The End Of Warfare

Fallujah per se, on the face of it, is not a strategic or a militarilysignificant target. It however represents the "great challenge" to theUS/UK's military occupation of Sovereign Iraq since April 2003.

In the first siege of Fallujah in April 2004, the Iraqi Resistance inflicteda severe defeat on the Americans. In April 2004, while over 1,200 Iraqis werekilled, blown up, burnt or shot alive by the Americans -- two thirds of themcivilians, mostly women and children -- while 2,000-pound bombs were falling onthe the city, AC-130 Spectre gunships were demolishing entire city blocks inless than a minute and of course silence of the plop as Iraqis targeted by marine snipers hit the ground, nonetheless the operative portion remains:theMarines were beaten back in no uncertain terms. This was followed by a "truce".

The truce did not hold for very long.

This humiliation of the American military was spun as a "strategicretreat" but the desire to get rid of the "weeping sore that Fallujah was"has been on top of the US agenda since then. Fallujah represented a "stellaract of defiance" one that allowed the resistance to "actually secure andcontrol a city, and to beat off the US military"

The second formal large scale assault on Fallujah (Nov./Dec 2004) pittedimages of the world's most powerful military force against fighters in tennisshoes, wielding homemade rocket launchers. There were three declared tacticalobjectives. The first was to either kill or capture the Jordanian born"terrorist" "Abu Musab al-Zarqawi" (if indeed he exists) and to"battle and destroy some 4000 to 5000 suspected fighters". The Americansalso vowed to "liberate" the residents of Fallujah from "criminalelements" and to "secure Fallujah" for the January elections.Lastly, it appears an additional declared tactical/political objective of theAmerican Military's task was to engage in a "fight of good versus evil".Additionally it appears (presumably per their intelligence reports) that themission also was to "destroy" "Satan" since it appears that "he livesin Fallujah"

On the face of it, it appears as if none of these tactical/militaryobjectives have been met, including, it appears, the desire to presumably meetMr Satan, resident of Fallujah.

As for the other very laudable and rationally quantifiable objectivesincluding that of stuffing democracy into a city by simply obliterating it, allof these seem to be a bit astray.

48 hours into the offensive, the official narratives were filled with reportsthat Zarqawi (if indeed such a entity exists) may have "slippedoutside" of their perimeter defenses.

This of course left Mr "Satan" still in residence together with the restof the unfortunate inhabitants of the "militant stronghold". The city of300,000 residents had perhaps an estimated 40,000 civilians left per the USmilitary. Since this estimated number included 5000 resident "militants",one can presume that the rest (per the US military) would be civilians.

The actual civilian count remaining in the city on the 8th of November isaround around 60,000 to as much as 100,000 since males between the ages 16 and60 were disbarred by the US military from leaving the city.

One can also infer the most vulnerable--the poor, the old, the women,children and the sick--continued to reside in their city in significant numbers-- of the order of 40,000+

With the "target softening" bombing raids that killed a few hundredcivilians in the first week of November, the first formal target of the USmilitary armored assault was doctors and the nurses. These were the first to beeliminated as these were "legitimate military target" and since "insurgents"were "forcing the doctors there to release propaganda and false information".

The assault has left as many as 10,000 civilian dead--perhaps much much more. The Red Cross/Red Crescent estimate was upwards of 6000 as of November 25th.Till date no formal Red Cross/Red Crescent operation has been allowed in thecity.

What the images of Phantom Fury did not convey is thatthis assault is the largest concentration of heavy armor in one place, sincethe fall of Berlin. This was the first time since World War II that "anAmerican armored task force" has been turned "loose in a city with norestrictions".

More to the point, the force of as much as 20,000 soldiers (12,000 to 17,000American/coalition soldiers, about 2000 odd Iraqi "National guards" andperhaps 1000 odd peshmergas) were supported by an estimated 1100 to asmuch as 2000 armored vehicles and tanks. Air support was largely carrier basedout of the gulf and B-52's from bases outside of Iraq.

