High Heat, Low Rain And Fertiliser Shortage Likely To Sting India’s Monsoon Farming

India is staring at a stressed farming season this southwestern monsoon between June and September, two recently-released reports on monsoon forecast warn. The fertiliser shortage due to the West Asian conflict may only add to the difficulties. 

 This may have crucial implications for the Indian economy. According to Government of India data, nearly 64 per cent of Indians depend on agriculture, which largely relies on the southwest monsoon. 

 In April, credit rating agency ICRA said that sub-par rainfall is expected to weigh on sowing of kharif crops, and consequently, agricultural output, farm cash flows and food prices. 

 This year, most parts of India are expected to record below-normal rainfall during the  southwestern monsoon. This alone can hurt India’s agriculture sector, as nearly half of India’s net sown area depends on rain-fed systems. The projection of simultaneous above-normal temperatures is likely to increase the stress on water resources and heat stress on crops. 

 Only about 55 per cent of India’s net sown area is covered by irrigation and the rain-fed areas are highly vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns. 

 Heat and water scarcity can shoot up farming costs by forcing farmers to spend more on diesel pumping, re-sowing and input costs. Among crops, soybean, pulses (tur, mod) and cotton face the worst threat, as they are least covered by irrigation. 

 What the reports say 

 One of the reports is the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)’s June 1 advisory on southwestern monsoon. It says the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over India is most likely to be below normal, estimated at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA). This indicates an increased likelihood of possible prolonged dry spells and uneven rainfall events, which may influence rainfed agricultural operations, it said. 

The 2026 monsoon rainfall projection stands in contrast with the above-normal rainfall seen in 2025 and 2024 at 108% of LPA each. 

The other report is a publication by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), a Kathmandu-based intergovernmental institution. Titled, The Hindu Kush Himalaya Monsoon Outlook 2026, it says higher temperatures and lower water availability can lead to heat stress in crops and livestock, reduce yields, and shorten growing seasons, particularly in already marginal mountain farming systems. 

It adds that elevated temperatures can also intensify evapotranspiration and the loss of soil moisture, further compounding impacts of droughts. Communities dependent on rain-fed and snowfed agriculture and mountain water sources are likely to face severe stress. 

Late response? 

 The government of India has already been late in issuing advisories for farmers, says Ramanjaneyulu GV, Executive Director, Centre for Sustainable Agriculture, a Hyderabad-based research organisation. He points out that the agriculture ministry started talking about issuing farming advisories only after the IMD’s June 1 report warned of farming impact, whereas farmers should have been advised in advance for green manuring and short duration crops.  

 “Nearly 60% of total crop production and farmers’ income comes from the kharif season. India’s rainfed areas have no second crop. If farming gets affected during this season, small and marginal farmers will be particularly hurt,” he told Outlook. 

 In agriculture, the gap between two rains is often more critical than reduction in overall rainfall. Intense rainfall over a smaller window followed by a long dry spell can be more harmful, as in the rainfed areas, most crops cannot withstand more than 10-12 days of dry spell, Ramanjaneyulu said.  

 Farmer leader Hannan Mollah echoes him. “That El Nino would impact the Indian monsoon has been talked about for about three months now. The irrigation repair work, mainly removing blockages, should have started a month earlier. Now such work has become an emergency,” said Mollah, vice president of All India Kisan Sabha, one of India's largest farmers’ organisations. 

High temperature and reduced water availability is also expected to decrease fertilizer-use efficiency, which could adversely affect crop productivity in areas receiving below-normal rainfall, said Abid Hussain, Senior Economist and Food Systems Specialist at ICIMOD. 

 However, drought-tolerant indigenous crops such as pearl millet, sorghum, finger millet, and legumes including moong and pigeon pea are expected to be more resilient and may incur comparatively lower yield losses. 

 High-risk areas

 According to Hussain, the states can be categorised in four groups from the perspective of risks. Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh face the greatest risk—they come under the ‘Extreme Heat and Strongly Below Normal Rainfall’ combination. Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh and Odisha face slightly lower risk. They come under the ‘Extreme Heat and Below Normal Rainfall’ category. 

 The risks are relatively lower in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Kerala and Goa—states that are projected to record ‘Strong Heat and Below Normal Rainfall’. The Himalayan states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir are also expected to see below normal rainfall along with moderate heat. 

 Both Ramanjaneyulu and Mollah raised two issues. First, due to the West Asian conflict affecting imports, a fertilizer shortage is going to add to the rainfall deficit impact. “Equitable distribution of fertiliser is going to be one of the biggest challenges for the government and they must act now if it does not want unrest to spread,” said Mollah, who is also a spokesperson of Samyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM), the farmers' platform that has been at loggerheads with the Narendra Modi government over the past few years. 

 In April, the government of India had assured a “strong supply position” continuing, with availability remaining “substantially higher than requirement.” This clearly indicates a strong opening position for the upcoming Kharif season, the government had said. However, in June, Karnataka is already witnessing long queues for fertilisers. Protests have taken place in Punjab as well.

 Ramanjaneyulu  and Mollah argue that apart from formulating and implementing long-term policies like incentivising heat tolerant and low water intensive crops, some immediate fixes are needed. Among them is keeping enough seeds for contingency (replacement) crops available for farmers.