Asif Ali Zardari, the co-chairperson of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP),who has now become increasingly controversial in Pakistan for his frequentU-Turns in local politics, has made yet another U-Turn--this time incounter-terrorism.
After having launched ground and air action against leaders and members of theTaliban and Al Qaeda operating against the NATO forces in Afghanistan fromsanctuaries in the Bajaur Agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas(FATA) a month ago and after having intensified the already on-going operationsagainst the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi ( TNSM) in the Swat Valley ofthe North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), he has suddenly advised the governmentof Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani to suspend the operations during the holyRamazan fasting period starting from August 31, 2008.
The government's decision to suspend the operations was announced on August 30by Rehman Mallik, the Adviser on Internal Security, who is a close confidante ofZardari. He clarified that the suspension did not amount to a ceasefire andadded that the security forces would reserve the right to retaliate if attackedby the jihadi terrorists. The suspension would not involve the withdrawal of thesecurity forces from the positions held by them as on August 31.
Mallik said the decision was taken to enable a large number of internallydisplaced tribals, who had run away from their villages due to the operations,to go back to their villages and join their families for the Ramadan. Howeverfrom statements welcoming the suspension by leaders such as Maulana FazlurRahman, the Amir of the Jamiat-ul-Ulema Islam (JUI) Pakistan, which is a memberof the ruling coalition, it is clear that the suspension was ordered by Zardariin order to assure himself of the support of the Pahtun members of the Nationaland provincial Assemblies for election as the President of Pakistan on September6.
Fazlur Rahman has already claimed while talking to the local media that thesuspension of the operations in the Bajaur Agency and in the Swat Valley andpermission to re-open the madrasa for boys and to re-build the madrasa for girlsattached to the Lal Masjid in Islamabad were among the conditions imposed by hisparty for supporting the election of Zardari as the President.
While Rehman Mallik did not say anything about the Lal Masjid , other sourceshave reported that the government has already permitted the madrasa for boys tore-open and that for girls to be re-built. These sources have also reported thatZardari has also agreed to withdraw all cases under the Anti-Terrorism Act andother laws registered against Abdul Aziz, a cleric of the Masjid, and hisassociates after they were arrested by the Army following its commando action inthe Masjid from July 10 to 13, 2007. During the commando action, the boys'madrasa, which is located outside the madrasa campus, was closed down and thegirls' madrasa, which was located inside the campus, was destroyed by thecommandoes.
The decision to suspend the operations in the Bajaur Agency and the Swat Valleycame hardly five days after a top secret meeting (August 26) between AdmiralMike Mullen, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US, and Gen. Ashfaq PervezKiyani, Pakistan's Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), held on board an US AircraftCarrier to discuss measures to strengthen mutual co-operation against theTaliban and Al Qaeda and to prevent the leakage to these terrorist organisationsof information shared by the US with the Pakistan Army.
While the ground operations in the Swat Valley were continuing with varyingintensity, those in the Bajaur Agency were already in a state of suspensionfollowing severe casualties sustained by the Frontier Corps and the capture ofover 30 of their personnel by the Taliban. However, the air strikes werecontinuing. The suspension announced by Malik means relief to the Taliban and AlQaeda from fear of air strikes, which were hampering their cross-borderterrorism into Afghanistan. This could result in an escalation of their attackson the US and other NATO forces in Afghan territory during the period ofRamadan, when jihadi terrorists tend to step up their attacks. Martyrdom attacksduring this period are considered by them as doubly holy.
The TNSM, which is a constituent unit of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP),has already announced that it will not observe any cease-fire during the fastingperiod till its demands for the withdrawal of the Army from the Swat Valley, therelease of all its members arrested or captured by the security forces and theintroduction of the Sharia in the Valley are accepted and implemented by thegovernment. The only concession made by the Taliban is to release some membersof the security forces captured by them as a mark of goodwill during the Ramadanperiod to their families.
The Taliban sees the suspension as yet another trick by Zardari and expects thathe will call it off after getting elected in order to re-assure the US thatthere will be no changes in Pakistan's co-operation with the US in itsoperations against Al Qaeda and the Taliban. The US forces in Afghanistan, whichperiodically make unmanned Predator strikes on suspected terrorist hide-outs inPakistan, are not observing any suspension of their strikes during the holyperiod.
Advertisement
B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. ofIndia, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai.