The armor alone represents the heaviest ever concentration of armor since thefall of Berlin (1945) in one place against a single military objective.

Phantom Fury was officially underway on the 8th of November and declared tobe a sweeping victory on or about the 15th of November.

Thereafter the military communiqués and the press reports have been limitedto occasional deaths in the "Anbar province". That all of Fallujah isunder "coalition" control since then i.e on or about November 15th 2004.Since then detailed stories on Fallujah in the official narrative have stoppedcompletely or refer to action/discoveries between the 8th and the 19th ofNovember 04.

There is no evidence of what has transpired save intermittent but very veryregular losses attributed to "pockets of resistance" in the "AnbarProvince". And, yes, reportage on the brand new movie on Fallujah starringHarrison Ford.

Now for a moment, consider the substantive anomalies in the officialdiscourse. Consider one such example- Satellite Imagery of Fallujah (block byblock including "after action") available to the media till the 15th ofNovember and carried in graphic detail day by day from the 8th of Nov. throughthe 15th stopped abruptly. There are no explanations.

Courtesy: globalsecurity.org

There are no satellite pictures of Fallujah available in the public domainafter November 15th.

Or consider that the Red Cross/Red crescent has not been allowed to enter thecity in any substantive manner. Today is the 20th of Dec and it has still notbeen allowed.

Or consider another break in the regular stream of consciousness. No reporterhas set foot in the city or after the 22nd of November.

A "Great Victory" like this and no footage?

These anomalies are noteworthy. Therefore it is very unclear whether this isindeed the case or, as a matter of fact, the converse is.

Fallujah has not been taken. Not only has Fallujah not been taken, but thecoalition forces have staged several retreats and are now confined largely tothe outside of the city.

The Iraqi resistance is currently in control of most of the city and haveforced back at least three of the largest armored assaults in recent history.

In fact, one can make a claim that this was the largest series of armoredassault ever. The objective is 16 sq km and if one were to normalise over timeand term for incremental intensity in firepower that this represents, then theseare historically unprecedented. Now if these were not only repulsed, butperhaps defeated, it leads to something that ought to be examined morecarefully.

Despite being flattened (perhaps about 12,000 to as much as 20,000 homes outof an estimated 50,000 razed) by the application of, as US Army Gen. JohnAbizaid put it, "more military power per square inch than anybody else onearth".

Curiously, the US general then very very strangely goes on to add: "Ifyou ever even contemplate our nuclear capability, it should give everybody theclear understanding that there is no power that can match the United Statesmilitarily."

Oh. Let me contemplate the nuclear capability of the US. Never mind. It is abore.

So?

The General also said, when talking about generating "more military powerper square inch than anybody else on earth".that "every one knowsit". Oh. The words of the General--the mightiest general of themall--Commander Centom, do not appear to have been heard. At least, the Iraqiresistance has not heard them.

The mightiest military machine ever in world history with the mightiestfirepower the world has ever seen has been mightily trying to capture Fallujah.But no luck so far.

Instead the Americans faced an opposition that broke the back of the assault.Instead of "breaking bone by bone" and crushing "the backbone of theinsurgents", it seems to appear that the same has been done unto them asthey were planning to do unto the resistance.

At the peak of the assault, the Americans held no more than 35-40% ofFallujah (largely the north on or around the 18th of November) Thereafter, theyappear to have been steadily repulsed and in fact the coalition forces currentlyhave been repulsed to where they were on November 13th or thereabouts and to theoutskirts of Fallujah.

Now consider the fate of the rest of the occupation. Itis in tatters. The mightiest military in the world cannot control an 8 km stretchof road, perhaps the single most important road in all of Iraq – the AirportRoad from the center of Baghdad to the airport. The purported troopconcentration is 120 soldiers per km of a open road and despite that theAustralian defence minister could not even make it to the green zone and simplyflew back from the airport.

