A birthday celebration without the birthday boy? Nothing could have been more symbolic of the quandary the country’s Opposition parties find themselves in. The top leaders will be in Chennai on June 3 to attend the mega birthday rally of Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) chief M. Karunanidhi (he turns 94) and also celebrate his 60 years as a legislator—a national record. The only hitch—the birthday boy would not be seen at the public function, confined as he is to his bedroom for the past six months.
It’s quite unfortunate, considering that Tamil Nadu’s marathon man has always been fond of felicitations. Even if those hosannas wouldn’t reach those ears, the leaders mouthing them would surely hope to somehow whip up a winning formula, which has been eluding them so far, to combat Narendra Modi’s growing political stature and near-invincibility.
Their latest battle—to elect the next president—is also woefully loaded against them. They have not shown the intent or cunning to counter the BJP’s game plan to get its nominee elected as Pranab Mukherjee’s successor. Instead, there is a meek acceptance that the BJP-led ruling combine would comfortably send its nominee to Rashtrapati Bhavan as it has more numbers than it needs. “Sonia Gandhi’s lunch did not kick up any strategy to wean away the non-NDA parties such as K. Chandrashekar Rao’s Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSR Congress or Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal. There was just a passing mention that these three parties would sail with the NDA because they do not want to be seen with the losing side,” admits a senior DMK leader, almost accepting the inevitability of defeat.
Recalling how Telugu Desam Party founder and the then Andhra Pradesh CM N.T. Rama Rao refused to field a candidate against P.V. Narasimha Rao, calling him “a Telugu bidda” (fellow Telugu brother), when Rao fought the Nandyal bypolls (after becoming PM in 1991) and let him walk over with a huge margin, the leaders agree that Patnaik too cannot be faulted in case he backs a BJP nominee from Orissa. “He would also like to partake in the credit for getting an Oriya elected as president for the first time,” points out AIADMK MP V. Maithreyan.
The result is that Jagan Reddy, who is fighting Rao in Telangana and N. Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh, is in league with these two for the presidential elections. Similarly, Rao and Naidu, otherwise squabbling, are on the same page in this contest. This only exposes the inept political management of the Congress, which is trying to emerge as the leader of the Opposition front.
Gopalkrishna Gandhi
To its discredit, Sonia Gandhi’s team has also not been able to come up with a credible candidate, cold-shouldering whom would prove politically costly for the BJP’s new non-NDA friends. The name of former West Bengal governor Gopalkrishna Gandhi has been floated, but he is hesitant unless assured of a decent share of votes or, better still, get accepted as the consensus candidate. The BJP will never back this trenchant critic in spite of Modi’s newfound love for his grandfather Mohandas K. Gandhi. “He would only spell trouble for our government. So why invite a constitutional crisis by getting him into Rashtrapati Bhavan?” asks a Union minister.
Unfortunately for Gandhi’s grandson, he evokes little interest even among the Opposition and excites only a few Left intellectuals. Leaders of the regional parties such as the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Janata Dal (United) and the DMK do not appear enamoured of his candidature as they consider him too distant and uppity. Gandhi refused to confirm to Outlook if he had been sounded out for the contest.
“It is important for presidential candidates to leave the battle with their honour intact, unlike T.N. Seshan who suddenly threw his hat in the ring in 1991, with just the Shiv Sena’s backing, only to lose horribly,” says former Congress MP B.S. Gnanadesikan. “In contrast, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, though tempted by a second term in 2012, quickly left the battle unscathed when he realised the then Opposition did not have the numbers.”
Kalam had been proposed for a second (though not successive) term in 2012 by Mamata Banerjee and Mulayam Singh Yadav. Apparently, even the Bengali connection had failed to make Mamata back Mukherjee, perhaps because she wanted to be the Bengali numero UNO. As the situation unfolded, Kalam, who was insisting on being accepted as a consensus candidate, realised that the Opposition had neither the numbers nor even a semblance of unity. In fact, Mulayam himself switched sides to back Mukherjee ditching Mamata in the process. So Kalam bailed out safely.
"As ruling party, the Congress got its nominees elected as president the last two times, but is unwilling to let the BJP enjoy the same privilege now,” says Thuglak editor S. Gurumurthy. “The party believes that only by heading an anti-Modi front in this losing contest can it continue to spearhead an Opposition front in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Whether the Congress can command the same level of respect in 2019 remains to be seen, as its winnability has been diminishing with every election.”
BJP leaders remember the only time a consensus candidate had been agreed upon in recent times was when the A.B. Vajpayee government graciously accepted Mulayam Singh Yadav’s suggestion and fielded Kalam in 2002. “Vajpayee also ensured that the Congress was on board through prior consultations. The Congress has never returned the compliment, but now wants to be consulted,” says BJP spokesperson S.R. Sekhar.
The Congress’ Tamil Nadu ally, the DMK, which is hosting the June 3 show, is equally clueless. Karunanidhi’s sudden retirement has propelled his son M.K. Stalin to the forefront, but he has not displayed the sharp political acumen his father is famous for. “The AIADMK is split into two and one faction is ruling, constantly challenged by the rival group. Yet Stalin has not shown the slightest indication of taking advantage of this dichotomy,” says a senior DMK MLA. “His father would have relished this state of flux, especially when the DMK and its allies have 98 MLAs. Karunanidhi would have worked to destabilise the government and force an early election, but Stalin wants to wait and watch.”
Instead of taking on the E.K. Palaniswami (EPS) government, Stalin seems to have declared Modi as Enemy No. 1 and the EPS government as the Centre’s acolyte. This arrangement suits EPS as the Modi shield deflects all the arrows aimed at the state government. This has also resulted in a peculiar situation in which the two AIADMK factions, which are fighting and calling each other names, have both extended support to the BJP’s presidential candidate. This has ensured a comfortable winning margin for Modi’s nominee. “Since Stalin is with the Congress, we are forced to be with the BJP. Having the country’s ruling party on our side is useful,” quips an AIADMK minister.
Unlike in 2007 and 2012, when the DMK was a key player in the presidential poll, this time it can only be part of the Opposition’s posturing. Once the election is over, the ruling AIADMK is likely to invite the new president to Tamil Nadu to score more brownie points. And Stalin can only watch helplessly. And so will his friends in the Opposition.
By G.C. Shekhar in Chennai
