Long Game Pays Off: BJP’s Bihar Project Nears Its Final Act

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s ascent in Bihar has been slow, strategic and, until recently, largely dependent on coalition politics. But with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar preparing to move to the Rajya Sabha and the possibility of a BJP chief minister for the first time in the state’s history, the party appears closer than ever to completing a political journey that began on the margins more than four decades ago.

For the BJP, analysts say, Bihar has long been a “dream project” — a state where it patiently built alliances, expanded its social base and waited for the moment when it could emerge as the dominant force.

Senior journalist and author Neerja Chowdhury says the development marks the culmination of a long-term strategy. “Bihar has been a dream project for the BJP for a long time. They planned for this, worked for this slowly, and alliances were the way to come up. They have also been very patient,” she told Outlook. .What surprised many observers, however, was not the transition itself but the speed with which it unfolded.“What has taken people by surprise is the timing and the haste with which it has happened,” Chowdhury said, referring to the sudden decision following Nitish Kumar’s move toward the Rajya Sabha. Nitish Kumar was sworn in as the state’s chief minister for the 10th time in November 2025. 

From Jana Sangh roots to coalition politics

The BJP’s presence in Bihar dates back to the 1950s when its predecessor, the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, began political work in the state. The party first tasted power in 1967 as part of Bihar’s first non-Congress coalition government.

After the Janata Party experiment collapsed in 1980, former Jana Sangh leaders formed the BJP, which contested its first assembly election in Bihar that year, winning 21 seats and about 8.4 percent of the vote. For the next decade, the party remained a relatively minor player. Bihar’s politics was dominated by powerful regional leaders and social coalitions, particularly after the rise of Lalu Prasad Yadav in the 1990s.

It was during this period that the BJP adopted a strategy that would shape its growth in the state: building alliances with regional parties that had deeper caste-based support.

The most significant of these partnerships was with Nitish Kumar’s Samata Party, later the Janata Dal (United). The alliance helped the BJP expand its political footprint while Nitish Kumar consolidated a broader social coalition.

Kartikeya Batra who is an assistant Professor at Azim Premji University and Visiting Fellow at CVoter Foundation says the BJP understood early that it could not grow in Bihar without expanding beyond its traditional voter base.

“The BJP always knew that its vote base in Bihar was limited,” Batra said.

“If you look at the numbers, the upper-caste vote base was roughly 10 to 12 percent. The party’s appeal beyond that was limited.”That is why the alliance with Nitish Kumar proved crucial.“Nitish Kumar became a very good alliance partner. In his first term he created a coalition that included women, extremely backward classes and Mahadalits,” Batra said, adding that this combination allowed the BJP to grow steadily while remaining in government.

Chowdhury echoed this assessment, describing Nitish Kumar as a central figure in the BJP’s rise in the state.“What worked for the BJP, the catalyst in Bihar, has been Nitish Kumar,” she said. “Whether they had 85 seats or 40-plus seats, Nitish Kumar was the factor. He understood Bihar. He had the pulse of Bihar.”

She noted that Nitish Kumar’s social coalition, which included extremely backward classes, Mahadalits and sections of Muslim voters, helped both his party and the BJP win elections.

The Modi Effect and Organisational Expansion

The equation began to shift after the rise of Narendra Modi at the national level. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP delivered a strong performance in Bihar, winning 22 parliamentary seats in the state, signalling its growing electoral strength.However, the alliance between the BJP and JD(U) broke ahead of the 2015 Bihar assembly elections after Nitish Kumar opposed Modi’s elevation as the party’s prime ministerial candidate. Kumar publicly stated that he was "uncomfortable" with Modi’s "secular credentials," leading to the end of their 17-year-old partnership in June 2013. The BJP contested the election independently but lost after Nitish Kumar joined hands with Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Lalu Prasad Yadav to form the Mahagathbandhan in 2015. The defeat reinforced a key lesson for the party.“They realised that Bihar is a tough nut to crack,” he said. “Nitish Kumar had a strong base, and that base was transferable to the opposition as well.” As a result, the BJP returned to the alliance repeatedly over the next decade.

“They kept bringing him back into the alliance,” Batra said. “There was a lot of patience and careful management within the coalition.”While alliances laid the groundwork, the BJP’s rise accelerated after Narendra Modi emerged as the party’s national face.“

Modi has been the chief campaigner,” Chowdhury said. “That certainly helped everywhere, and Bihar is no exception.”

She also pointed to the organisational strategies introduced by Union Home Minister Amit Shah.“The nuts-and-bolts policy that Amit Shah put into place, fine-tuning alliances and tying up loose ends, also helped,” she said.A key part of the BJP’s strategy was expanding beyond its traditional image as an upper-caste party. 

“The party consciously widened its base,” Chowdhury said. “It is not just a Brahmin–Baniya party anymore. They very consciously reached out to OBCs and extremely backward classes, and the prime minister himself being from an OBC background helped.”

This shift is reflected in electoral data.In the November 2025 Bihar assembly elections, the National Democratic Alliance secured a landslide victory with 202 seats in the 243-member house. The BJP emerged as the single largest party with 89 seats, its highest-ever tally in the state.The party also saw a slight rise in vote share, from 19.46 percent in 2020 to about 20.08 percent in 2025.

Much of this growth came from expanding support among extremely backward classes and Dalit voters. The BJP fielded a record number of candidates from EBC communities and benefited from the return of Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party to the NDA, which helped consolidate sections of Dalit voters.At the same time, the party retained its strong support among upper-caste voters, who remain its core constituency. 

A Sudden Transition

Despite the steady rise, the move toward a BJP chief minister in Bihar still came faster than many expected.Chowdhury believes the leadership transition was likely planned but executed earlier than anticipated. “I would have thought they would allow the dust to settle, maybe bring in his son and give the right signals,” she said, referring to earlier speculation about a gradual transition within the alliance.

Instead, the developments unfolded rapidly within months of the November 2025 election.

The sudden shift, analysts say, reflects the BJP’s confidence in its expanded social base and organisational strength in the state.Yet the transition also comes with challenges.

Chowdhury cautioned that the party will have to balance multiple social groups that now form its support base.“They will have to move very carefully,” she said. “On the one hand they have to ensure upper castes do not feel disaffected, and on the other they must not alienate the extremely backward classes and other groups they have brought into the coalition.”

A Turning Point In Bihar Politics

“The EBC vote, the Mahadalit vote, and the women vote were largely cultivated by Nitish Kumar,” Batra pointed out. “Now that he is stepping away from the centre of politics, the real challenge for the BJP will be whether it can retain those voters.”Beyond Bihar, the political significance of the development is considerable.“I think at the wider level it means one more big state coming under the BJP’s direct control,” Chowdhury said. “Bihar sends 40 Lok Sabha MPs. That is nothing to sniff at.”

For the BJP, the shift would consolidate its hold over the Hindi heartland,  a region that remains central to its national electoral strategy.It may also reshape the state’s political landscape.As regional parties adjust to the new balance of power, Bihar’s politics could increasingly move toward a bipolar contest between the BJP and the Rashtriya Janata Dal.For now, though, the moment represents the culmination of a long political project.