Unlike Vietnam, where the American were largely in control of the cities formost parts (save Tet, and even there complete control was not lost), the US/UKgarrisons are isolated in the middle of a hostile population.

They cannot even traverse a km or two out of the 'green zone". Their supplyconvoys have come to a standstill over the last month and a salvage operation ofre-supplying by air has started over the last 10-12 days. Air supplies arelimited and there is no reason to believe that these can be significant (a maxof 400 tonnes a day, slated to rise to 1600 tonnes a day against an estimatedminimum 20,000 odd tonnes needed daily to keep a force of 160,000+ fed, watered,armored and resupplied).

The 300 mile long supply line is toast. Well, at least any thing dark,metallic, armored or otherwise. (4000 pounds of armor on a humvee that can carrya max load of 5000 pounds) Can it move? And even that is not helpful – in thewords of the great military strategist, Rumsfeld, circa Dec 04, even tanks blowup. Why bother at all?

Against the most heavily armed opponent in the history of War, Fallujah hasstill not let itself be "taken" to date (As of 20th Dec, 2004). Falluah andindeed the rest of Iraq post April 2003, heralds "supersymmetrical" warfareand the end of conventional warfare. This represents a turning point in militaryaffairs – the end of warfare--as practiced by the Americans i.e theapplication of overwhelming force to obtain a victory.

If this is indeed correct (and there is no reason to consider any otheralternative) then the Iraqi Resistance's repulsing the assault and indeed theforcing back of the American positions represents not only a turning point inthe American occupation of Sovereign Iraq but in fact a turning point in warfareitself.

In fact, it would certainly be one of the greatest military victories inhistory.

Over the last 30 years since Vietnam, the normative amount of explosive powerand force multipliers available to the Americans and their opponents (comparedto say the North Koreans in the 50's, the NVA in the 60s) has normalised and infact are comparable if one were to factor in the context in which the firepoweris used and deployed.

The 'normalisation" of firepower on a level playing field- In this case,Fallujah, or for that matter the rest of Iraq, is noteworthy.

Consider one such example. A RPG 7 can travel up to300/700/950 meters. At 300 meters, even a basic warhead can penetrate 330 mm ofsteel armor. Yes, 33 cms, 13 inches--that is a lot of steel. The projectilewould cost perhaps $30-40. Conservatively, a squad of 3 armed with RPG-7s havemore than a fighting chance against a M1 Abrams. In close urban quarters, theadvantage that the tank had (in say open ground in a conventional war) iscompletely lost.

The cost/personnel advantage is noteworthy. With minimal or no training, justabout any one can operate a RPG. A squad of say 3 would cost perhaps no morethan $5000 to equip. Against this, the M1 Abrams ("the mightiest tank",70 odd tonnes of steel, a few million a pop).

Now consider the mightiest Gun in the West against the rookie squad of three.Throw in a street. Add cover (even rubble will do, in fact quite nicely, thankyou)

Even odds?

Now consider for a moment. Consider a force of say a few thousand men -- thebest in the business and certainly the bravest men on the face of thisplanet--say no more than 3000, anything more and it would be one sided. 3000against 12,000 to 20,000 sounds about right.

Now add ingenuity, intelligence and passion and a good reason to be very veryangry. Throw in a just cause. In fact, the "most just cause of all".

Now consider that these are equipped with only say RPG 7s as well as say RPG9s, a few dozen Strellas, a few thousand modified versions of the S5K rocket,basic antiaircraft guns, a few hundred tonnes of say c4/semtex (it is quitecheap), a few thousand fin stabilised rockets (52 mm to 152 mm), basic artilleryand mortar (say 60mm, 82mm, and 120mm shells), a few SAMs (say SAM7 and SAM 9),a few thousand grad rockets, faithful ole Kalasnikovs, a few hundred sniperrifles with say .50 mm explosive ammo. It may also be possible that few Samudand Abgail missiles (range of 100 km) are available.These are not very largemissiles. Add a few more, nothing fancy again--say, the Tariq and Katyusha, veryvery basic indeed).

