Ukraine Elections Amid War: Can Kyiv Hold A Vote?

Ukraine cannot currently hold national elections while martial law remains in force, but a vote could become possible if the country can overcome major security, legal and logistical obstacles. The issue has returned to the political agenda after sacked Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov called for wartime elections.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he is prepared to hold elections if the United States and Kyiv’s European allies can ensure the security of the vote. According to Reuters, any election would require Ukraine to create a legislative framework from scratch, including a new law covering its timing, rules and procedures, while also addressing the participation of millions of displaced Ukrainians and citizens living abroad.

What Security Conditions Would Be Needed?

Ukraine has been under martial law since February 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Elections cannot currently be held under the country’s martial-law framework, which bars them for security reasons.

The security situation would make organising a nationwide vote difficult. Fighting is raging along more than 1,200 km (750 miles) across Ukraine’s east, south and north, while hundreds of Russian drones and missiles regularly strike cities and towns far from the front line. Russian attacks on the power sector and other energy infrastructure have also disrupted electricity supplies.

Polls have consistently shown that a majority of Ukrainians oppose holding elections while the war continues.

Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said an air ceasefire, at the very least, would be a vital first step towards considering a vote. He said Ukraine would need to create the legislative framework for elections from scratch, including a new law setting out the timing, rules and procedures. Fesenko estimated that about six months would be required for the process.

Kyiv would also need to anticipate possible attempts by Russia to manipulate the election, analysts said.

Russia has said Zelenskyy is illegitimate because his term ran out in May 2024 and therefore argues that he cannot sign peace deals on Ukraine’s behalf. US President Donald Trump has previously argued that Ukraine should hold elections. He criticised the absence of a vote in an interview with Politico in December, saying it was time for an election.

How Would Ukraine Reach Millions Of Voters?

Millions of Ukrainians would face difficulties accessing polling stations. Updating the State Register of Voters to establish who could vote and where would be challenging, analysts and officials said.

More than 4.4 million Ukrainians had temporary protection status in the European Union as of the end of June, according to data cited by Reuters. Ukraine would therefore need to organise hundreds of polling stations across Europe to allow them to vote.

Just under 4 million Ukrainians are internally displaced within the country, according to the UN migration agency. Analysts said registering all displaced people would not be straightforward and could divert time and funds from defence.

About 1 million people serve in Ukraine’s defence forces. Arranging a free and fair vote on a drone-infested front line would be dangerous and may require legislative changes.

Voting would also be complicated by the territories occupied by Russia. Ukrainian officials estimated that, as of 2024, about 4.5 million adult Ukrainians remained behind those front lines in Russian-occupied territories.

Russia controls about 19% of Ukrainian territory and plans to hold its own elections there next month, which Ukraine has said would be illegal.

What Could An Election Mean For Zelenskyy?

Zelenskyy would have a strong chance of re-election, according to polls. His popularity in Ukraine was at about 90% early in the war, but has since declined to around 60%, depending on the poll.

Political analysts and pollsters said Zelenskyy’s approval ratings were damaged by a major corruption scandal in the energy sector last year, but have since recovered. Zelenskyy remains a frontrunner among traditional politicians.

Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain and formerly the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, would be a leading challenger to Zelenskyy, polls and analysts suggest. Presidential chief of staff and former head of military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov is another potential contender.

Fedorov, a 35-year-old tech-savvy reformer, has also risen in recent polls since his abrupt dismissal last month by Zelenskyy after six months as defence minister. His dismissal sparked a rare wave of wartime street protests.

Ukraine’s NV media cited prominent local pollster SOCIS as predicting Fedorov would receive around 13% of the vote, compared with 21% for Zaluzhnyi and 22% for Zelenskyy.

If Fedorov or Zaluzhnyi were to reach a second-round runoff, polls have shown that either could beat Zelenskyy.