APRIL 12, 1999. The VIP gate at Chennai airport wore a festive look. Festoons and AIADMK flags decorated the area and the media— both print and electro-nic— was in full attendance. AIADMK general secretary J. Jayalalitha expounded her plans: "I am going to Delhi to dislodge the Vajpayee government and to install a new government." She did not even rule out the possibility of her staking claim to become the next prime minister. It had seemed to be her moment of glory. Now, the festivity has faded as the AIADMK camp licks its wounds following their chief’s failed mission in New Delhi.
Ironically, when it all began, she was seen as the new kingmaker. In Tamil Nadu, a state which emotively backs winners, the masses were quick to sing their hosannas to Jaya. For the next five days, her popularity graph saw a steady rise. Every time she appeared on national television, her supporters were sure that Amma was moving with a purpose and that she was all set to teach a lesson or two to the Vajpayees and Advanis of the world.
However, when the vote of confidence was defeated by a single vote, the mood altered perceptibly. In spite of Amma withdrawing her 18 MPs, despite Orissa chief minister Giridhar Gomango casting his vote, notwithstanding Mayawati changing her stance after her public declaration on the floor of the House, Vajpayee lost out by a solitary vote. "Poor Vajpayee, he deserved to be in power," said the same set of people who were firmly behind her when she set off on her Mission Topple. Since then, there has been a steady slump in Jayalalitha’s public acceptability. For the first time, Jayalalitha was seen running to other politicians in a bid to garner support. And when at theend of the day no govern-ment could be set in place and elections announced, Jayalalitha ended up lookinga failure. And there were few sympathisers for a loser who was till just the other day a picture of overweening arrogance and over confidence.
The fact that the three member TMC parliamentary party could checkmate her chances of joining what would have been a Congress-led coalition at the Centre is now being seen as further proof of her new-found vulnerability. "The TMC’s principled stand proves that three can be bigger than 18 in the moment of crisis," admitted an AIADMK func-tionary. The fact that Jayalalitha gave a letter of support for the Congress without any precondition was also seen as a tame surrender. "After all, we took the lead in dislodging the BJP government. But instead of rewarding us, the Congress actually penalised us," partymen rue.
One aspect that has come as a rude shock for the AIADMK and its supporters has been the CPM’s attitude to the AIADMK. "We cannot understand them. When every-one wanted their leader Jyoti Basu to take the lead, why were they making such a fuss? Was it some part of a ploy to discreditus?" they wonder. Party leaders were also unhappy with Harkishen Singh Surjeet and Mulayam Singh Yadav for refusing to visit Amma at her hotel. However, at the end of it, AIADMK circles feel slightly relieved they’re no longer targeted for destabilising the government as the Congress and the Left are busy focusing on Mulayam for his intransigence that prevented the alternative from emerging .
According to a senior AIADMK leader, the party would not be particularly perturbed if other parties and the ‘Brahminical’ media starts accusing them of playing the toppling game, since they believe that such a campaign may well prove counterproductive. What is really making AIADMK circles doubly wary is the fact that there is no obvious upheaval against the DMK’s decision to join hands with the BJP. "We feel caught in a trap of our own making," says one AIADMK worker. "We, along with the MDMK and the PMK, projected the BJP as yet another political party and removed the sting out of its communal posturings. In that sense, we have done the hard work and paved the way for the DMK to align with the BJP. Now all our efforts to present BJP as communal cannot hold water any more."
IN 1998, the AIADMK was wooed by all comers. The top brass of the Congress and the BJP were queuing up before Poes Garden seeking an alliance. But now, it is the AIADMK which is desperately seeking partners. "Except for Subramanian Swamy, who has no base whatsoever, there is no open support for us. We are striving hard for the support of the Congress. But even Sonia refused to grant an interview to Amma after the failure to form an alternative government," mourns another AIADMK man.
On the other hand, its principal rival in the state, the DMK, seems to be sitting pretty. In theory, the DMK leadership is willing to go either with the Congress or with the BJP, whoever is willing to give them a larger share of seats. The DMK’s calculation is that in the next two weeks, the Supreme Court will deliver its judgement on the Special Courts case and it would go against the AIADMK. In that scenario, the Congress would have no alternative but to align with the DMK. However, if the judgement is not delivered in time and the Congress decides to go with the AIADMK, there will be three fronts in the state: the Congress-AIADMK combine, the DMK-MDMK-PMK- BJP group and the TMC-Left-JD front. A three-way split will work in favour of the DMK.
The DMK is also getting ready to marshal political reasons for its association with the BJP. "One of the primary political developments in the country since 1989 is the idea of collective rule at the Centre. Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination in 1991 saw the reversal of that significant development. The Congress, with its Pachmarhi declarations, again wants to negate the spirit of collective rule," observes a party ideologue. Now the DMK wants to present the BJP as an "inclusive" structure which is prepared to share power with others and the Congress as an "exclusive" structure that is not prepared to dilute its powers.
But the AIADMK is not interested in such polemical issues. For it, politics means personal benefit for Amma. With the dismissal of the DMK government now a distant dream, the party wants some sort of legislative immunity for its leader. Hence, it is planning to ask Jayalalitha to contest the parliamentary polls. "We have identified Gobichettipalayam and Periyakulam as two safe constituencies for Amma. There are two reasons behind this move. One, it would provide some immunity for Jayalalitha from the legal process and two, we need someone who can really lobby for us in Delhi," says a senior AIADMK leader.
According to him, the last two weeks proved that the party had no MPs with the stature to work for the party and create a network friends in the capital. "Amma’s presence as an MP would get us more friends in Delhi," observes a senior AIADMK leader. The party feels that the present ebb of popularity is only a passing phase. "If the Election Commission sticks to its original plan of holding elections in September, Jayalalitha will bounce back with a vengeance. However, if it succumbs to the blackmail of the Sangh parivar and holds election in end-June or July, we would be finished. Even an alliance with the Congress will not help," a party functionary observes.
While the AIADMK knows that public memory is short, it is also worried that the cases against Jayalalitha might catch up with her. "Finally, it all depends on the Supreme Court’s judgement. If (DMK chief) Karunanidhi fails to win that, then there is no one to stop Jayalalitha from emerging the most powerful politician in the peninsula," AIADMK leaders assert. And that reflects the mood of the party: enormous— if unfounded— confidence.
