41. Of the 27.16 lakh excluded names, 8.43 lakh—or 31%—are from 41 constituencies. In most of these seats, Muslims account for approximately 90% of the individuals excluded during the adjudication process, according to data collated by political parties accessed by Outlook. 

In the 2021 Assembly elections, the TMC won 40 of these seats, Bhangar in southern Bengal being the sole exception. In an effort to thwart the BJP, Muslims voted overwhelmingly in favor of the TMC. However, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress party took the lead in 9 of these constituencies, while the Left Front led in one, and the BJP led in Jangipur. 

This year, the contest is bipolar in some seats, while in others, it is triangular or quadrangular.

The deletion pattern is not uniform across the board. Among these 41 constituencies, the number of deleted voters is fewer than 10,000 in 13. Cumulatively, 69,563 names were excluded from these seats. These changes are unlikely to impact the electoral outcomes there, as the winning margins were quite high. 

The remaining 774,000 exclusions occurred across the other 28 constituencies—averaging approximately 27,500 exclusions per seat. 

In 11 of these seats, the number of exclusions ranged from 10,000 to 20,000; in 6 seats, it ranged from 20,000 to 30,000; and in 7 seats, between 30,000 and 40,000 names were excluded. In the remaining four constituencies, the number of exclusions was even higher.

Among the Muslim-majority Assembly constituencies, Murshidabad district accounts for the highest number of seats. Out of the district's 22 seats, Muslims constitute the majority in 17.

Lalgola is another seat in Murshidabad. The final roll released in February had 239,000 voters. The Muslim-Hindu ratio stood at 77:23. However, 55,000 names were subsequently struck off—approximately 52,000 of whom were Muslims—due to ‘logical discrepancies’. As a result, the total voter count has dropped to 184,000. The Hindu-Muslim ratio has shifted from 23:77 to 28:72. 

In Bhagabangola, 47,493 names have been struck off the list; of these, only 3,000 are Hindus. In Raghunathganj, 46,100 names were excluded, 43,000 of whom were Muslims. In Suti, of the 38,000 names removed from the rolls here, more than 34,000 are Muslim. 

What are the political implications of the exclusion of a massive number of voters—the vast majority of whom are Muslim—from certain constituencies due to the SIR process?

There have been many reasons over the past five years for Muslims to be upset with the TMC. However, heavy deletion can prompt Muslims in several seats to go for a 2021-like polarisation in favour of TMC just to ensure the BJP does not win,” says Abdul Matin, a political scientist at Kolkata’s Jadavpur University. 

Of these 41 seats, the Muslim population in Sujapur, Lalgola Bhagabangola, Domkal, Raninagar, Shamserganj, Raghunathganj, Hariharpara, Goalpokhar, Maltipur, and Jalangi stands at approximately 70% or higher. 

Here the BJP stands little chance even in case of  an intense split in votes between the Congress and the Trinamool—similar to the scenario in 2024. At most, some of these seats might shift from the TMC to the Congress.

However, in Uttar Dinajpur, Malda, and Murshidabad, there are eight constituencies that the TMC may succeed in retaining only if they manage to secure the large majority of Muslims’ support—as it did in 2021. If Muslims’ support splits sharply—as observed in 2024—the BJP’s victory cannot be ruled out.

"In a three-way contest, one typically requires a minimum of 33% of the votes to secure a victory. However, in a fiercely contested four-way battle, one can potentially win with as little as 28–29% of the vote," observed a veteran legislator from Murshidabad.

In Farakka, Muslims constitute approximately 67% of the population. Here, too, 34,000 of the 38,000 deleted voters are Muslims. Consequently, the proportion of Hindu voters within the total electorate has now risen to nearly 40%.

Trends from previous elections indicate that, in these constituencies, the BJP's vote share remained largely consistent between the 2021 Assembly elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. A significant section of the Muslim electorate has primarily oscillated between the TMC and the Congress.  

In the Malda district, Muslims constitute the majority in six constituencies. Of them, the BJP stands little chance to electorally benefit in Chanchal, Sujapur, Malatipur and Harishchandrapur. 

However, in the remaining two constituencies, the BJP could potentially emerge as a formidable third force. In Mothabari, where Muslims make up 63% of the population, 37,255 names have been removed from the roll; 35,500 of these belong to Muslims. Ratua, with a similar demographic composition, has 35,573 names deleted; 34,000 of them are Muslims. 

In Uttar Dinajpur district, Muslims constitute the majority population in Islampur, Chakulia, Chopra, and Goalpokhar seats. In Chopra, the Hindu share of the electorate has risen from 40% to 43%. In Islampur, the Hindu share of the electorate has increased from 43% to 45%. 

Intense multiple polar contests in these seats can give the BJP a chance, considering that the Congress and the Left hold some influence on the Muslims in this district. However, in the Muslim-majority seats in southern Bengal, the contest is mostly bipolar between the TMC and the BJP, as the Left and the Congress' presence in these seats is weak. 

In a bipolar contest, the TMC has the obvious advantage in such seats.