Nitish Kumar, JDU, And The Uncertain Politics Of Post-Nitish Bihar

Drawing a parallel, Manoj Jha recalled how the BJP had targeted former Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik in 2024 after a video showed his aide, V.K. Pandian, placing his hand on the podium during a speech. “The BJP ran that visual 24×7 for months. Taking that standard, this incident should also raise serious concern,” Jha said, adding that such videos create doubts, disturbance, and an unhealthy political message.

Former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti also reacted strongly by writing on X. She said that she personally knows and respects Nitish Kumar, which is why seeing him pull the veil of a Muslim woman was shocking. She went on to suggest that the time may have come for him to step down as Chief Minister.

This incident is not an isolated one. Over the last two years, various videos have surfaced online showing Nitish Kumar behaving in ways that have caused quite discomfort among other leaders and allies. These moments have increased speculation about his health. Hence, transforming the doubt into larger political questions - what the future of the Janata Dal (United) will be after Nitish Kumar.

Questions surrounding Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s health have once again come to the forefront, following the circulation of a viral video on social media. The video, which surfaced on Monday, shows Nitish Kumar pulling the hijab off the face of a Muslim woman, an AYUSH doctor, while handing over her appointment letter. The incident has triggered political backlash and reignited debates about his physical and mental fitness to hold office.

Several opposition parties, including the Congress, have criticised the ruling alliance. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Bihar’s principal opposition party, has targeted the BJP for its silence on the issue. RJD MP Manoj Jha described the visuals as deeply disturbing, noting that even those present on stage appeared uncomfortable for a moment. He pointed out that one of the Deputy Chief Ministers even tried to intervene by holding Nitish Kumar’s hand.

Nitish Kumar and the Social Base of JDU

Nitish Kumar belongs to the Kurmi caste, which constitutes around 2.87 per cent of Bihar’s population. The Koeri (or Kushwaha) community accounts for roughly 4.21 per cent. Together, these two groups form the “Lav-Kush” social coalition, with Kurmi as “Kush” and Koeri/Kushwaha as “Lav”, a political construct that has played a decisive role in Bihar politics. Combined, they represent close to 7 per cent of the electorate and have influenced outcomes in 20–30 assembly constituencies.

JDU is currently the second-largest party in the Bihar Assembly by number of MLAs and the third-largest by vote share. In the 2025 Assembly elections, the BJP won 89 seats, JDU 85, and RJD 25. Vote shares stood at roughly 20–21 per cent for the BJP, 18–19 per cent for JDU, and 23–24 per cent for RJD.

Historically, JDU’s core support base has comprised the Lav-Kush bloc and the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs). Majorly, this vote base has remained intact mainly because of Nitish Kumar’s personal credibility. But now the central question is whether this support will continue after Nitish Kumar exits active politics.

Leadership Vacuum after Nitish

Professor Dr Rakesh Ranjan of Patna University believes that JDU’s support base could fragment in Nitish Kumar’s absence. He argues that the party lacks a prominent backward-caste leader capable of commanding mass support across Kurmi, Koeri, and EBC communities.

“This is why a section of JDU wants Nishant Kumar, Nitish Kumar’s son, to enter politics,” Ranjan says. “But the real question is acceptability. Nishant has no political experience. Whether he can acquire political wisdom and fit into Bihar’s rough political terrain remains uncertain.”

If neither Nitish nor Nishant plays an active role, the party faces a bleak scenario. Leaders such as Sanjay Jha or Lalan Singh are often mentioned, but both come from upper-caste backgrounds, according to Ranjan. “JDU’s core vote base is backward classes, which are EBCs, Koeri, and Kurmi. If leadership does not emerge from within these groups, the party risks losing its social foundation altogether,” he says.

Such a fragmentation, Ranjan adds, would benefit both the BJP and the RJD.

Rise and Decline of the Lav-Kush–EBC Coalition

The Lav-Kush political alliance emerged in the 1990s as a counterweight to Yadav-centric politics. For nearly two decades, this bloc formed the backbone of JDU’s electoral strength. Voting trends reflect this clearly.

In 2010, when EBCs and Lav-Kush groups consolidated behind Nitish Kumar, JDU reached its peak with a vote share of 22.6 per cent. EBCs, who constitute nearly 36 per cent of Bihar’s population, were decisive. Media reports suggest that during this peak phase, 55–60 per cent of EBC votes went to Nitish Kumar.

