Why Iran Is Turning US Inflation Into A Political Weapon Against Trump

Iranian officials have used English-language statements to highlight rising energy costs and economic pressures in the United States ahead of the midterm elections.

The messages appear aimed at the American public and highlight the economic impact of the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran, potentially increasing the political cost of the conflict for President Donald Trump, Al Jazeera reported.

Iran’s chief negotiator and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has used social media to criticise US officials over the economic costs of the war. On Wednesday, he shared a news report showing that annual inflation had risen to 3.7 per cent in September, alongside a collage of negative headlines about the US economy. The post also featured a comic strip from the Road Runner cartoon in which Wile E. Coyote builds a catapult that misfires and launches a boulder at him.

“Let’s ‘play the percentages’. Not in odds, but in the % increases,” Ghalibaf wrote in a message to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has been leading the sanctions campaign against Iran.

Bessent said last month that he represents ‘the house’, comparing the economy to a casino while discussing the national debt and bond market. Ghalibaf’s remark pointed to the rise in inflation and the continued climb in living costs linked to the war, despite Bessent’s assertions.

Days earlier, Ghalibaf had shared an image of a ghost shaped like a bell curve, alongside indicators showing rising diesel prices and declining housing affordability and consumer confidence.

Since the war began on 28 February, Iran has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, contributing to higher energy prices, Al Jazeera reported. In the United States, diesel prices stood at about $6.33 per gallon, while regular petrol averaged $4.33, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). Petrol prices were below $3 before the conflict.

Iran has intensified its attacks on vessels around the strait in recent days, after Trump and his aides repeatedly said the waterway was under US control. Rising energy prices have added to inflationary pressures in the United States. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest-rate range in September, before figures released in October showed annual inflation rising to 3.7 per cent in September.

In a letter to the American public on 29 September, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps accused Trump of lying about the cost of the war and the state of the US economy, dismissing the president’s claims that oil prices would soon fall sharply.

“Countries around the world have lost their faith in the US economy. Demand for American bonds has plummeted. In fact, countries are starting to offload their US bonds. Soon, the dam will break, and the economy will implode, causing, unfortunately, great pain for Americans for many many years,” the IRGC said.

“Americans need to wake up. They need to wrest control back from corrupt politicians. Now is the time, as the American political system is at its weakest.”

The November 3 US midterm elections are seen as a potential turning point in the conflict, largely because of what Trump might do afterwards. He has suggested that he would either strike a deal with Iran or return to a full-scale war after the vote, while dismissing the idea that the election will affect his Iran policy.

“They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterm election. What they don’t realise is that I’m not running,” Trump said at the United Nations General Assembly last month.

“I gave absolutely no credence and will not give credence to the election. When it comes to Iran, it doesn’t even enter my mind. The only thing that does is that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”

Trump’s Republican Party is seeking to retain control of the Senate and House of Representatives. The Democratic Party, which largely opposes the war with Iran, is mounting a strong challenge across the congressional map, including in areas that have been conservative strongholds for decades, such as Texas.

If the Democrats gain control of Congress, they could push for measures to curb Trump’s ability to continue the war, including by withholding funding for the military campaign.

There is debate within Iran about the potential impact of a Democratic victory. Some point to foreign policy hawks among the Democrats and argue that little would change, while others say a midterm defeat would leave Trump politically vulnerable and more constrained in his war powers.

Sina Toossi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that Tehran is looking to increase the political cost of the war for Trump by trying to talk directly to the American public.

“It’s not necessarily that they’re trying to get Democrats in power or manipulate US politics in a certain direction, other than just overall increasing the costs on this issue of the Iran war, and just playing that game of information warfare and getting out their own narrative and propaganda as well,” Toossi said.

He added that Iran is not hedging its bets either way and that the overall strategy of increasing the costs of the war continues regardless of the November result. Iranian officials have also published articles in state-affiliated outlets stressing the impact of the war on oil prices and the US economy, Al Jazeera reported.