Beleaguered NC Set to Deliberate Jammu & Kashmir Bypoll Debacle As Voters Demand Development

On November 11, in the biting morning cold, 52-year-old Manzoor Ahmad joined the queue outside a polling station in Budgam, Kashmir. Traffic was sparse on the roads leading to the booth. The constituency had in the past seen people vote on sectarian lines based on their allegiance to the Shia or Sunni strand of Islam, but Manzoor cast the ballot keeping in mind with the area’s chronic lack of development in mind. The residents in the area have complained that they get contaminated water supply and even face frequent power cuts.

Three days later, when the results were declared, the ruling National Conference (NC) lost the seat. Former minister and senior NC leader Aga Syed Mahmood polled 17,098 votes, while the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi, won with 21,576. Actor-turned-politician Jibran Dar secured 7,152 votes, having campaigned on promises to improve transport links and build sports facilities for young people.

The by-election, which were held after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah had resigned from here to retain the Ganderbal seat, has not threatened the government’s stability; the NC-Congress alliance still commands the numbers to stay in power. Yet the result signals a shifting political mood in Kashmir. In contrast to the NC’s sweeping victory in the 2024 elections, widely viewed as a response to the revocation of Article 370 and the loss of Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood, this month’s vote highlighted growing frustration over poor development. Troubled by the setback, the NC is expected to convene its working committee to assess the defeat.

Manzoor says he voted for change. “We’re getting contaminated water. Mud settles in our utensils and we have to clean our storage tanks every week. Our district hospital is short-staffed,” he says.

Several people who voted say that they can’t repeatedly decide on the political issues, and this time the pledges on the developmental front made by candidates shaped their choice. Shahzad Ali, 28, another Budgam voter, says that the NC has failed to fulfill its promise of restoring Kashmir’s special position that it enjoyed under Article 370 or getting statehood for the Union Territory. “The party failed to deliver on all fronts,” he says, while reflecting on his voting choice.

In the Budgam segment, voting on sectarian lines has played a major role in the past elections, but this time, people’s voting preferences not only made NC lose its traditional bastion, but also exhibited the faith that people reposed on the candidate like Jibran, who fought purely on a developmental plank.

In the run-up to the polls, Jibran promised home delivery of rations to the people and facilities like running e-rickshaws in the areas of Budgam which lacked public transport, all these issues helping him strike a chord with the voters. Jibran, who contested as an independent candidate, got more votes than the old timers, Nazir Ahmad Khan, who got 3089 votes, and Muntazir Mohi-ud-Din, who secured 3,030 votes. Nazir fought on the ticket of Awami Itteehad Party (AIP), which is lead by jailed MP, Sheikh Rashid, who is also known as Engineer Rashid, while Muntazir had previously remained associated with PDP and Apni party led by former Minister, Altaf Bukhari.

Jibran says that people have reposed faith in him as his campaign was not based on lies, and he made pledges that could have been fulfilled. “I have not made such promises to people that couldn’t have been achieved. My campaign was focused on the development of the constituency, which has faced neglect,” he says.

Kashmir University’s Political Science professor, Peerzada Irshad, says that the divide within the NC, with the party’s own MP, Aga Ruhulla, refusing to campaign for it, played a key role in its defeat. “The people of the Shia sect were hurt because of the treatment meted out to Aga Ruhulla, and that vote went to others. But this vote was also against NC for its failure to deliver on promises that were made to people before the 2024 elections.”

The verdict this time was unlike that of the 2024 assembly elections or last year’s parliamentary results, when Ruhulla won the parliamentary seat from Srinagar with both Shias and Sunnis voting for him. The Budgam election verdict remains a major worry for the NC. The party is battling rebellion within its ranks, with Ruhulla often attacking CM Omar for failing to deliver on electoral promises and for being soft towards the BJP.

The NC also faces differences with its alliance partner, Congress, which has expressed its resentment for not leaving one Rajya Sabha seat for it in the elections last month. NC, which fielded candidates in all four seats of the upper house of Parliament, lost one to the BJP, which won by getting 32 votes, more than its present strength of 29 MLAs against NC’s 21 votes. The NC won the third seat by getting 31 votes, even as it claimed the support of independent MLAs while the Congress, with six MLAs and PDP’s three members, had also announced their support to the party.

The ruling party of Omar Abdullah has 41 MLAs, four short of the required majority. In last year’s assembly elections, they had also won on eight seats by a narrow margin.

In a constituency like Gulmarg, party leader Farooq Ahmad Shah won, getting 26984 votes, against 2793 votes which were polled by Apni Party leader Ghulam Hassan Mir. Similarly, the Trehgam assembly seat was won by former Minister and NC leader, Saifullah Mir, who secured 18002 votes against the 14,376 votes by the People’s Conference (PC) candidate, Bashir Ahmad Dar. In the other constituency of Pattan, the NC candidate, Javaid Riyaz, won by a slim margin of a few hundred votes. NC leader got 29,893 votes against 29,290 votes, which were polled by People’s Conference leader, Imran Raza Ansari. Similarly, in the case of the Gurez seat, senior NC leader, Nazir Ahmad Khan, bagged 8,378 votes, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader, Faqeer Mohammad Khan, got 7,246 votes in the contest.

From Kangan, NC’s Mian Mehar Ali won by a few thousand votes getting 28,907 votes as against 25,088 votes which were polled by PDP leader, Syed Jamat Ali Shah.

In the Budgam district’s Beerwah assembly constituency, NC candidate Shafi Ahmad Wani had a tough contest with Awami Itteehad party leader Nazir Ahmad Khan. While Wani secured 20,118 votes, Nazir got 15,957 votes. From Pampore, NC’s Hasnain Masoodi bagged 15,088 votes, while the runner-up, Zahoor Ahmad Mir of the PDP, received 12,325 votes.

Similarly, the winning margin difference was less than one thousand votes from the Devsar assembly segment, with the NC’s Peerzada Feroze Ahmad securing 18,230 votes, while the PDP’s Sartaj Madni received 17,390 votes.

NC MP, Chaudhary Ramzan, says that the party is looking to hold the working committee meeting, which is their highest decision-making forum, to deliberate over the loss in the Budgam polls. The meeting will be chaired by the former chief minister and party president, Farooq Abdullah. “ The meeting will be held shortly,” he says.

NC MLA, Abdul Majeed Larmi, however, attributes the defeat of the party in the Budgam by-elections to the "support extended to the other parties by New Delhi”. “We were fighting alone. All other candidates and parties campaigned against us only and joined hands to defeat NC." About the failure of NC on developmental planks, Larmi says, “We will fulfill all our electoral promises; there are still four years left in our term.”