The Bluff In Bihar

Not too many people seem to realise or remember that 61 per cent of the voters in Bihar cast their votes against the NDA in the last Assembly election in 2010. While the NDA secured 206 of the 243 seats in the Assembly, the combined vote share of the Janata Dal (U) and the BJP was just 39 per cent.

While the three erstwhile UPA constituents (Congress, LJP and RJD) contested the election separately, they together too could secure only 33 per cent of the votes. But what is more remarkable is the fact that 28 per cent of the remaining voters opted for neither NDA nor for these three parties. And that is what makes the political situation in the state so volatile and unpredictable. The “landslide” victory by the NDA obscured the somewhat strange voting pattern, which does not appear to have been examined closely. But it is nevertheless extraordinary that such a large percentage of voters (28 per cent) ended up voting for independent candidates, the SP, BSP and the various Left parties. 

The circumstances in which this behaviour of the voters need to be examined is also noteworthy. The NDA government in 2010 had just completed its first term in office. Nitish Kumar had emerged as the undisputed leader and caught the imagination of the people by being tough against lawlessness and corruption. The state government had marshalled its resources better and made a visible difference to the infrastructure. Nearly 3,00,000 vacancies of teachers were filled up. Steps were taken to make hospitals and health centres functional. Women were allowed 50 per cent reservation in panchayats and welfare measures slowed down dropouts from schools. In short, the government was on a roll and nobody doubted a second term for the NDA. But it surely should have received a much higher share of the votes more than the just three and odd per cent more than it had received in 2005?

While political pundits seem to have paid scant attention to the vote share, NDA constituents themselves would have been acutely aware of the slippery ground conditions. With expectations from the government rising, and as government programmes unravel due to poor execution, the NDA government is increasingly facing opposition and the mood of the electorate, barring government servants, appears to be very different from what it was in 2010.

That could be one reason why both JD (U) and the BJP are desperate for a fresh issue to galvanise people. While Nitish Kumar apparently believes that opposing Modi would give him political dividend, the BJP, even in Bihar, believes Modi would be able to energise the party and more than neutralize the effects of a divorce with JD(U).

Politicians rarely speak in public without a purpose. So when on Sunday Nitish Kumar launched his sharpest and a thinly veiled attack on Narendra Modi, it was clearly a deliberate provocation. But was it thought through ?

On the face of it, even Nitish Kumar does not appear certain if he has got the timing right. Why else would he give BJP time till this year-end to find out a more acceptable and ‘secular’ prime ministerial face than Modi for the next general election ?

What he said on Sunday is what he had stated to The Economic Times in August last year, over eight months ago. The BJP had then said that differences between allies were natural and they would be sorted out within the alliance. Since then Narendra Modi has been inducted into the BJP Parliamentary Board and the Central Campaign Committee and the Gujarat Chief Minister has publicly declared that he was under pressure to pay off his debt to the country, now that he has paid off his debt to Gujarat.

But there has been, clearly, no formal discussion in the NDA so far even as the Bihar Chief Minister has been meeting BJP leaders and the BJP President. However, it appears unlikely that the issue would be left unspoken in these meetings. It is safe to conclude that both the allies have been discussing their public postures for some time, are in agreement over the strategy and are going through what is essentially a charade.

Once the parties formally separate, it would pave the way for Narendra Modi to campaign in Bihar for the BJP. Having opposed Modi for so long and after keeping him away from campaigning in the state, it is impossible for Nitish Kumar to allow it. So, a divorce is necessary to get Modi to campaign for the BJP in the state.

Modi then would either be instrumental in BJP improving its tally of 12 Lok Sabha seats from Bihar at the cost of JD (U), which currently has 20 of the 40 seats in the state; or he would cause a massive polarization of minority votes in favour of JD(U), which would then hope to bag five to ten more seats. In either case, the two allies can come together after the election, specially if the NDA fails to get a majority on its own and is forced to drop Modi in favour of a less contentious figure for the PM’s chair.

Both JD(U) and the BJP will be hoping that the script will not deviate from this plan. But will the electorate be naïve or cynical enough to fall for it ? That is the million rupee question for which there is no easy answer yet.