Benfica Vs Real Madrid Preview, UEFA Champions League Playoff: What's Expected? Check Opta Prediction

Only Jose Mourinho could mastermind one of the Champions League's greatest ever endings to a match, and it had to be against former club Real Madrid. 

Needing a goal to displace Marseille in the play-off places, Benfica goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin rose highest to meet Fredrik Aursnes' free-kick to score in the 98th minute. 

Trubin put his name in the Champions League history books, becoming only the fifth different goalkeeper to score in UEFA's flagship competition after Jorg Butt (three), Sinan Bolat, Vincent Enyeama and Ivan Provedel (one each). 

It capped a crazy encounter at Estadio da Luz, a game that Benfica won 4-2, and just 20 days on from that memorable match-up, the two teams square off again on Tuesday. 

Since that defeat, Alvaro Arbeloa's Madrid side have won three consecutive LaLiga games as they continue to go toe-to-toe with Clasico rivals Barcelona at the summit. 

Benfica are playing catch-up in the Primeira Liga, with Friday's victory over Santa Clara keeping them third, seven points adrift of leaders Porto. 

However, rivalries will be renewed as Madrid look to take a first-leg advantage back to the Santiago Bernabeu, while Benfica will be out to replicate their late heroics from just under three weeks ago.

Here, we delve into the key Opta insights.

What's expected?

The Opta supercomputer is siding with Madrid, with their chances of victory rated at 49%. 

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations, Benfica were victorious in just 27.2%, with the remaining 23.8% of scenarios seeing it being all square ahead of the second leg. 

And Benfica may be considered as the underdogs given their poor record against LaLiga teams in UEFA's flagship. 

They have won just two of their last eight Champions League matches against Spanish opposition (D1 L5). 

However, both of those wins have come on home soil whilst scoring exactly four goals in each – 4-0 vs Atletico Madrid in October 2024 and 4-2 vs Madrid in January.

Benfica have also won three of their four Champions League/European Cup games against Los Blancos (L1), but the knockout stages are when Madrid click into gear. 

In addition, Madrid have won eight of their last 10 Champions League games against Portuguese sides (D1 L1), netting 2.2 goals on average per fixture during that time.

Benfica aiming to use home advantage

Benfica's five-game unbeaten run in all competitions has given them confidence ahead of their reunion with Madrid, and they will be hoping the Estadio da Luz will give them the advantage against Arbeloa's side.

That is because Mourinho's men have won their last two Champions League home games (2-0 v Napoli and 4-2 v Madrid).

The only previous occasion in which they have won three in a row in the same edition was in 1994-95, in their first three matches following the competition's rebrand.

In addition, only Sporting CP (nine) and Porto (eight) have more home wins in the Primeira Liga than Benfica's seven, and they will need to carry that domestic form onto the European stage. 

Ahead of kick-off, Mourinho said that Madrid would be a "wounded and dangerous" opposition for his team, though it was Benfica who took the game to the LaLiga giants to ensure of their place in the play-off round. 

Indeed, Benfica attempted 14 shots in the first half against Madrid in their previous meeting. They had only ever faced more shots in the first half of a Champions League game on record once before (since 2003-04), facing 15 against Juventus in November 2013.

And after Trubin's late heroics, Mourinho won for the first time against Madrid across all competitions in what was his sixth attempt. Prior to that triumph, Los Blancos were the side he had faced most in his career without recording a victory.

And Aursnes could be key for Benfica again. He has created 38 chances for the club in the Portuguese top flight, a total only bettered by four players, while in the Champions League, only Nicolas Otamendi (390) and Enzo Barrenechea (358) have played more successful passes than his 255. 

Arbeloa beginning to find consistency

Since replacing Xabi Alonso, Arbeloa has been able to provide some stability at Madrid, with Los Blancos winning all six of his LaLiga matches at the helm, and they now lead the way at the summit of Spain's top tier.

However, it is in the Champions League where the 15-time champions need to find consistency, with Arbeloa the man tasked with leading them into the last 16 of the competition.

Across their last 11 matches in the Champions League, Madrid have lost more often (six) than they have won (five), though Arbeloa has only overseen two of those matches. 

Prior to these last 11, their previous six defeats in the competition came over a span of 39 matches (between April 2022 and March 2025).

And the way they may look to do that is with their star-studded attack. Indeed, only Barcelona, Bayern Munich (both 22) and Arsenal (23) scored more goals in the league phase than Madrid's 21, which was level with Paris Saint-Germain. 

Los Blancos ranked 22nd in the league phase of this season's Champions League for high turnovers (58).

However, they ranked first for the percentage of high turnovers resulting in shots (31% - 18/58), but that way forward in the final third may be difficult against Benfica. 

That is because the two teams with the most goals following direct attacks in the Champions League this season is Benfica and Madrid, with four apiece.

Arbeloa's side are the top-ranked team for direct attacks (29), averaging 3.6 per game in this edition (Benfica with 17, at 2.1 per game).

And one player who could be key to unlocking the door in the final third is Vinicius Junior, who arrives into this game with confidence having netted a brace during Madrid's 4-1 win over Real Sociedad on Saturday, in the process moving onto 200 goal involvements for Madrid.

Indeed, the Brazilian finished the match with team-high totals for dribbles (four), shots on target (two) and touches in the opposition box (13), while in the Champions League, he has the joint-most assists with four, level with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Michael Olise, Arda Guler and Dominik Szoboszlai. 

And he has formed a flourishing partnership with Kylian Mbappe. 

Vinicius and Mbappe have combined to create 19 chances in the Champions League this season, more than any other duo.

In fact, the only player with more chances created for a teammate in this edition than Vinicius for Mbappe (nine) is Mbappe for Vinicius (10).

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Benfica – Vangelis Pavlidis

Vangelis Pavlidis more than played his part in Benfica's thrilling 4-2 win last month, becoming only the fourth player to be involved in 3+ goals (two goals, one assist) against Madrid and the first since Dusan Tadic for Ajax in March 2019.

The Greek forward is also one goal away from becoming just the second Benfica player to score 10+ goals in the Champions League (currently on nine), after their all-time top scorer in the competition, Oscar Cardozo (11).

Real Madrid – Kylian Mbappe

With his double at Estadio de Luz, Mbappe netted his ninth away goal in the Champions League this season, the joint-most away goals in a single campaign in the competition along with Cristiano Ronaldo (2013-14) and Robert Lewandowski (2019-20).

Mbappe's tally for Madrid in UEFA's flagship competition in 2025-26 is 13 in seven appearances. Of players with 5+ games played, this is the highest goals-per-game ratio of any player in a single European Cup/Champions League campaign (1.86).

The goalscoring record for a single season in the Champions League is 17, set by Ronaldo in 2013-14, so Mbappe has history in his sights.