That Wake-Up Smell Of Coffee

WASHINGTON

India can’t count on American support at the United Nations. It is clearthat the United States is the latest member of the "Coffee Club" run by itskey ally Pakistan and frequented by its rival China. On the eve of PrimeMinister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Washington, the Bush Administration hasmade a strident statement saying it opposes expansion of the Security Councilbecause it is the wrong move at the wrong time.

The gloves are off and it doesn’t look pretty. Sadly, the BushAdministration’s blow will alienate public opinion in India, a country where asurprising majority supports this administration. In a world whereanti-Americanism is on the rise, Indians have found reason to support Bush’sagenda mainly because they saw he was willing to defy conventional wisdom. Butby slamming the G-4 resolution (did he know about it?), he has gone back intothe box.

If he can’t move forward on an issue with little political cost, what canIndia expect in areas that require real wrestling and even bureaucraticshoot-outs. How will he push nuclear cooperation with India? Or anything thatrequires a change in US policy? Singh and Bush have to convert words into actionand action into results.

But not the kind of action seen at the United Nations.

Not only did the US oppose the G-4 resolution, it advised others to voteagainst it. This "opposition plus" policy is surely different from thecomforting words of Nick Burns, undersecretary of state for political affairs,who laboriously walked around the issue, making optimistic noises. So far thiscolumnist read progress in the gradual evolution in the American position, fromzero to one with Condoleezza Rice saying in New Delhi earlier this year thatIndia had to be accommodated in international organizations. Then Burns revealedthe US was amenable to adding one or maybe two permanent members to the SecurityCouncil apart from Japan. He listed the criteria for admission and the criteriaseemed to fit India.

But then came the July 12 US statement as delivered by Shirin Tahir-Kheli, aspecial adviser to Rice on UN reforms. Tahir-Kheli seemed to speak with bothends of her mouth – the US supports expansion but not now, the US considersthe G-4 its "friends" but will do everything to oppose their frameworkresolution, the US is against the proposed ideas but will offer no alternateresolution. Tahir-Kheli, a Pakistani American who has worked for both Bushsenior and the current president, categorically declared that no resolution onexpansion should be voted upon at this time because it would be divisive,require amending the UN Charter and decrease the efficiency of the SecurityCouncil. In other words, it is our way or the highway.

Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran may say he is "not disappointed" becausethe "US position has been well known for some time," but he is, as are manyIndians, by this gratuitous slap. The Bush Administration has shown littleflexibility on the issue. It is clear it will not spend political capital tohelp India’s case. In fact, it has joined the ranks of China and Pakistan –so far the two loudest opponents of reform – to actively block the process andkill the momentum. The reasons given are improbable and incomprehensible. Thatthey need more time -- if 12 years of debate on the issue is not enough, whatis? That they want consensus – an impossible demand on a family of 191nations. That they want an efficient Security Council – efficiency comes whendecisions are supported by a larger number of countries. That reforms must beacceptable to the current permanent members – meaning they must serve theirinterests and not the wider interests.

Manmohan Singh must decide how he will respond to the American manoeuvre ashe flies to the US this weekend. He has a lot to think about before he meets andnegotiates with Bush. The welcome mat in Washington just shrank. If he goes backwith feel-good announcements which require little/no give on the American side,this whole Indo-US dance will start to feel just that. A dance.