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UEFA Champions League Knockouts: Qualification Scenarios Ahead Of Final Matchday

UEFA Champions League 2025-26 Knockouts: Europe’s elite head into the final round of league-phase matches, with PSG, Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Manchester City all at risk of being pushed into the playoff round

PSG's Achraf Hakimi and Newcastle's Harvey Barnes jumps for a header during the Champions League match on Wednesday, January 21, 2026. | Photo: AP/Ian Hodgson
Summary
  • Only Arsenal and Bayern Munich are guaranteed automatic qualification in UEFA Champions League

  • Just three points separating third-placed Real Madrid and 15th-placed Juventus

  • PSG, Barcelona and Manchester City sit on 13 points and must win to avoid slipping into playoff round

  • Chelsea face Napoli in a must-win clash

Europe’s giants face a tense final round of fixtures in the opening phase of the UEFA Champions League, with a total of 18 matches being played simultaneously on Wednesday.

Defending champions Paris Saint-Germain, 15-time winners Real Madrid, FC Barcelona, and Manchester City are all at risk of being pushed into the playoff round ahead of Matchday 8.

The margins remain razor-thin, with just three points separating Real Madrid in third and Juventus in 15th.

Only eight teams qualify directly for the round of 16, while the next 16 sides enter a two-legged playoff to complete the knockout bracket. After seven rounds, Arsenal, who sit top, and Bayern Munich in second place are the only teams assured of automatic qualification.

PSG, Barcelona, Man City Under Pressure

Eight teams, ranging from PSG in sixth to Atalanta in 13th, are locked on 13 points.

PSG host Newcastle United at Parc des Princes, with the French champions currently ahead of the English side on goals scored. However, a draw or defeat could see them slip into the playoff zone.

Barcelona and Manchester City, also on 13 points, are both aiming to break into the automatic qualification places. Barcelona host Copenhagen, while 2023 champions City welcome Turkish league leaders Galatasaray.

“I prefer to have more (points), but it is what we deserve,” Pep Guardiola said. “We need to focus and try to win our game, then see what position we finish. We’ll see the result in the last 10 minutes…”

Last season, both PSG and City were forced into the playoffs, but with opposite outcomes. City were eliminated by Real Madrid before the round of 16, while PSG went on to win the competition for the first time.

Napoli, Chelsea Face Elimination Threats

Chelsea enter the final round in eighth place, taking on 25th-placed Napoli. The Serie A champions sit one place below the playoff cut-off, and are staring at early elimination as head coach Antonio Conte takes on his former club.

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“I know (Chelsea) very well. I know their ambitions. They are Club World champions,” Conte said. “ We have to give it our all. We cannot underestimate them.”

Two-time Champions League winner Jose Mourinho is also under pressure, as Benfica must beat his former club, Real Madrid, and rely on other results to sneak into the playoffs. Real Madrid, meanwhile, are third on 15 points and still not guaranteed a top-eight finish.

Premier League Clubs Dominate

The English Premier League dominates the upper end of the table, with five clubs currently in the top eight. Arsenal lead the standings and are on course to become the first team to complete a perfect opening league phase, hosting bottom-placed Kairat.

Under the new format, this would mean eight wins from eight matches. The Gunners will surpass the six-game perfect records achieved by 13 teams under the old group-stage system.

Liverpool are fourth on 15 points and well placed for direct qualification as they host Qarabag. The Azerbaijani side, however, have been one of the tournament’s surprise packages and currently occupy a playoff position.

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Tottenham, fifth on 14 points, travel to already-eliminated Eintracht Frankfurt, with European performances offering relief for under-fire head coach Thomas Frank.

After the end of Matchday 8, the UEFA Champions League playoff draw will take place at 4:30 PM IST on Friday.

(With AP Inputs)

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