An Insurgency Falters

The 'terrorism' in Balochistan, President Pervez Musharraf informs us,has been 'wiped out'. At Gwadar in Balochistan he stated, "We have beenable to destroy over 50 per cent (terror) networks. We are also committed towipe it out from the country." He stated, further, that a handful of elementsinvolved in disruptive activities consider themselves to be strong but they arenot. "I am not a person to be subdued by cowardly attacks," he declaimed,warning that if they fire "one rocket they will receive 10 hits."

General Musharraf's bravado notwithstanding, there is obvious concern inthe Pakistani establishment about the widespread retreat of the state across anextended swathe of territory. Musharraf had himself conceded that "increasingdissatisfaction in smaller provinces was a major problem facing the country whenhe took over in October 1999." A scrutiny of the conflict in Balochistanindicates that it has, since then, in fact becoming increasingly difficult tomanage the rebellion in the province.

Has the province calmed down after the assassination of Nawab Akbar KhanBugti on August 26, 2006? Are the tribal chiefs ready to throw in the towel andsettle for 'more autonomy'? These and related questions will be a matter ofinterest in the immediate future.

After the assassination of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti on August 26, 2006, andtill November 16, 2006, thirty-two people, including 24 civilians, have died in83 insurgency-related incidents in Balochistan. Before this, between January 1and August 26, 414 persons, including 198 civilians, 134 insurgents and 82soldiers, had been killed in at least 644 incidents. The insurgency evidentlycontinues to simmer and there has been a steady stream of bomb and rocketattacks on gas pipelines, railway tracks, power transmission lines, bridges, andcommunications infrastructure, as well as on military establishments andgovernmental facilities. Acts of violence are, according to Pakistani newsreports "not confined to a few districts but are taking place in practicallyall the Baloch districts including Quetta." Indeed, violence in the provincialcapital, Quetta, has increased in the recent weeks, with as many as 14explosions recorded since October 1, 2006. Landmine blasts continue to affectnormal life in the province. According to the Human Rights Commission ofPakistan (HRCP), there were 121 landmine blasts in 2006 (till September). Atleast 78 civilians and 28 soldiers were killed and over 150 people injured inthese incidents. Farid Ahmed, HRCP coordinator in Balochistan, indicated that"All these incidents have taken place in the Kohlu and Dera Bugti areas."

President Pervez Musharraf is reported to have met only "notables" fromfive Districts during his visit to Gwadar, rather than addressing a Jirga (assembly)of the Sardars (tribal chieftains). These notables were from Gwadar,Turbat, Panjgur, Awaran and Lasbela. The Government had earlier announced thatit was convening a Jirga of Baloch tribal elders in Islamabad on November8, but it was subsequently postponed till November 17 and the venue shifted toGwadar. Sources indicate that this was due to the unwillingness of some Sardarsto attend the Islamabad Jirga. The eventual decision to allow only eldersfrom five Districts to meet the President, as against the convocation of a Jirga,manifestly reduced the significance of the meeting at Gwadar. News reportsindicate that the Sardari system in the old Makran division — whichcomprised Gwadar, Turbat and Panjgur — was abolished decades ago, while Awaranand Lasbela have a semi-sardari system. Pakistani columnist Amir Mir told SAIRthat Islamabad even dropped the honorific 'Grand Jirga' and insteadrelabeled it as a meeting of 'notables'. No Sardar is reported to havemet the president, according to sources in Pakistan. It is also a clearindication that Islamabad will not negotiate with the existing leaders of theinsurgency, suggesting the persistence of a hard-line approach against them.This is entirely in line with Musharraf's stated position that only three (NawabBugti, Sardar Attaullah Mengal and Nawab Khair Bux Marri) of the 78 tribalchiefs were "troublemakers."

