Change Of Guard Or Reshuffle In Karnataka?

​​When the Congress stormed back to power in Karnataka in 2023, the party’s victory celebrations were quickly overshadowed by an all-too-familiar dilemma — who would lead the government. Would it be the seasoned socialist Siddaramaiah, with his mass appeal and administrative experience, or D.K. Shivakumar, the master strategist and loyal troubleshooter for the Congress high command?

The suspense stretched for days before the party finally chose Siddaramaiah. Yet, even at that moment, whispers in political circles suggested a deal had been struck — that Shivakumar would take over as chief minister once the government crossed its halfway mark. Now, as that moment arrives this November, the buzz has grown louder, layered with intrigue, shifting equations, and speculation about a possible “November revolution” within the Congress ranks.

Even before the administration reached its halfway mark, debates were rife in Karnataka’s political circles and local media about an impending change of guard, with some legislators openly taking sides. As things stand now, though a large section within the party anticipates a “November revolution” in the government, no one is quite sure what it actually means. Ardent supporters of D.K. Shivakumar believes the high command will honour his claim to the chief minister’s post, while the more cautious among them say his immediate demand is not for the top job but for a comprehensive cabinet reshuffle to accommodate his loyalists.

Siddaramaiah’s camp, on the other hand, remains confident that their leader will complete the full term with a cabinet of his choice. Despite the added significance of AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge hailing from the state, the Congress high command has so far maintained a studied silence, allowing speculation to thrive.

“There is going to be nothing like a November revolution — that’s all media speculation. But there will definitely be a cabinet reshuffle. Several youngsters who are capable of handling ministries will be accommodated,” said a Congress MLA who did not wish to be identified. However, he added with a touch of realism, “I don’t expect this to happen this month, because in the Congress party, discussions take time.”

The Congress leader also did not rule out the possibility of a modified 'Kamaraj Plan' being implemented in Karnataka.

What is 'Kamraj Plan'?

The original Kamaraj Plan, proposed by the then Congress president K. Kamaraj during the early years of Indira Gandhi’s tenure, called for senior ministers to resign from their posts and return to organisational work to strengthen the party. “Something similar, though not in the same form, could happen here,” the leader hinted, suggesting that some ministers may be asked to step down to make way for younger faces or to take up party responsibilities ahead of future elections.

The rumours of a power tussle in Karnataka Congress gained traction after Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar’s pointed remark that the party “does not make decisions by numbers.” Though seemingly offhand, the comment was widely interpreted as a rebuttal to the narrative pushed by Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s supporters — that he was “elected” by the Congress Legislature Party rather than “selected” by the high command. The remark exposed the underlying contest over political legitimacy that has shadowed the uneasy equation between the two leaders since the government took office.

Sensing the speculation his words had triggered, Shivakumar later softened his tone, saying he and Siddaramaiah were working together and that there was “nothing wrong” if the Chief Minister completed his full term. But seasoned Congress watchers and party insiders are reading between the lines. The Deputy CM’s attempt at damage control, they say, does little to conceal the tension within the leadership, even if it remains carefully managed for now.

“There will definitely be a change, but I don’t see a change in leadership. In all probability, both the CM and Deputy CM will continue,” Congress MLA Rizwan Arshad told Outlook. “Though there is no official intimation, I believe there will be a major cabinet reshuffle soon to make way for youngsters. The media and opposition are spreading rumours of a rift between the CM and Deputy CM, but both have repeatedly said they are in the same boat,” he added.

Arshad’s statement reflects what many in the party believe — that the top leadership may prefer to defuse factional tensions not by altering the power balance at the top, but by expanding representation within the cabinet. A reshuffle that accommodates emerging leaders could serve as a safety valve, keeping both camps invested in the government’s stability while signalling the high command’s authority in managing the delicate equilibrium between Siddaramaiah’s mass base and Shivakumar’s organisational control.

“The upcoming Delhi visit of Siddaramaiah and D.K. Shivakumar may prove crucial in determining what kind of changes the Congress leadership intends to make in the Karnataka cabinet. Ever since the party returned to power, group politics has dominated its functioning — and that, at some point, has to end,” observed senior journalist and political commentator B.S. Arun.

“With the kind of majority Siddaramaiah commands among the legislators, it is highly improbable that the high command will opt for a change of guard. But they are bound to placate Shivakumar. He continues to hold the post of KPCC president, and there are demands — ostensibly with Siddaramaiah’s tacit backing — to appoint a new chief." Arun adds

He further explains, "Shivakumar, however, is reluctant to relinquish that position, since much of his influence within the party flows from it. In all likelihood, both leaders may opt for a status quo, which, under the circumstances, is a win-win situation for both. Even if any change occurs, it will probably be limited to a minor cabinet reshuffle. I don’t see any kind of ‘Kamaraj Plan’ unfolding here.”

Karnataka remains of paramount importance to the Congress. The state’s decisive 2023 verdict restored power to the party after the BJP’s 2018 manoeuvre that had brought down the previous coalition government through a wave of defections. Yet, the Congress’s emphatic victory has since been overshadowed by factional undercurrents. How the party’s central leadership manages the delicate balance between Siddaramaiah’s mass appeal and Shivakumar’s organisational strength will be critical — especially as the countdown begins for the 2028 Assembly elections.