How Trump's Midterm Setback Could Affect The Iran War?

The US midterm results have changed the political calculations surrounding US President Donald Trump's war with Iran. With Democrats gaining the power to challenge his military decisions, Trump faces greater pressure to reconsider his options, even as negotiations with Tehran remain uncertain. The outcome could shape whether Washington escalates the conflict or pursues a settlement.

The midterm results have also raised questions about how much room Trump has to continue the military campaign. According to two sources close to Gulf government circles cited by Reuters, the political pressure in Washington could make Republicans more willing to pursue a deal with Tehran rather than support a wider war.

Why Trump May Avoid Further Military Action

The US could still carry out limited strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. Such action may allow Washington to say it has achieved its military goals without continuing the conflict. China is also increasing its efforts to find a settlement.

But reaching a deal may not necessarily reduce tensions. Gulf analysts warned that if Iran emerges claiming victory while Trump appears to have lost, it could push him towards more unpredictable and aggressive decisions.

Another round of fighting could carry a heavy political cost for Trump, particularly as it would keep fuel prices high without necessarily delivering greater military gains.

However, negotiations may also prove difficult. If Tehran refuses to compromise or pushes for more concessions after sensing that Trump has been weakened politically, reaching an agreement could become much harder, Axios reported.

Trump may instead choose to maintain pressure on Iran without launching fresh attacks. This would mean keeping the naval blockade and economic sanctions in place to weaken the Iranian government while leaving the door open for talks. But this approach could take several months before producing any meaningful results.

Iran Remains On Alert

Two senior Iranian sources said the leadership remained on alert, concerned that Trump might respond to his political setback by ordering a military strike.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei also urged Iran not to show "even the slightest inclination towards submission", indicating that Tehran is unlikely to back down from its demands over the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump's political setback came just days after Israeli voters dealt a similar blow to Benjamin Netanyahu, another key figure behind the war. In the October 27 election, Netanyahu's right-wing bloc secured only 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, falling eight seats short of a majority. The result has left the Israeli prime minister struggling to stay in power.

With both leaders facing growing political uncertainty, the course of the war could become closely linked to their own political survival. They may see an escalation of the conflict as a way to escape their domestic troubles, even though such a move could carry serious risks.

"The US election results make a settlement more urgent for Trump but no easier for Iran," Ebtesam al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Centre in Abu Dhabi, told Reuters.

Al-Ketbi said Gulf countries hope the election results will help create conditions to end the war, but they are not willing to accept just any agreement.

She warned that a deal would only offer a temporary pause if it failed to guarantee free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, prevent Iran from imposing tolls or political restrictions on ships, and leave Gulf nations vulnerable to military threats. Such an outcome, she said, could trigger another crisis.

Meanwhile, Iranian leaders welcomed Trump's political setback but remained cautious. Iran's chief negotiator described the election outcome as a "NO TO WAR" result.

Oil Prices: An Important Factor

Oil prices also remain a key factor as Washington weighs its next move. Brent crude futures fell 1.03% to $93.65 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 1.29% to $86.98, as of 0211 GMT.

JPMorgan said the return of oil supplies from the Gulf had pushed the global market back into a surplus after months of disruption caused by the war. However, US crude, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week as demand reached its highest level in a year, according to the Energy Information Administration.