A Jirga has a unique position in the Baloch society, and there appears to bea competing facet to it now. Mir Suleman Dawood, the Khan of Kalat, (hisgrandfather Baglar Begi had signed the accession of what is present-dayBalochistan province with Pakistan on March 27, 1948) called a Grand Baloch ShahiJirga (grand meeting) on September 21, 2006, to protest against Islamabad'spolicies in Balochistan. With 95 tribal Sardars and 300 other 'notables'reportedly in attendance, it adopted a resolution condemning the killing ofNawab Bugti and Pakistan's "colonial occupation" of Baloch land. The Jirga,said to be the first of its kind bringing together so many chieftains under oneplatform in more than 100 years, adopted a resolution condemning what it calledthe "violation of its territorial integrity, exploitation of Balochistan'snatural resources, denial of the Baloch right to the ownership of theirresources and the military operation in the province." They also decided tomove the International Court of Justice over what they said was the violation ofan agreement between the former Kalat state, the then British Raj and Pakistanat the time of India's Partition. The Shahi Jirga was also anindication that the largely reclusive Khan of Kalat is still a respected figureand may emerge as a future player in Baloch politics.

General Musharraf's visit to Gwadar comes at a time when Bugti's JamhooriWatan Party (JWP) is reported to be 'falling apart'. Pakistani news reportsattribute this to the "disruptive interference of Pakistan's intelligenceagencies." While the JWP obviously faces a leadership crisis, sources inPakistan told SAIR that secret agencies have gained control over theparty. After the Bugti assassination, JWP members wanted to resign from theirlegislative posts but the Quetta Corps Commander threatened them with direconsequences, and they backed off. The party was weakened further after a fewmembers, including Secretary-General Shahid Bugti, resigned from their positionsafter reportedly developing differences with Bugti's son Jamil Bugti. However,recent reports now indicate that some rapprochement has occurred, and ShahidBugti and others have declared that they would carry on with Nawab Bugti's'mission'.

Writing in the Lahore-based weekly Nida-e-Millat on September 20,Maqbool Arshad notes: "Brahamdagh Bugti and Meer Aali Bugti [grandsons ofNawab Bugti] are viewed as strong candidates to become head of the Bugti tribe.Jameel Bugti and Talal Bugti [sons of Bugti] cannot be ignored — though theydon't have the majority on their side. Brahamdagh is a strong candidatebecause Nawab Akbar Bugti wanted him to be his successor, though someinfluential sardars of the tribe are opposed to his leadership, arguing thatAali Bugti has the right to become the sardar of the Bugti tribe because he isthe son of the eldest son of Nawab Bugti i.e. Saleem Bugti. Reportedly, "TheBugtis are divided over the issue of succession. Nawab Akbar Bugti'ssupporters want Brahamdagh Bugti to be the sardar. But another group wants tofollow the traditions according to which the eldest son is sardar always. SaleemBugti has died. According to tradition, Saleem Bugti's son i.e. Aali Bugti hasto become sardar… Akbar Bugti had three wives and six sons. His Baloch wifegave birth to four sons — Saleem, Talal, Rehan and Salal. Three sons havedied. Talal is alive. Akbar Bugti's second wife was a Pathan. She gave birthto Jameel Bugti. The third wife was Iranian and she gave birth to Shehzore Bugti.Thus there are five candidates for the office of sardar — Talal, Jameel,Shehzore, Aali and Brahamdagh."

There is evidence of some disarray in the leadership of other Balochnationalist formations. While Khair Bux Marri is silent, Attaullah Mengal hasbeen vocal after Bugti's death. The provincial assembly members from Mengals'party have resigned their seats. He had been issuing strong statements but hasabruptly become quiet. Noted Pakistani writer Mohammed Shehzad told SAIR that"Agencies are talking to him. His son Akhtar Mengal has been offered the'job' of Balochistan Chief Minister provided he stopped creating trouble forMusharraf."

There has been a momentary dispersal of the insurgents into the largelyinaccessible hills, according to sources. While there are some preliminary signsof their regrouping — they continue to attack a variety of state installationswith impunity — a clearer post-Bugti strategy is yet to crystallize, thoughthey are receiving instructions from Brahamdagh Bugti regularly and workingaccordingly. Reports of November 3 said Pakistani intelligence agencies haveclaimed that Brahamdagh is in Kabul and demanded that the Afghan Governmentextradite him. Brahamdagh, who was reportedly formally designated by Bugti ashis successor, is accused of orchestrating the insurgency. There is noextradition treaty between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Kanchan Lakshman is Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management;Assistant Editor, Faultlines: Writings on Conflict & Resolution. Courtesy,the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal