The WMO says El Niño is expected to intensify into a very strong event by the end of 2026 and persist through February 2027.
Exceptionally warm tropical Pacific waters are supporting the strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 temperatures reaching up to about 2.6°C above average.
A very strong El Niño could alter rainfall and temperature patterns and increase risks of floods, drought and extreme heat, although impacts will vary by region and season.
El Niño is expected to strengthen into a very strong event in the coming months, raising the risk of floods, droughts and extreme heat across parts of the world through 2027, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Thursday. The weather phenomenon has a nearly 100% chance of persisting through February 2027, according to the UN weather agency.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon caused by warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It is not caused by climate change, although its impacts occur against a backdrop of long-term global warming.
El Niño Set To Become ‘Very Strong’
El Niño is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Forecasts from WMO’s Global Producing Centres indicate an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%” that El Niño will persist through to February 2027. This is the first time that a WMO El Niño/La Niña Update has been so unequivocal, reflecting the strong agreement within WMO’s extensive network.
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Fueled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further during the coming months to a very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of this year, with climate impacts continuing well into 2027.
“The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
What Could El Niño Mean For Extreme Weather?
Sea surface temperatures across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, the region at the heart of El Niño, are already well above average – one of the tell-tale signs of El Niño – and are continuing to rise.
The widely used Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in central-eastern equatorial Pacific has strengthened markedly from an average +1.5 °C above normal during May-July 2026 and +2.0 °C above normal in July. Weekly values subsequently increased further between late July and mid-August, ranging from approximately +2.2 °C to +2.6 °C above average, indicating continued intensification.
El Niño and La Niña are among the most powerful naturally occurring influences on the global climate system. A very strong event increases the likelihood of major changes in rainfall, temperatures and atmospheric circulation across many regions of the world.
However, the strength of an El Niño event alone does not determine how severe its impacts will be in any individual country or region.
Its effects vary according to location and season and can be modified by other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