However, post-2020, this support has declined to around 40–45 per cent, a trend that continued into 2025. While Nitish Kumar remains an important EBC leader, the overwhelming trust he once commanded has visibly eroded.

It is worth recalling that EBC voters had earlier supported Lalu Prasad Yadav for nearly a decade, enabling RJD to rule Bihar for 15 years. When this support shifted to Nitish Kumar, he actively introduced EBC-centric policies, such as reservation in panchayat elections and targeted welfare schemes, to anchor this constituency. The support for Nitish created not just political loyalty but an emotional bond, with many EBC voters viewing Nitish as a benefactor.

The Nishant Kumar Question

It is precisely this emotional connection that a section of JDU now hopes to preserve through Nishant Kumar. Ironically, Nitish Kumar has long been a vocal critic of dynastic politics and has deliberately kept his family out of power, presenting this as a matter of political ethics.

Yet, over the past few months, both before and after the elections, discussion around Nishant’s political entry has intensified. This shift is less about family legacy and more about organisational survival. With Nitish’s health under scrutiny and no mass leader from backward communities emerging within JDU, promoting Nishant is increasingly seen as a political necessity rather than an ideological contradiction.

Senior journalist Pushyamitra believes Nitish Kumar himself is preparing to step away from power. “There is no leader who can protect JDU’s core vote base after him. That is why the groundwork is being laid for Nishant’s entry,” he says.

Pushyamitra argues that Nishant’s presence could help retain JDU’s traditional voters, as their loyalty to Nitish may extend emotionally to his son. However, he dismisses fears of an imminent party split. “Politics is not arithmetic. Vote banks don’t shift because MLAs defect. There is no JDU MLA who independently commands EBC or Koeri-Kurmi votes. These voters follow Nitish Kumar, not individual legislators.”

He also notes that the BJP cannot afford to hurt or sideline Nitish Kumar. “Betraying Nitish would backfire. The BJP’s own vote base would react adversely.”

BJP–JDU Power Struggle

Former TISS professor Pushpendra sees Bihar’s current politics primarily as a contest between the BJP and JDU. According to him, the BJP’s objective is not to inherit JDU’s vote bank but to install its own Chief Minister.

“The BJP wants its CM. JDU wants to increase its numbers so the BJP cannot form a government independently,” he explains. The interplay between both parties led them to court MLAs from other parties. There are reports that AIMIM’s five MLAs and Congress’s six MLAs are in touch with JDU, while the BJP is attempting to engineer a major split within RJD.

Pushpendra predicts significant political churn over the next five years. “Nothing would be surprising, not even a major split in RJD, potentially leaving Bihar without a strong opposition.”

Speculation has long existed that a faction within JDU could eventually merge with the BJP. However, Pushpendra believes this possibility has diminished after the election results. “Earlier, it was said JDU would split three ways. Now, while future factions are possible, there is no immediate move towards a BJP merger.”

BJP’s Expanding Social Strategy

Among Bihar’s major parties, the BJP has made the most systematic effort to expand across caste lines. It has consciously worked to shed its image as a forward-caste party by promoting backward and EBC leaders. Appointing Prem Kumar as Speaker and elevating Kushwaha leader Samrat Choudhary to Deputy Chief Minister and Home Minister are part of this strategy.

Dr Rakesh Ranjan notes that the BJP focuses on developing leadership among smaller EBC groups with populations of two to three per cent. For instance, Bhim Singh, from an EBC group with over two per cent of the population, was sent to the Rajya Sabha. The BJP has greater bargaining capacity. It can offer positions at both the Centre and the state; JDU cannot match this.

While the BJP lacks a strong Koeri base, it has made inroads among Kushwahas. Since JDU and BJP contest elections together, this vote bank has primarily benefited the alliance so far.

Overall, the situation appears increasingly favourable for the BJP, and Nitish Kumar’s retirement now seems imminent.

Journalist Pushyamitra believes the BJP would prefer Nitish Kumar to step aside voluntarily. He argues that betraying or sidelining Nitish Kumar would alienate voters and harm the BJP’s prospects in Bihar. Therefore, waiting for time to take its course remains the BJP’s safest strategy.

Pushyamitra concludes, “Once Nitish leaves the chair, the power equation will change. The BJP will have its Chief Minister, and Nishant could be made Deputy CM. This way, JDU survives and continues under Nishant’s leadership. However, one section within JDU wants the party to emerge as number one before Nitish exits, by achieving a ‘century’ of seats, possibly by bringing Congress and AIMIM MLAs into the fold.”