There is more, but you get the idea. Not very state of the art weapons, farfrom it. But very very functional. Now, consider the sheer amount of counteroffensive power these represent

Add to that pre-prepared defensive positions, not very fancy for sure butvery functional and very very functional minefields with a variety of triggers.Throw in, the "most ingenious" booby traps ever.

Add the Iraqi resistance--the bravest of the brave--operating these. Wellnow, it is state of the art. The State of the Art of Urban Warfare.

Oh yes, And yes, how can I forget toys. Well, one needs to buy those since"remote controls from toys" (Well at least as per the American Military) area primary trigger in IEDs. So we add a few 10s of dollars per toy car and remotekit, say from your local K-mart.K-mart?. Turns out that an army cannot beequipped from K-mart, to quote the great military tactician Rumsfeld once again,circa early Dec 0). Also turns out Centcom claims that they cannot jam these(circa Dec 04,)

It does appear that we have a problem here. Toy remotes. Rather sad, wouldyou not say? Coming from the second in command of the Mightiest Super powers'mightiest command. Beam me up, Scotty.

Now pit against them a "superpower" that has already spent 150 billion ofdeclining currency for sure but buys plenty still. Do not forget to add 450billion recurring every year. (Hey it can buy anything but armor). Add another100 billion on the cards (Jan 04).

But this does not help.

Short of using a neutron or a nuclear bomb (theAmericans did use chemical weapons in Fallujah), despite all efforts, what theAmericans have been able to achieve is relatively little, if anything atall, even in the best case estimates of the official narrative.

45 days and going on and on and on and on.

Oh, oh, but, but, but we took Baghdad in 21 days.

45 days for 16 sq kms.....

The opposing American army in this case has not been able to be actually "take"them out. Never mind control or physically occupying 16 sq kms.

In fact, even a neutron bomb would not be militarily significant. You need to"take" it and keep it and keep on keeping it and keep on and on and on....

And they have not. They will not. They cannot

The limits of raw firepower have been reached and no matter what (2000 poundbombs to container cluster bombs to the new "large Abrams" tank. Oh well, ifnot a RPG7, a RPG9 or two will do the trick, thank you), the American militaryobjective is no longer possible.

Shoulder-held surface to air weapons limit the role of armored copters. Infact there are several 'copter graveyards in and around Fallujah. Big ones. Someof them are quite near the tank killing fields. Yes, several hundred armoredvehicles resting, not quite in peace but hey...

Close air support is not feasible on account of the proximity of "friendlies".Savage bombing without limits does not help.

The war in the former Yugoslavia is a case in point. Despite 72 days of nonstop bombing, it is now (post facto) a conceded position that the opposing sidelost no more than 5-10% of their military hardware. (The loss was political, butthat is another story.)

Now consider an entirely different narrative. Of thethe land between the two rivers, of your ancestors and my ancestors, of thefountainheads of civilisation, of Sumer, Ur, Mesopotamia, of Lions, of Hummurabi,of Salah al Din Yusuf Ibn Ayyub and much much more.

And yes, a place. Called Fallujah. But, say, about 84 years ago

And now add to the narrative, parts of the present: a unilaterally disarmedopponent (remember the tizzy circa late march 03 about night vision equipment?Night vision? Never mind state of the art SAMs and Kornets. The sanctions? Ohwhat were they?

Now add 25 million men, women and children – the richest denizens on thisplanet (Yes the richest. In every sense. As the very inheritors of civilisationit self. Or in a more mundane sense with 300 billion+ barrels of oil, an averageIraqi's garbage would be reconstructing the streets of Manhattan in a fairerworld (the Americans have in contrast 22.5 billion barrels left), and, yes, thebravest. And the most suffering on the face of this planet

Add to that the Story of Fallujah (circa late 2004). Then perhaps you willnot be so astonished to hear what appear to be strange words to your ears.