Is Bin Laden Dying Again?

Is Osama bin Laden dying again?

That is the headline under which many skeptic online journals of the worldhave carried a story of the Time magazine that some CIA analysts believethat  bin Laden is finally in his death bed due to a progressivedeterioration of his kidneys. How did they come to this conclusion? On the basisof source reports regarding the kind of medicines he is taking. It is said thatthese medicines can help him for some time, but cannot prevent his death. Ifthis report is to be believed, the count-down for his death has already started.At the same time, the magazine has added in its report that other CIA officialsdeny that any such report had been prepared in the CIA.

This report reminds one of a report carried by a French regional newspaper onSeptember 23, 2006,  that according to the French intelligence, bin Ladenhad died after a severe attack of typhoid. According to the newspaper, theFrench intelligence got the information of bin Laden's death from its Saudicounterpart. Some weeks later, to the consternation of everybody, bin Laden cameout with new audio messages, which tended to prove that he was definitely alive,though he may not be quite that kicking.

His earlier imminent death was reported by the CNN on October 26, 2002, whenit carried the following report:

"- The editor-in-chief of a London-based Arab news magazine said apurported will it published Saturday was written late last year by Osama binLaden, and shows "he's dying or he's going to die soon." U.S.intelligence officials say they have the purported will, but are not able to sayif it is genuine. CNN has not been able to verify that the document is binLaden's will.

"He did write the will as someone saying good-bye," HaniNakshabandi of the Arab news magazine Al Majalla told CNN. He said one of themagazine's reporters obtained the four-page document, said to be signed by theleader of the al Qaeda terrorist network and dated December 14, 2001, inAfghanistan. In the document, which was translated for CNN, the writer expressesdisappointment with the Taliban, who harbored him in Afghanistan, speaks ofbetrayal, and urges his children to shun al Qaeda. "Even amongst thestudents of religion, only few stood their ground and fought, and the resteither surrendered or fled," the document says, referring to the Taliban,according to a translation for CNN. Despite the setbacks, the purported willsays, "We will be victorious against the U.S. and the infidel West even ifit takes tens of years." "My last advice is to the mujahedeeneverywhere," the document says. "Take a breather and put aside for thetime being, fighting the Jews and the Crusaders, and instead devote your effortsto purifying your groups from the agents and the cowards and those impostors whoclaim to be scholars amongst you."

It was apparent to anyone that this was a psywar operation carried out by theCIA in the hope of creating a divide between Al Qaeda and the Taliban  andconfusion in their ranks. This was such a crude attempt that nobody took itseriously.

It has been reported since the middle 1990s that bin Laden was suffering froma kidney deficiency, which he developed when he was living in Khartoum before1996 and that he required periodic dialysis. There were even reports that he wasundergoing the dialysis in a military hospital in Peshawar. The Saudi media hadeven quoted one of his wives living in Saudi Arabia as saying that he wassuffering from a kidney deficiency.

There has been speculation from time to time as to how he is getting hisdialysis done now. Police sources in Pakistan discount American claims that heis in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) because, according to them,he would not be able to get his dialysis done regularly in the FATA. They,therefore, surmise that if he  has been managing to get his dialysis done,he must be in one of the cities of  Pakistan such as Peshawar or Quetta andnot in the remote tribal areas.

What is the present state of his kidneys? Is his death approaching? Only thedoctors treating him will know the answers to these questions. If the CIA reallyhas access to these doctors or their staff, why is it not using them to catchhim or kill him by administering wrong medicines to him?

It is said that when he was the Prime Minister before October 1999, NawazSharif used to say that it would be in the interest of the internationalcommunity that bin Laden died at the hands of his doctor rather than at thehands of the Americans. If he died at the hands of the Americans, he wouldbecome even a greater hero in the eyes of the Muslims. If he died at the handsof a doctor, the Ummah would forget him shortly thereafter.

10. Will bin Laden die definitively at least now--to prove the CIA right?

Also see: an article written by me on September24, 2006 on this subject

B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. ofIndia, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai.