Trends & Key Issues
- The Congress-led UDF is on a strong wicket.
- The Left-led LDF is fighting anti-incumbency.
- The allegations of corruption against defence minister A.K. Antony in the Israeli missile deal failed to take off and is unlikely to impact the UDF prospects.
- The divide within the CPI(M) has disillusioned the cadre.
- The church is ranged against the Left.
- The Ezhava community and the Nairs are pro-UDF.
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For the Congress, ‘20/20’ became the catchword as the campaign drew to a close. Many pundits though still feel that it will be a miracle, given the organisational weakness of the Congress. What accounts for the UDF confidence is that the ordinary voter is not in favour of the Left this time. A combination of factors, anti-incumbency and divisions within the ranks (capped by the never-ending tussle between Pinarayi and CM V.S. Achuthanandan) has left the LDF in a mess.
In fact, it was almost as if the CPI(M) was going out of its way to make enemies wherever possible. On the social front, the Church is furious with the Marxists, alleging that it is imposing its atheist agenda and stifling minority educational institutions. Some Catholic dioceses even issued a fiat against the "pseudo-secularists and hegemonic parties", ignoring the Catholic Bishops Conference of India call to stay off party politics. The generally pro-Left Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam of the majority Ezhava community has also turned the UDF way this time. The Nair Service Society of the intermediary caste Hindus stuck to its policy of equidistance from major fronts, but has signalled a pro-Congress tilt. All three communities are upset with the state government’s attempt to put a ceiling on fees charged by private educational institutions.
Even with all this, the "bad flavour" of the month, by all accounts, is Pinarayi Vijayan. His cosying up to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) of Abdul Nasser Madani, linked to the 1998 Coimbatore blasts, has embarrassed many of his comrades. Pinarayi justifies it with the ends-justify-the-means line, saying the PDP’s unsolicited, unconditional support could help end the Muslim League’s sway.
Not many are convinced. Critic and columnist Prof Sukumar Azhikode, a friend of Pinarayi’s, has this to say: "It’s sickening. It hurts one’s eyes to se them—Vijayan and Madani—together." Tactically, CM V.S. Achuthanandan disapproved of the open dalliance with the Muslim cleric, whose family is on the terror radar. In fact, Director-General of Prosecution V.G. Govindan Nair’s advisory to the home department has asked that serious note be taken of the allegations against the Madani family following the high court’s intervention. The LDF’s other constituents aren’t happy either. CPI general secretary A.B. Bardhan has called the PDP "communal". RSP general secretary T.J. Chandrachoodan described the party as "worse than the Muslim League". It was left to CPI(M) politburo member S. Ramachandran Pillai to raise a technical argument in Pinarayi’s favour, saying the party had not yet taken a stand on the PDP unlike on the League, which "is communal".
CM V.S. Achuthanandan at an election rally in Malappuram
Such differences in perception, coupled with the CPI(M)’s ploy to clip the wings of allies in seat-sharing, led to the near break-up of the 30-year-old LDF in Kerala. (Pinarayi succeeded in denying a seat each to the JD(S) and RSP). The JD(S)—represented locally by media baron Veerendra Kumar—has since walked out of the front. Insiders say the cumulative effect and the suppressed resentment within the CPI(M) against the state secretary will hit the ldf’s poll prospects.
But why did Pinarayi get into an understanding with the PDP, to the point of almost triggering a Hindu backlash against the Left? Some say it was a ploy to deflect the Opposition campaign against the biggest-ever scam to hit Kerala’s shores. As power minister in 1996-98, flouting established procedure, he presided over the award of a Rs 390-crore contract to Canadian engineering firm SNC Lavalin for the repair and modernisation of three hydel plants. The CAG had slammed the contract. The CBI, which probed the deal on the HC’s orders, has arraigned Pinarayi as the 9th accused. Its request for sanction to prosecute him is pending with the governor, who in turn is awaiting the state cabinet’s advice. Whether Pinarayi willed it or not, the media focus has shifted from the power scam to Madani.
And what are the gains for the Left? Maybe Muslim votes in 3-4 seats. For that, the CPI(M) seems to have sacrificed its secular credentials. The Muslim heartland of Malappuram district, traditionally a Muslim League fortress, saw aggressive campaigning as the League fought to regain its hold, dented by the shock defeat to the CPI(M) in Manjeri in ’04. Following delimitation, Manjeri has been merged into Malappuram. Unlike other seats, the debates here were on Bush, the Iraq invasion, Zionism and anti-imperialism. Ponnani, also in Malappuram, was the break-or-make seat in the CPI(M)-CPI tussle. (Finally, the CPI shifted to Wayanad.) The CPI(M) is backing Dr Hussein Randathani here, the PDP-backed independent.
The League may scrape through but if the anti-imperialist combination of fringe groups makes inroads into the conservative households, it will be curtains for them, at least for awhile. It could also trigger a new phase of Islamic fundamentalism, says Prof M.N. Karassery, writer and Muslim scholar.
There was one issue the Left thought of as an electoral card, the allegation that there was a Rs 600-crore kickback in the Rs 10,000-crore medium range surface-to-air missile deal with Israel Aerospace Industries. The deal was inked during A.K. Antony’s current tenure as defence minister. But the Left campaign did not impress and CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat even had to admit that "Antony isn’t personally corrupt".
The defence minister also deftly played the matter, ensuring that his Mr Clean image remained intact. "Show me some evidence and I’ll probe it. I will invoke the pre-contract integrity provisions to cancel the contract, launch criminal proceedings, ban the company and recover the money. I’m not scared of allegations. I don’t own a house. I don’t even own a bicycle," said Antony, taking the wind out of the sails of the Left campaign.
An interesting side note is that after some seasons, this election has also been about personalities. And the one candidate who hogged the maximum headlines was, predictably, Shashi Tharoor. The 53-year-old former UN diplomat turned Thiruvananthapuram into a key contest. Sporting a white khadi mundu and shirt with a party-coloured shawl draped around his shoulders, Tharoor spoke to the people in their tongue, fobbing off charges of being an outsider. His Malayalam may have an English intonation, but it didn’t matter to the crowds.
Tharoor didn’t leave anything to chance. He offered himself in thulabharam—his weight against offerings at temples— knelt at Christian shrines, dropped in at Muslim centres, saluted Dalit icons and called on virtually anyone who mattered besides shaking hands with voters all over. The Congress did not help his cause. Till the last minute, there was confusion— would he be fielded from Palakkad (Tharoor’s home district)?
All in all, it was a busy, hyper-active election. Backroom boys of both fronts are luring voters with money and other inducements. A battle royal was also fought in the TV studios, some live shows even turning into slugfests, with police using batons to restore order. Some 60-odd candidates of the UDF, LDF and BJP barnstormed hills, valleys and backwaters, appealing to 2.16 crore voters. Now the wait begins for the verdict on May 16.
